825
FXUS61 KCAR 031819
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
219 PM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak shortwave moves through today with high pressure on
Thursday. An occluded/cold front passing through on Friday. A
secondary cold front moves through the area Saturday with high
pressure building in behind it for early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Today, upper-level trough moves through ahead of deep trough in
Canada. There is a potential for some rain and thunderstorms in
the north and west this evening. Some areas, particularly
around Aroostook county, will have around 1000-1,500J/kg of
CAPE this evening, along with minimal CIN, and very favorable
low-level lapse rates. Already seeing some thunder moving into
far western Maine. Daytime heating could help storms to fire up,
but lack of low-level shear, average mid-level lapse rates, and
PWATS being only around an inch, not expecting much in terms of
severe storm development. A few thunderstorms, with an isolated
strong one, are more likely. Southerly marine flow will keep
Downeast relatively dry and cloudy. Skies clear out overnight,
mainly in the north. With high relatively humidity and light
winds, river valley fog may develop again tonight. Southerly
flow could cause developing low-stratus/fog tonight as well.
Overnight low temperatures in the 50s.

Tomorrow, ridging builds back in, leading to dry and calm
conditions. Mostly clear to partially cloudy skies. Southerly
winds. Deep trough from the west moves east toward New England,
with an associated cold front. Rain ahead of the front start to
push in late Thursday night/early Friday morning. Rain moves in
from west to east. Southerly flow continues to cause some low-
stratus and fog along the Downeast region and coastline.
Overnight lights in the 50s throughout northern and central
Maine.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
On Friday, a pre-frontal trough will approach from the west,
bringing showers to the western portion of Maine. This trough
will weaken as it moves into the upper level ridge, so showers
will take a while to move across the region, also becoming less
widespread as they do. Winds will increase in southwesterly flow
ahead of the main front, so have increased winds slightly
beginning Saturday morning from the NBM. On Saturday, the main
front will amplify and approach the region, bringing a period
of moderate to potentially heavy rainfall across the area. This
will set up in a relatively narrow band, and there is a moderate
amount of uncertainty in location. This means that the spread
in potential QPF is fairly wide, in particular for any point
location. However, confidence in wetting rainfall occurring
somewhere across the region is moderate to high. During the day
on Saturday, instability will increase in the main rain band,
creating the possibility of embedded thunderstorms. This may
enhance localize rainfall amounts. By Saturday evening, the
chance for thunderstorms will decrease with the rapid loss of
daylight.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Rainfall will continue Saturday night, slowly progressing
eastward. By Sunday morning, the main cold front will move
through and rain will become lighter and more showery in nature.
This will start a general cooling trend for the next several
days, with highs only reaching the mid-60s to low 70s and lows
dipping into the mid-40s to upper 30s by Monday morning. After
showers dissipate on Sunday, ridging will return, bringing quiet
weather through mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL: VFR conditions today. Skies partially
clear, with some cumulus clouds. Best chance for rain showers,
thunderstorms, and a period of lower cloud ceilings at KFVE
this afternoon into evening. Slight chance for these storms to
make their way over to KCAR and KPQI this evening. S winds today
5-10kts, and become light and variable tonight. Yet another
potential for some overnight valley fog tonight in river valley
terminals. Fog breaks up by morning time, and winds from the S
tomorrow at 5-10kts.

KBGR/KBHB: VFR conditions today. Skies partially
clear, with some cumulus clouds. S winds today 5-10kts, and
become light and variable tonight. Potential for low stratus
and or fog to develop at southern terminals, which could cause
visibility reductions. Fog/low ceilings break up by morning
time, and winds from the S tomorrow at 5-10kts.

SHORT TERM: Friday...VFR/MVFR. Occasional IFR/LIFR early especially at
southern terminals where patchy fog is possible. Increasing
shower chances with the greatest likelihood of precipitation at
northern terminals. South/southeast winds 10 to 15 knots with
gusts up to around 20 knots.

Friday night...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR. Showers likely at
northern terminals. South/southwest winds 15 to 20 knots.

Saturday...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR especially for southern
terminals. Rain with isolated thunderstorms possilbe in the afternoon at
HUL/BGR/BHB. South/southwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up
to 25 knots.

Saturday night...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR especially for
southern terminals. Rain. Variable winds around 5 kts.

Sunday...VFR/MVFR. A slight chance/chance of showers. West
winds 5 to 10 knots.

Sunday night and Monday...VFR. West winds around 5 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas below Small Craft criteria tonight
into tomorrow. Seas generally 3 ft or below over all waters.
Winds from the S tonight around around 5-10 kts, and become
S/SE tomorrow. Potential for fog over the waters tonight and
tomorrow night.


SHORT TERM: Winds may approach small craft levels on Friday
through Saturday ahead of the main front. Saturday night, winds
will decrease below 25 kts behind the front, but seas will
remain close to 5 ft through Saturday night.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Brennan
Short Term...LF
Long Term...LF
Aviation...Brennan/LF
Marine...Brennan/LF