105
FXUS61 KCAR 010609
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
209 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains over the area tonight through Tuesday. An
upper level disturbance will cross the region Wednesday. High
pressure will cross the region Thursday. An occluded front will
begin to cross the region Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Quiet weather persists through Tuesday as high pressure remains
overhead. Expecting fog to dissipate this morning with sunrise,
leading to a mostly sunny day across the area. Tonight, clouds
will increase ahead of a front approaching mid-week. This may
limit the amount of fog forming overnight and into tomorrow
morning. A very slim chance of showers exists tomorrow afternoon
for the western border with the approach of an upper level
trough from the west. Overall, winds will remain light during
the period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Tuesday night: The mid level trof will track NE across the
Quebec. The shortwave energy from this system is expected to
produce cloudy skies in the north. This should keep temps in the
mid 50s across the region.

Wednesday: The mid level trof should move across the region
bringing showers across the north. The warmer airmass and S flow
should help increase instability in the afternoon. Some
isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible. Expect temps
in the upper 70s across the region.

Wednesday night: The trof should exit by the evening, with any
lingering showers ending before midnight. Very brief high
pressure is expected to move in and clear out clouds for the
night. Though the skies should be clear, the S flow and evening
clouds should keep temps in the low 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A large occlusion over the Great Lakes is expected to move to
the NE through the end of the week. This system is expected to
move a cold front through the region by Friday. The extend
models still have inconsistencies with the timing of the front.
The Canadian model starts rain Friday morning while the GFS and
Euro show rain starting in the evening. In addition, the GFS has
the rain ending by Saturday while the Canadian and Euro has
continuous rain throughout the weekend. Decided to stick with
the NBM and have rain end on Sunday. Expect warm temps on
Thursday, then cooling after the front passes.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Fog remains the main aviation challenge for the next
24 hours. Some patchy fog has formed around the region tonight,
and with T/Tds very close at PQI, CAR, and HUL, saw no reason
to remove it from the TAFs. FVE is a little drier and with
higher elevation, is likely to miss any valley fog forming.
Otherwise, VFR conditions for the next 24 hrs. With higher level
clouds moving in overnight, confidence in valley fog forming
tomorrow morning is lower. Winds will remain light for the next
24 hrs.


SHORT TERM:
Tue night...MVFR/IFR in patchy fog. Otherwise, VFR.
Slight chance of an afternoon shower northwest. Light and
variable winds.

Wed-Wed night...MVFR/IFR in afternoon rain showers, then VFR
Wed night. WSW winds around 5 kts.

Thursday...VFR. S winds 5-10 kts.

Thur night...VFR early. MVFR/IFR late in rain showers. S winds
5-10 kts.

Friday...MVFR/IFR in rain showers. S winds 10-15 kts with gusts
up to 25 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain below SCA conditions
through the near term. Seas generally 3 ft or below over all
waters. Light northerly winds this morning will shift clockwise
throughout the day on Monday becoming NE Monday afternoon.


SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels through
this period.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for MEZ029-030.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...LF
Short Term...LaFlash
Long Term...LaFlash
Aviation...LF/LaFlash
Marine...LF/LaFlash