338
FXUS61 KCAR 051751
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1251 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
- Increased rain chances across the north for tonight through
  Saturday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Anomalously warm temperatures tonight and Friday could
approach daily record highs.

2) Additional rainfall expected Friday into the weekend, though
amounts are still uncertain. The rainfall could help provide
some drought relief.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Anomalously warm temperatures tonight and
Friday could approach daily record highs.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A warm front associated with the northern low pressure system
will stretch across NB through tonight and Friday. The warm,
moist airmass will continue to move into the region with the SSW
flow. For tonight, low temps are expected to linger in the 50s
across the region. Friday will feature another round of
anomalously warm temperatures at least 10 degrees above average,
however increasing cloud cover ahead of the next low pressure
system and decreased warm air advection may lead to temperatures
not quite as warm as earlier in the week, limiting but not
completely eliminating the chance for reaching daily record high
temperatures.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Additional rainfall expected Friday into the
weekend, though amounts are still uncertain. The rainfall could
help provide some drought relief.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A low pressure system from the Great Lakes region moves east on
Friday. This system helps develop a coastal low that will move
NE along the New England coast. As of this update, the ensembles
seem to agree with the frontal boundary across Downeast on
Friday. Then as the low merges and intensifies, rain amounts
increase across the south. By Saturday, the low moves NE,
spreading rain across the region. The models are in better
agreement with the center of the low tracking along the Gulf of
Maine and into the Bay of Fundy through the weekend. This will
bring continued rain throughout the area. Total rain amounts are
still uncertain, but starting to look like 1 to 2 inches for the
south and 0.25 to 0.75 inches for the north.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Tonight...MVFR/IFR, in rain. SSW winds 5 to 10 kts. LLWS
possible over Downeast terminals.

Friday...MVFR/IFR at Downeast terminals, due to rain and low
ceilings. Mainly VFR at northern terminals. S/SW winds 5 to 10
knots, becoming NW at northern terminals, and variable and
southern terminals.

Friday night through Saturday...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR, due
to rain, low ceilings, and chance for fog Downeast. N/NE winds
5 to 10 knots.

Saturday night...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR, due to rain.
Variable winds 5 to 10 knots, with gusts 15 to 20 knots
possible during the afternoon.

Sunday...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR, due to rain tapering to
showers. NW winds 10 to 15 knots, with gusts to 20 knots
possible.

Sunday night-Monday...VFR/MVFR, from a chance of rain showers in
the north. W/NW winds 10 to 15 knots, with gusts 20 to 25 knots
possible.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Possible MVFR in the north. W winds 5-10
kts.

&&

.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for tonight with wind
gusts 20 to 25 kts on the coastal waters and seas around 5 ft.
Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels Friday through
Saturday. Rain and patchy fog Friday through Sunday. Winds and
seas approach SCA criteria on Sunday into Monday. SW winds
Friday, shifting to the N/NW by Sunday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Persistent warm air advection into the forecast area over the
next two days will lead to temperatures 10 to 20 degrees above
normal, and temperatures could approach daily record highs.

Thursday, November 5
CAR: Record 73 set in 2022... Forecast 64
HUL: Record 70 set in 2022... Forecast 66
MLT: Record 72 set in 2022... Forecast 65
BGR: Record 73 set in 2022... Forecast 68

Friday, November 6
CAR: Record 72 set in 2024... Forecast 61
HUL: Record 71 set in 2022... Forecast 62
MLT: Record 72 set in 2024... Forecast 62
BGR: Record 75 set in 2024... Forecast 65

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Friday
     for ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ARL
AVIATION...ARL