Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
567 FXUS61 KCAR 131854 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 254 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... - No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers tonight into Monday morning. 2) Patchy/areas of frost possible across northern areas Monday night. 3) Chance for rain showers by late next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers tonight into Monday morning. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Low pressure will exit across the Maritimes tonight, while a cold front crosses the region and an upper trof approaches from the west. The heavier rains with the surface low will remain offshore across the Gulf of Maine. However, the northern edge of the precipitation shield will bring rain to Downeast areas early tonight. An isolated thunderstorm is also possible along the Downeast coast early tonight. Precipitation then tapers to showers Downeast overnight. Across northern portions of the forecast area, showers will accompany the cold front. An isolated thunderstorm is also possible early tonight. Shower chances will then diminish in the wake of the cold front. The upper trof will cross the region early Monday with isolated/scattered morning showers. Rainfall with this system will have minimal impact on the drought. KEY MESSAGE 2...Patchy/areas of frost possible across northern areas Monday night. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... High pressure will build across the region Monday night, bringing clear skies and light winds. This will result in favorable conditions for radiational cooling. Low temperatures will generally range from the mid to upper 30s across much of northern Maine. However, temperatures could locally drop to around freezing across northwest areas. Patchy/areas of frost are possible Monday night across northern areas, particularly in the normally colder low lying locations. Patchy river valley fog is also possible later Monday night. KEY MESSAGE 3...Chance for rain showers by late next week. KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... Low pressure system to the far north moves eastward, pushing a front through New England late next week. Models disagree on the timing of the pressure system, with some models suggesting the system will move through by the end of the week while others delay into the weekend. Not anticipating enough rainfall to provide drought improvement at this time. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Rest of this afternoon...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR. Scattered/numerous showers, with isolated thunderstorms also possible, north. Rain Downeast. An isolated thunderstorm also possible along the Downeast coast. South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots. Tonight...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR, early. VFR/MVFR, occasional IFR, late. Numerous/scattered showers north. Rain tapering to showers Downeast. An isolated evening thunderstorm also possible both north and along the Downeast coast. South winds around 10 knots, becoming southwest/west. Monday...Occasional MVFR possible early with isolated/scattered showers. Otherwise, VFR. Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 to 25 knots. Monday night...Variable conditions with any patchy fog late. Otherwise, VFR. Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming light and variable. Tuesday to Wednesday Night..VFR. Light S Winds Tuesday shifting W/SW by late Wednesday Night. Winds 5-10kts on Wednesday. Thursday to Thursday Night...Mainly VFR. Chance for MVFR in rain showers. Light and variable winds. Friday...VFR. Light and variable winds early, then SW winds 5 to 10kts, gusting to 15kts. && .MARINE... Winds below small craft advisory levels tonight and again Monday night. Wind gusts could approach small craft advisory levels Monday. Seas below small craft advisory levels tonight through Monday night. Rain early tonight, then tapering to showers. An isolated thunderstorm also possible early. Patchy fog tonight into Monday morning. All waters should experience sustained winds less than 15 kt, gusts less than 20 kt and seas 4 ft or less through Friday. N winds Monday night, becoming S/SW Tuesday evening into Thursday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...SM/CN/MB AVIATION...SM/CN/MB