944
FXUS61 KCAR 040940
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
540 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
- 540 AM Update to the aviation section with the 12z TAFS

- Issued SCA for coastal and intracoastals and Gale Watch on
  outer waters for Monday night into Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Strong westerly winds on Tuesday could lead to some isolated
power outages.

2) Another round of rain showers throughout the forecast area on
Monday, with light rainfall totals and little improvement to
ongoing drought conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Strong westerly winds on Tuesday could lead to
some isolated power outages.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Increasing confidence on Tuesday that, as the low pressure
system deepens in the Northern Maritimes, we can expect strong
surface high pressure to dive over the eastern Great Lakes. This
will lead to a strong pressure gradient between the low and
high, resulting in gusty west winds developing during the
afternoon and evening hours on Monday. Tuesday probabilities for
35+ mph wind gusts have stayed consistent to 70-90%, with 40+
mph probabilities still 40-70% for Millinocket and areas north.
For the Bangor region and interior Downeast, 35+ mph wind gusts
probabilities are 20-40%. 40+ mph probabilities have decreased
to less than 10%. There is ensemble guidance suggesting a
potential of wind advisory headlines (31-39 mph sustained or
gusts 45+ mph) for northern Aroostook. Uncertainty remains in
wind speeds due to uncertainty with cloud cover throughout the
day on Tuesday. However, it is likely that significant leaf loss
may be possible in areas of Northern Maine where peak foliage
has been reached. Additional leaf loss is possible in the
Central Highlands to Downeast Maine where the foliage is
moderate to high. Gusty winds could also lead to some isolated
power outages. Continue to monitor the forecast for updates, as
models get a better handle on the atmospheric set up.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Another round of rain showers throughout the
forecast area on Monday, with light rainfall totals and little
improvement to ongoing drought conditions.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
An occluding low pressure system will track across northern
Quebec Monday through Tuesday. At the same time, a coastal low
will track up the Atlantic coast before tracking up the eastern
coast of Nova Scotia. There is increasing confidence that the
timing between these two systems will align such that they
interact with each other over our forecast area on Monday. The
coastal low will be the system that provides the moisture for
rainfall, with PWATs 1.0-1.2 inches. Meanwhile, the northern low
will be comparatively dry with PWATs closer to 0.6-0.8 inches,
yet the northern low will provide the most dynamic support.
Overall, due to the lack of moisture support by the northern
system, total rainfall amounts will be relatively light, with
around a tenth to a quarter of an inch of total rainfall, and
having little benefit to the ongoing drought in the area.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Today...VFR across all terminals. SE winds 5 to 10 kts with a
few gusts to 15 kts.

Tonight...Cigs deteriorating towards IFR at all terminals as
rain moves into the area. Winds light and variable at KBGR and
Downeast terminals, SE 5 to 10 kts at northern terminals from
KGNR/KMLT/KHUL north. LLWS possible early at northern terminals.

Monday...MVFR/IFR early, improving to VFR behind a frontal
passage, though lingering MVFR possible for Aroostook terminals
through the afternoon. SW winds 5 to 10 kts shifting W during
the afternoon behind the frontal passage at 10 to 15 kts with
gusts 20 to 30 kts.

Monday night-Tuesday...VFR/MVFR north in any lingering low
clouds. VFR Downeast. Westerly winds 15 to 25 knots with gusts
up to around 30 knots Monday night. Tuesday, west winds 20 to 30
knots at northern terminals with gusts up to 35-40 knots. West
winds 15 to 20 knots at southern terminals with gusts 20-30
knots.

Tuesday night-Wednesday...VFR conditions. W/NW winds 10-15
knots, gusting to 20-25 knots at all terminals. Winds relax to
5-10 knots out of the south area wide for Wednesday and gusts at
15-20 knots.

Wednesday night-Thursday...VFR conditions. S winds 5-10 knots,
gusting 15-20 knots at all terminals. Thursday winds WSW at 10-15
knots with gusts 20-25 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds light and variable and seas 2 to 3 ft today. Seas
increasing to 3 to 5 ft overnight tonight into Monday on the
coastal and outer waters with a SE swell.

Wind gusts increase above 25kts over the outer waters Monday
afternoon and reach gale force in the evening remaining around
these levels through Tuesday, with a Gale Watch in effect Monday
night into Tuesday afternoon. Waves build to 5-8ft Monday
evening on outer waters. Waves 3 to 6 feet over remaining waters
through Tuesday with W winds 15-25 knots for coastal and
intracoastal waters with gusts 25-30 knots. A Small Craft
Advisory is in effect for coastal and intracoastal waters Monday
afternoon through Tuesday afternoon.

Wednesday W-SW winds 5-15 knots, gusts 15-20 knots on coastal
waters, outer waters winds at 10-15 knots, gusts 20-25 knots.
Wave heights Wednesday 2-4 coastal, outer-waters 3-5 ft then
going to 1-3 ft during the evening both waters.

Winds and waves remain below SCA criteria through the rest of
the week.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for MEZ016-017-030.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Monday to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for
     ANZ050>052.
     Gale Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon for
     ANZ080-081.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AES/JMM
AVIATION...AES/JMM