499
FXUS61 KCAR 090015
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
815 PM EDT Tue Sep 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
- 8 PM Update: With smoke aloft streaming in from the north,
  efficient radiational cooling may become difficult to achieve.
  Temperatures should still quickly drop, especially with the
  decrease in winds, however there is room for temperatures to
  not drop quite as low as originally forecast. Still, the frost
  advisory remains as there is still a good chance for
  temperatures to drop low enough for at least patchy frost
  development.

- A Frost Advisory has been issued in the north for tonight due
  to increased confidence in cold temperatures.

- A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for coastal and
  intercoastal waters and a Gale Watch has been issued for outer
  waters Wednesday night into Thursday due to increased
  confidence in strong winds over the waters.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Chilly overnight with a chance for frost in the north.

2) Soaking rain is expected areawide Wednesday night.

3) Strong gusty winds expected with the rain Wednesday night and
again during the day Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Chilly overnight with a chance for frost in the
north.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Cool airmass moves over northern Maine tonight. There is
a chance for atmospheric decoupling early in the night, as skies
clear out. This will help temperatures to drop into the 30s.
Potential for northern areas in Aroostook to drop into the low-
to-mid 30s, which will lead to some frost development. Frost
chances are going to be highly dependent on the timing of some
high level clouds moving in late tonight into early
Wednesday morning. If the clouds move in earlier in the night,
temperatures will stabilize faster. If clouds move in slower,
then there is more time for the temperatures to drop with clear
skies. Currently, the set up looks more favorable for
decoupling, and thus colder temperatures.

The next chance of frost comes Friday night.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Soaking rain is expected areawide Wednesday
night.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A large surface low pressure system in north Canada is expected
to bring a strong warm front early Wednesday night and the cold
front quickly exiting the region late Wednesday night. Thus,
rain should begin early Wednesday evening and taper off around
sunrise Thursday. The rain will be occasionally moderate, and
cannot rule out an embedded thunderstorm with some instability
aloft. As of this update, rainfall totals should reach between
0.5 to 0.75 inches throughout the region. Localized higher
totals are possible with heavier convection. Flooding is not a
concern with this system, but rain amounts should give some
relief to the drought.

As the system exits on Thursday, some wrap around moisture from
the system could bring some isolated showers through the north.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Strong gusty winds expected with the rain
Wednesday night and again during the day Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
As mentioned above, we are looking at a potent low pressure
system passing to the north of the forecast area with strong
winds aloft. This will bring strong gusts in the middle of the
night Wednesday night from the south, and again during the day
Thursday from the west. The winds aloft will be the strongest
Wednesday night with up to about 55 kt at 850mb, but it is very
unlikely that these winds will reach the ground due to stable
low levels that are decoupled from the atmosphere aloft. More
realistically, we are looking at gusts as high as about 30 mph
from the south Wednesday night in some land areas, with gusts
potentially up to 35 mph. Over the waters Wednesday night, a
bit of a low level jet develops just offshore, bringing strong
gusts, and potentially gales on outer waters. During the day
Thursday, though the winds aloft aren`t quite as strong, the
winds have a much better chance at mixing down to the ground
thanks to cold advection aloft with steeper lapse rates, plus
the fact that it`s daytime. Gusts to about 35 mph from the west
appear likely Thursday with the potential for up to 40 mph
gusts, and with wet soils after Wednesday night`s rain plus
leaves on the trees, there could be very isolated tree
damage/isolated power outages. Gusts over the waters begin to
die down a bit as the low level jet weakens throughout the day
Thursday. It remains breezy Thursday night/Friday, though not
quite as much as Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Tonight - Wed...VFR. Winds light and variable tonight, becoming
S 5 to 15 kts Wed.

Wed night...MVFR/IFR with localized LIFR in rain. S winds 10-20
kts with gusts up to 25 kts. LLWS expected.

Thursday...Mainly VFR, with a chance of MVFR north in the
morning. Windy with W winds 15-20 kts with gusts to 30 kts.

Thursday Night and Friday...VFR with W winds 10-20 kts, gusting
25-30 kts during the day Friday.

Friday Night and Saturday...VFR with light winds.

Saturday Night and Sunday...VFR with S winds 5-15 kts during the day Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Conditions below Small Craft Advisory levels today through
Wednesday. Winds increase quickly Wed night, reaching SCA gusts
before midnight for intercoastal and coastal waters. By
midnight outer waters should increase to gale force. A Gale
Watch has been issued for this area. Seas peak in the range of
5-9 ft late Wednesday night into Thursday morning and then
gradually subside. Winds gradually shift to the NW for Friday
and become variable and light Saturday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Wednesday for MEZ001-002-
     004.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM Wednesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday
     for ANZ050>052.
     Gale Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday morning
     for ANZ080-081.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AES/ARL/JS
AVIATION...AES/ARL/JS