828
FXUS61 KCAR 310625
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
225 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in today and remain over the area
through Tuesday. On Wednesday, an upper level trough will move
overhead, followed by a ridge on Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Weather will remain quiet through Monday as the ridge sets up
overhead. Temperatures will be slightly cooler than normal with
northerly flow bringing a cooler air mass aloft. Highs on Sunday
will be in the low 70s and overnight lows will be in the mid-40s
to low 50s. Highs will warm slightly on Monday as the main
portion of the ridge moves overhead. The main forecast
challenge will be the set up of fog and low clouds overnight.
Abundant low level moisture from the rain yesterday and
radiational cooling will allow fog to set up both nights. Have
fog mainly along the river valleys both nights, but more
widespread fog could be possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Monday night: High pressure remains in the region. Upper model
soundings show a layer of mid and high clouds moving from south
to north with the low pressure system moving across the waters.
These clouds will keep temps from dropping below the low 50s.
Decided to keep patchy fog for river valleys in the forecast for
later in the night.

Tuesday: The upper level trof should gradually move across New
England, bringing some shortwave energy to the region. In
addition, a warm front is expected to stretch north of the
state, switching winds from the S. This should produce cloudy
skies and possible rain showers in the north. Temps should be in
the mid to upper 70s across the region.

Tuesday night: The shortwave should gradually exit the region
with some rain showers lingering in the north before midnight.
The could cover should keep temps in the low 50s across the
region.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A large occlusion over the Great Lakes is expected to move a
cold front into the area by Friday. Extended models have lost
consistency through the latest model runs with the timing of the
rain showers suffering. The GFS has sped up the progression of
the front while the Euro and Canadian have kept the progression
slightly slower. In addition, the Euro shows a developing low
pressure center from the triple point of the occlusion, while
the GFS and Canadian show a weakening front. Decided to keep the
NBM forecast for this update, though did increase winds due to
the tightening pressure gradients. Temps on a warming trend
until the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Clouds and low fog are making the northern TAF sites
challenging with the current package. Conditions seem to be
intermittently lowering to IFR so have included tempo groups to
indicate this. Would not be surprised to see fog become denser/a
little more widespread around sunrise before dissipating later
in the morning. Southern TAFs are expected to remain VFR through
the period. Light NW winds.


SHORT TERM: Monday Night...VFR. May be some patchy valley fog
Monday night into Tuesday morning, which could reduce
visibility. Winds light and variable.

Tuesday - Tuesday Night...VFR with light winds. Potential for
some residual valley fog early Tuesday morning.

Wednesday - Thursday...VFR, with a period of MVFR at northern
terminals from light rain showers on Wednesday. Winds 5-10 kts
from the W/SW on Wednesday, before becoming S on Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain below small craft advisory
through the period. Light NW winds becoming southerly on Monday.
Seas 1 to 3 feet through the period.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels through
this period.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...LF
Short Term...LaFlash
Long Term...LaFlash
Aviation...LF/LaFlash
Marine...LF/LaFlash