408
FXUS61 KCAR 240739
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
339 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
- 3:39AM UPDATE...Have extended the Dense Fog Advisory through
  to 9AM. Dense Fog Advisory now in effect for Northwest and
  Northeast Aroostook County, All of Washington County and
  Coastal Hancock County. Webcams, ASOS/AWOS are showing rapidly
  increasing coverage of fog with visibilities dropping to
  1/4mi or lower in spots. Expecting this to last till an hour
  or so after sunrise. No other changes at this time.

- Increased precip/thunder chances for North Woods Monday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Areas of dense fog into the morning, and possibly again Monday
night. Fog will impact travel conditions.

2) Chance of showers through Monday afternoon, with possibly
some thunderstorms in Northern Maine Monday afternoon.

3) Chance of showers and thunderstorms north of Bangor Tuesday
and mainly across northern Aroostook Wednesday.

4) Thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon and evening,
some of which may be on the locally strong side with gusty
winds and small hail.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Areas of dense fog into the morning, and
possibly again Monday night. Fog will impact travel conditions.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Fog is the main concern. Areas of fog and low clouds are moving
through the area, especially along the coast. The best chance
of the dense fog is near the Downeast coast, but can`t rule out
significant fog further inland too. The fog should generally
dissipate during the day Monday, but fog appears likely again
Monday night. There may be a slightly later onset to the fog in
the evening Monday, but still think the fog could be locally
dense by later Monday night. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect
until 9 AM Monday for Southern and Central Washington as well as
coastal Hancock counties.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Chance of showers through Monday afternoon,
with possibly some thunderstorms in Northern Maine Monday
afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
Areas of drizzle moving from south to north along with the fog
and low clouds overnight. Some drying expected into Monday
morning, but with a bit of clearing, expect enough instability
for showers and storms to fire off by about midday in north and
west areas. Scattered showers/storms are expected, with the best
chance being inland away from the more stable marine layer.
That said, even in the wetter north, only going with a 40-60
percent chance of showers/storms, best chance in the western
North Woods along the Quebec border. Monday will not be a
rainout by any means. Cannot rule out a couple of the storms
being on the stronger side with gusty winds, and there is some
uncertainty how many storms can fire in the first place. Bangor
and Downeast should remain dry, save for a shower or two.


KEY MESSAGE 3...Chance of showers and thunderstorms north of
Bangor Tuesday and mainly across northern Aroostook Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
The axis of an upper level closed low that is gradually
weakening as it passes to the north, then northeast Tuesday-
Wednesday, should bring with it sufficient instability in the
low-mid levels with its associated cold-pool aloft, that it
should produce scattered showers in areas north of Bangor on Tuesday.

By Tuesday afternoon, low to mid level lapse rates should be
around 8C/km, with a few hundred J/kg of CAPE and around 35-45
kt of bulk shear. This should produce some strong storms across
the region north of Bangor. Wet bulb zero heights are around
7500-8500 ft away from the coast so the greatest risk would be
small hail.

On Wednesday, as the upper low weakens and retreats to the
northeast, the threat will be limited to the North, with low
level lapse rates around 7.5-8 C/km, around 500-1000 J/kg of
CAPE and around 20-30 kt of shear. Once again strong storms are
possible with mainly isolated storms across northern Aroostook.
The wetbulb zero height is a little higher at 8500-9000 J/kg,
but still low enough to support hail. With the stronger CAPE,
the main threat is both strong winds and small hail in the
strongest convection across the North on Wednesday.


KEY MESSAGE 4...Thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon and
evening, some of which may be on the locally strong side with
gusty winds and small hail.

KEY MESSAGE 4 DESCRIPTION...
A cold front crosses the area Friday afternoon and evening on
the leading edge of a full latitude trough pushing into the
region, with the added support of a northern stream shortwave
pushing through the trough around that time. With the potential
for 500-1500 J/kg of CAPE and 25-35KT of bulk shear, there is a
risk of some locally strong thunderstorms ahead of the front,
with the main threat strong gusty winds.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 12z This Morning...Mainly IFR/LIFR conditions with brief
periods of VLIFR. BR/FG and low cigs. Winds generally S and less
than 5kt. VCSH possible.

Today...IFR/LIFR becoming MVFR mid morning then VFR by midday.
Might take longer to VFR at BHB. VCSH/-SHRA mainly for afternoon
at northern terms. Low confidence -SHRA at BGR. PROB30 for
northern terms (FVE,CAR,PQI and HUL) for -TSRA this afternoon. S
winds 5-10kt with gusts up to 15kt.

Tonight...VFR becoming MVFR/IFR cigs with BR/FG developing and
possible LIFR/VLIFR vsby. Winds light and variable.

Tuesday...Chance of IFR/LIFR early Tuesday AM at all terms in
low cigs and/or FG. VFR mid morning into the afternoon. MVFR or
lower possible in any stronger convection north of KBGR in the
afternoon. SW winds 5-10kt, gusty winds in any storms possible.

Tuesday night...VFR. Light and variable winds.

Wednesday...VFR. Possible MVFR vsby due to -SHRA in the
afternoon at KFVE/KCAR/KPQI.

Wednesday night...VFR. Light and variable winds.

Thursday...VFR. S winds 5-15kt with gusts up to 25kt. LLWS
possible late afternoon.

Thursday Night...VFR becoming MVFR/IFR with -SHRA developing. S
winds 5-15kt. LLWS possible.

Friday: MVFR/IFR in the early morning, then VFR mid morning,
then MVFR or lower possible in any showers or thunderstorms in
the afternoon. LLWS possible. S winds 5-15kt with higher gusts
possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Fog over the waters through Monday night. S/SE winds 15 kts or
less and seas 2-4 ft are forecast on all waters out to 60NM
through Friday. There is a chance for dense fog on the waters
Tuesday morning, reducing visibility to less than 1 nm. There is
the chance for some thunderstorms over the waters late on
Friday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for MEZ001-002-
     017-029-030-032.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JS/JMM
AVIATION...JS/JMM