Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
419 FXUS61 KCAR 021800 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 200 PM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to the forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Widespread frost is expected for northern areas on Saturday night, with patchy frost elsewhere in interior Downeast. 2) Another round of rain is possible Monday followed by gusty westerly winds on Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Widespread frost is expected for northern areas on Saturday night, with patchy frost elsewhere in interior Downeast. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... 1030mb sfc high builds in across the north on Saturday. Clear skies and light winds will result in excellent radn/l cooling conds. Temps drop to around 30 in the north, with deeper valleys dipping into the low-mid 20s by dawn. Widespread frost is expected to the north of Bangor. Patchy to areas of frost may occur in the Bangor Region late Saturday night. Cannot rule out frost for interior Downeast and along the coast, especially if the high can build in faster than currently advertised. People should be prepared to protect any vulnerable vegetation across the area, especially if they are in lower lying areas that typically gets colder. The frost/freeze program has ended for all counties except Hancock and Washington counties, so frost headlines would not be issued for Penobscot, Piscataquis, northern Somerset, or Aroostook counties. Coastal Downeast should stay warm enough to limit any frost, though check the forecast for updates. KEY MESSAGE 2...Another round of rain is possible Monday followed by gusty westerly winds on Tuesday. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Sunday night, a cold surface high pressure that will have brought widespread frost Sunday AM shifts to the east over the Maritimes. A potent vertically stacked low pressure system tracks into north-central Quebec with a trailing potent cold front. That front will swing across the CWA on Monday at the same time as a low pressure exits off the Mid-Atlantic coast. The interaction between the high pressure and the two lows provides significant uncertainty about rainfall. There a few different scenarios still with the models. 1. The high pressure could dominate, forcing the lows to stay to the north and south, limiting precip. 2. The Canadian low could enhance the coastal low as it rides the coast north, bringing more substantial precip to coastal areas. 3. The Canadian low could dominate, bringing enhanced precipitation along its cold front from the moisture over the southeast low. At this time, uncertainty from the models is high, so forecast confidence is low, with a wide range of precipitation values. Increasing confidence on Tuesday, as the low pressure system deepens in the Northern Maritimes, we can expect strong surface high pressure to dive over the eastern Great Lakes. This will lead to a strong pressure gradient between the low and high resulting in gusty west winds developing during the afternoon and evening hours on Monday. Tuesday probabilities for 35+ mph wind gusts have increased to 70-90% with 40+ mph probabilities now 50-70%, mainly for Millinocket and areas north. There is ensemble guidance suggesting a potential of wind headlines but still uncertainty exists on exact expected wind speeds/gusts. However, it is likely that significant leaf loss may be possible in areas of Northern Maine where peak foliage has been reached. Additional leaf loss possible in the Central Highlands to Downeast Maine where the foliage is moderate to high. Continue to monitor the forecast for updates, as models begin to get a better handle on the atmospheric set up. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 00z tonight...Mainly VFR, though cannot rule out a brief MVFR cig at BHB, BGR or HUL this afternoon. Light rain should end by 21z for southern terminals. NW winds 5-10kts with ocnl gusts 15- 20kts with fropa. Tonight...VFR. A layer of BKN VFR cigs moves through Aroostook terminals between 05-11z. Light NNW flow. Saturday-Saturday night...VFR. NW 5-15kts becoming light and variable winds Saturday evening. Sunday...VFR. S winds, gusting to 15 knots, possible Sunday. Sunday night-Monday...VFR Sunday night changing over to MVFR or lower possible, due to rain on Monday. Chance for overnight fog at KBHB, that would lift during the morning. S winds Sunday night shift to W Monday with gusts to 25 knots. Monday night-Tuesday...VFR/MVFR north. VFR Downeast. Westerly winds 15 to 25 knots with gusts up to around 30 knots Monday night. West winds 20 to 30 knots with gusts up to 35 to 45 knots Tuesday. Tuesday night-Wednesday...VFR conditions. W/NW winds. 10-15 knots, gusting to 25-30 knots at northern terminals and 5-10 knots with 20-25 knot gusts at the downeast terminals. Winds relax 5-10 knots area wide for Wednesday and gusts at 15-20 knots. && .MARINE... Winds and seas remain below SCA levels through Saturday night. Rain will subside this evening with fropa, which may limit visibilities. Winds shift to the northwest late tonight, gusting to near 20kts. Sunday morning winds will change from N to SE, with winds staying under 20 kts, and wave heights between 2-4 ft through Monday evening. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ASB/21/CM AVIATION...21