989
FXUS61 KCAR 150748
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
348 AM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain over the area today while weak low
pressure tracks off the Mid-Atlantic coast passing well south of
our region. High pressure will slide east of the area Monday
into Tuesday. Low pressure will pass north of the area early
Wednesday, with another low approaching from the west on
Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Weak surface high pressure will extend from Ontario and Quebec
east across our region and into the Maritimes today. A very
subtle shortwave disturbance sliding in from the west northwest
will cross the area around midday. Slightly cooler air pooled
in the mid levels will produce a bit of cape up to around 80
J/KG this afternoon resulting in some isolated spotty convection
up to around 12-15K ft. This will bring very isolated showers
with the best chance for a shower over east central areas this
afternoon. However, the convection will likely not be deep
enough for thunder. Otherwise, today will turn out sunny to
partly cloudy and seasonable.

The upper level disturbance will move away into the Maritimes
this evening leaving the sky mostly clear. This will bring a
cool calm night but not as cold as recent nights with lows from
the mid 40s north to the upper 40s Downeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Monday, the surface high slides off to the east and we start to
see return flow bringing warmer temperatures and higher
dewpoints over the region. Temperatures on Monday will be
seasonable, with highs on Tuesday trending above normal.
Deterministic NBM is running on the low side of the percentile
ranges, so have nudged highs on Mon and Tues closer to the 50th
percentile. Dry weather will continue Monday, but Monday night
the warm air advection over the cooler waters will increase
chances of marine fog overnight, and this become more
widespread inland through the week. On Tuesday, chances of
showers increase as the high continues to move eastward and the
atmosphere destabilizes. Thunderstorms are possible across the
Crown of Maine, but CAPE is somewhat limited so this will not be
a widespread event.&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Warm, humid and unsettled weather will continue through
Thursday, when a cold front will cross the region. Again,
deterministic NBM was running a little low compared to
percentiles, so nudged the forecast more towards the 50th
percentile for Wednesday and Thursday. Chances of showers and
thunderstorms will increase through the period, with the highest
chance for more widespread thunderstorms occurring on Thursday,
with the greatest instability ahead of the cold front. CAPE at
this point still remains limited, but 0-6km shear ahead of the
front is fairly high, so the possibility of stronger storms
exists. Friday into Saturday the forecast becomes a little bit
hazier, with greater uncertainty on whether the low will move
eastward quickly, drying conditions over most of Maine, or
linger and bring another shortwave through, indicating a wetter
pattern for the start of the weekend. Either way, temperatures
are likely to be more seasonable for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are expected across the area today and
tonight. Winds light SW today becoming calm tonight.

SHORT TERM:
Mon-Mon night: VFR north. Southern terminals, starting VFR,
becoming MVFR or possibly IFR late with low stratus/FG moving
in. S winds 10 to 15 kts.

Tues - Tues night: MVFR cigs building in from south to north,
falling further towards IFR late Tues night. S winds 5 to 10
kts. Slight chance for thunder across the north Tues afternoon
but confidence is low in TS on station.

Wed: MVFR with rain showers and a slight chance for thunder at
northern terminals. Southern terminals MVFR trending IFR in low
clouds and FG. SW winds 5 to 10 kts with gusts to 20 kts,
especially around any thunderstorms.

Wed night: MVFR with lingering rain showers in the north, IFR in
low clouds and FG across the south. SW winds around 5 kts.

Thurs: MVFR/IFR in showers and thunderstorms. S winds 5 to 10
kts gusting to 20 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Wind and seas will be below SCA today and tonight as
high pressure remains across the waters.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will likely remain below small craft
advisory levels through the middle of the upcoming week. Chance
for marine fog increases throughout the week with the potential
to lower visibility overnight.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Bloomer
Short Term...LF
Long Term...LF
Aviation...Bloomer/LF
Marine...Bloomer/LF