999
FXUS61 KCAR 010949
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
549 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
- 550 AM Update to aviation section below. Fog across the Bangor
  and Downeast areas will linger through the early morning hours
  before gradually dissipating through mid morning

- Increased confidence in start time of precip in the CWA early
  Friday morning. Potential for heavier rain in spots Friday
  evening, but uncertainty in front progression remains

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) The next round of rain showers is expected Friday, though
drought relief is unlikely.

2) Another round of rain is possible Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...The next round of rain showers is expected
Friday, though drought relief is unlikely.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
High pressure over the mid-Atlantic region results in dry
conditions today. Low pressure to the northwest in Canada
tracks eastward, bringing a cold front over the state Friday
into Saturday. Pressure gradient between the high pressure and
the approaching low could help produce some breezy southwest
winds this afternoon.

Based on global models, PWATs are roughly 1.25-1.75 inches,
with higher values concentrated around the central and Downeast
regions. Models continue to hint at precipitation generally
moving in early Friday from the northwest, and moving to the
southeast by Friday night. There is still some model
discrepancies in the end timing, however. Global ensembles
generally keep precipitation totals between half an inch to an
inch. Some members, though, do show a narrow band of enhanced
precipitation, upwards of an inch, somewhere located around
Central Highlands and Downeast region. The area of enhanced
precipitation is most likely to occur should the front slow in
progress, arriving to the Bangor and Downeast regions during
peak heating and allowing diurnal heating to support vertical
development and more efficient rain mechanisms. Additionally,
the NAMNEST does hint at the potential for a coastal low to
begin to develop, further enhancing rainfall in the Bangor and
Downeast regions into Friday evening. However, this is an
outlier solution, and should be considered as the extreme upper
end for precip totals. Other CAMs guidance, such as the HRRR,
suggest that rain could become more showery as the front
approaches the coast, with less moisture support as the boundary
begins to weaken.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Another round of rain is possible Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
High pressure builds in over the area this weekend. A low
pressure system from southern Canada moves eastward at the same
time as a low pressure exits off the Mid-Atlantic coast Monday.
The interaction between the high pressure and the two lows
provides significant uncertainty about rainfall. A few scenarios
are currently playing out in the models. 1. The high pressure
could dominate forcing the lows to stay to the north and south,
limiting precip. 2. The Canadian low could enhance the coastal
low as it rides the coast north, bringing more substantial
precip to coastal areas. 3. The Canadian low could dominate,
bringing enhanced precipitation along its cold front from the
moisture over the southeast low.

At this time, uncertainty from the models is high, so forecast
confidence is low, with a wide range of precipitation values.
The interaction of the pressure systems could also produce some
gusty winds. Continue to monitor the forecast for updates, as
models begin to get a better handle on the atmospheric set up.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Early this morning...Mostly VFR, with IFR at BGR/BHB/coastal
terminals in FG, though northern terminals may have periods of
IFR in patchy FG as well. Winds light and variable.

Today...VFR across all terminals. Light winds shift SW and
increase to 5 to 10 kts with gusts to 20 kts by the afternoon.

Tonight-Friday...MVFR/IFR in rain showers. SW winds 5 to 10 kts,
shifting NW on Friday. SW LLWS possible, particularly across
coastal terminals.

Friday night...MVFR or lower possible along/south a KHUL-KGNR
line, VFR elsewhere. Light and variable winds.

Saturday-Sunday...VFR. NW winds G15KT possible Saturday. S winds
G15KT possible Sunday.

Sunday night-Monday...MVFR or lower possible in rain.

&&

.MARINE...
SW winds remaining under 20 kt through Friday, and seas
generally under 5 ft within 25 nm through Friday.

Chance for rain Friday into Friday night, which could
limit visibility. Coastal-25nm, and 25nm-60nm zones could have
seas approach 5 ft late Friday night, with SW winds.

From Saturday into Sunday, N/NW winds over the waters out to
60nm should be 20 kt or less and seas 4 ft or less. Sub-SCA
conditions expected on the coastal waters Monday, with gusts to
around 25 kt and seas around 5 ft possible on the waters from
25-60nm.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AES/JMM
AVIATION...AES/JMM