829
FXUS61 KCAR 272334
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
734 PM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build to our south tonight then slide to the
east on Thursday. A new upper low will drop south through Quebec
on Friday then slowly cross the area through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
7:30 PM Update...Radar shows scattered showers over the Saint
John Valley and Downeast at this time. This activity will
diminish over the next couple of hours as daytime heating is
lost. Expect clearing skies after that across the region.
Updated the Aviation section to reflect the 00z TAFs.

Previous Discussion...
Approaching short wave and diurnal heating has led to extensive
cumulus cloud fields cross much of the forecast area this afternoon.
Starting to see isolated showers on area radars, so have included
isolated to widely scattered showers until around sunset.

Any lingering showers will end by early this evening giving way to
mainly clear to partly cloudy skies through the overnight. Patchy
river valley fog is possible. Lows tonight will range from the lower
40s across the north Maine Woods and colder valleys of the north.
Elsewhere lows will range from the mid 40s to around 50 degrees.

Upper ridging builds in early Thursday ahead of the upper level low
dropping south across western Quebec province. West to Southwest
flow is expected on Thursday. Expect mostly sunny skies with
some afternoon diurnal cumulus expected. It will be a few
degrees warmer on Thursday with afternoon highs in the lower to
mid 70s, but a bit cooler along the immediate coast with more of
an onshore flow expected.

The upper low continues to dig southward through eastern Quebec and
across the northeastern portion of the nation. The flow becomes
more south to southeast Thursday night with partly cloudy skies
expected. Will have to watch for the potential for stratus deck
advecting in toward the coast and across downeast areas later
Thursday night, as there are some hints in the guidance of the
possibility. Lows Thursday night are generally expected to range
from the upper 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A cutoff low will approach from the west very slowly from Friday
into Saturday, only traveling from around Ottawa early Friday
to Quebec City late Saturday. Rain chances increase from west to
east through the day Friday into Friday evening, then rain
chances remain fairly high later Friday night into Saturday.
Still a fair amount of uncertainty on how things progress.
Looking into a bit more detail, there is a weak occluded front
that moves through Friday night into early Saturday with perhaps
a weak triple point low developing. Some uncertainty on how
this evolves and thus the speed/location of the heavier rain
along the front. All things considered, looking for in general
around a half inch of rain Friday through Saturday, but with a
fair amount of variability with some areas seeing as little as a
tenth of an inch and others up to around an inch. Odds slightly
favor the heavier totals being over the N/NW, but the signal
for the disparity in north vs south rain totals is not nearly as
pronounced as with the last system, where some areas Downeast
missed out on the rain completely. Some thunderstorms possible
with this system, but not expecting anything strong or severe.

Expecting some advection fog, especially along the coast, Friday
night with the moist onshore flow. Some modest southerly breezes
especially Friday afternoon as the occluded front approaches,
with 10-15 mph and gusts to 20 mph. Relative humidities look to
be around 45-65 percent Friday until the rain moves in later in
the day or early evening and RHs rise.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Upper level low appears to move over us Saturday night and east
of us by late Sunday, but there is still some uncertainty on the
speed/timing at which the upper low moves east. This will
influence how quickly we dry out late Sunday into Monday. Likely
dry areawide by Monday evening. Then warmer and drier weather
with above average temperatures is likely for Tuesday/Wednesday
as upper level ridging builds over the region.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Mainly VFR expected at all the terminals tonight through
Thursday. BCFG is possible late tonight, mainly KPQI/KHUL, with
but confidence is low. VCSH at KCAR, KPQI, and KBHB through 02z.
TS not expected.

VFR is expected Thursday night. Some indications that a low cloud
deck could develop vicinity KBHB with IFR possible after 06Z Friday,
but this is beyond the current TAF valid period.

W wind 5 to 10 kt this evening becoming light and variable tonight.
S to SW wind around 10 kt Thursday, and then light S to SE Thursday
night.

SHORT TERM:
Friday...VFR, possibly dropping to MVFR late in the day BHB/BGR.
S wind 10-15 kts with gusts to 20 kts.

Friday Night...MVFR/IFR in low clouds, rain, and possible fog.
SE wind 5 kts.

Saturday...MVFR/IFR early, improving to VFR for most areas. Variable
wind 10 kts or less.

Saturday Night and Sunday...Generally VFR Downeast, with MVFR
or VFR north. W/NW wind around 5 kts.

Sunday Night and Monday...Mostly VFR with NW wind 5 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Wind/seas are expected to remain below SCA levels
through Thursday night.

SHORT TERM: Below small craft advisory through the period. Areas
of fog Friday night.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...TWD/Clark
Short Term...Foisy
Long Term...Foisy
Aviation...TWD/Clark/Foisy
Marine...TWD/Clark/Foisy