986
FXUS61 KCAR 150303
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1103 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will begin to cross the region overnight, then
exit across the Gulf of Maine Wednesday. High pressure builds in
from the west through Friday night. A warm front lifts to the
north Saturday, as the high slides offshore through the weekend.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Update...
The High Surf Advisory has been allowed to expire. A cold front
currently approaching the Saint Lawrence River Valley will
begin to cross the forecast area overnight. Generally expect
partly cloudy skies across the forecast area overnight, along
with patchy fog. Isolated showers are also possible late across
northern areas. Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid
to upper 30s north, to the lower to mid 40s Downeast. Have
updated to adjust for current conditions along with expected
overnight temperatures, clouds and shower chances.

Previous Discussion...
On Wednesday, an upper-level low begins to dive south through
eastern Maine bringing anomalously cool air aloft. As upper-
level energy rotates around the upper-low this should aid in the
development of some isolated convective showers. Rain showers
are most likely but cannot rule out graupel mixing in if there
is more robust convection. Some snow may also mix in at the
higher elevations. Winds will be blustery Wednesday with gusts
20-30 mph. Overnight Wednesday, gusty winds and showers will
continue as the upper-low moves south over the area. Snow
showers are also possible Wednesday night but are unlikely to
produce any accumulation. How cold temperatures drop will be key
as the NBM has much of northern Maine getting to or dipping
below 32 but other models show warmer solutions including the
NAM which is generally a colder solution. It is possible the NBM
could be underdoing the mixing from the elevated winds.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A closed low slowly tracks southeast from the Gulf of Maine Thursday
and Thursday night. Any showers over eastern zones should tapper off
from NE to SE by late Thursday night. There should be gusty NW winds
Thursday with gusts up to 25-35mph Thursday and 20-30mph Thursday
night. Highs on Thursday should be around 5 degrees below normal and
lows Thursday night near normal.

Deep layered ridging builds in on Friday, it should be dry with
decreasing cloud cover as a result. Highs on Friday should be near
normal.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Deep layered ridging builds in Friday night-Saturday night so it
should be dry - with the possible exception of maybe a passing
shower on Saturday across the North as the surface warm front passes.

The axis of the deep layered ridge exits to the east on Sunday,
allowing for an increase in cloud cover. Depending on exactly how
fast it moves to the east, cannot completely rule out some showers
over far western zones late in the day.

The region is under SW flow aloft Sunday night, then S-SE flow aloft
on Monday as a closed low negatively tilts as it approaches from the
west. Models differ on the timing of when and where this system
becomes negatively tilted, and hence when the associated
precipitation moves into the area. The majority of ensembles delay
precipitation until Monday, so have limited pops Sunday night to
chance, with likely pops on Monday.

The models then continue to differ on the timing/location of the
closed low Monday night and Tuesday - this will impact the timing of
the end of any precipitation. For now have likely pops mainly for
Monday evening then chance pops into Tuesday.

Temperatures should be near normal Thursday night, then above normal
Friday-Monday.
&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Variable conditions in any patchy fog overnight.
MVFR ceilings possible Wednesday morning. Otherwise, VFR
overnight into Wednesday. Isolated showers later tonight into
Wednesday. VFR/MVFR Wednesday night with isolated to scattered
showers. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northwest around
10 knots overnight. North/northwest winds 10 to 15 knots with
gusts up to around 25 knots Wednesday into Wednesday night.

SHORT TERM:
Thursday...MVFR or lower probable at eastern terminals and possible
at southern terminals. NW winds G20-30KT likely.

Thursday night through Saturday night...Becoming VFR throughout
Thursday night. NW winds G20-30KT probable Thursday night, then NW-N
winds G15-25KT possible on Friday.

Sunday...Most likely VFR, with a very low chance of MVFR conditions
late at far western terminals.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through 5 AM
Wednesday for the intra-coastal waters and through 8 PM
Wednesday for the remainder of the waters. Isolated showers
through early morning, then isolated/scattered showers
Wednesday. Sea surface water temperature are in the 53-55F
range from the Downeast coast out 25nm and east to the Hague
Line including Passamaquoddy and Penobscot bays.

SHORT TERM: There is a 50 percent chance for Gale gusts over the
coastal ocean waters Thursday and Thursday night, so in
collaboration with GYX, have issued a gale watch during this time
frame. SCA conditions are likely with a small chance of gale gusts
on the intra-coastal waters. At this time, the chances for gales on
the intra-coastal waters is to small to mention in the HWO.

All waters should see SCA conditions on Friday, and possibly into
Friday night on the coastal ocean waters. The weekend should feature
sub-SCA conditions on all waters.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ050-051.
     Gale Watch from Thursday morning through Friday morning for
     ANZ050-051.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ052.

&&

$$


Near Term...CN/SM
Short Term...PM
Long Term...PM
Aviation...CN/PM
Marine...CN/SM/PM