136
FXUS61 KCAR 312334
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
734 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
- Updated aviation discussion for next 24 hours.
- Increased rain chances next three hours in the north, as a few
  showers persist.
- Increased uncertainty in timing of system Sunday into Monday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers, and potentially a few thunderstorms,
likely late this weekend into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers, and potentially a few thunderstorms,
likely late this weekend into early next week.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A cold front approaches our area Saturday night with an area of
low pressure developing along it Sunday. The low should pass
north of our area Sunday night into Monday. There is
considerable uncertainty with the timing and strength of this
approaching system. Guidance from the Euro has a stronger system
approaching later Monday, while the GFS and Canadian have a
weaker system earlier Monday. Showers and an isolated
thunderstorm possible, mainly over northern and western Maine,
Sunday afternoon as the cold front approaches. The majority of
the rain is expected Monday as the low passes to our north with
the highest totals in north and west areas, with about a 50-60%
chance of greater than 0.5 inches. Other areas could see up to
0.25 inches. Uncertainty remains in the timing of the system so
rain totals could shift or be higher in some heavier bands. Rain
tapers off over night Monday into Tuesday. The greatest chance
for thunderstorms is also Monday but it is unclear how
widespread they will be and how far south they will extend which
is also complicated by the timing of the system. Models are
currently showing limited instability and more southerly flow
along the coast could bring a marine layer inland which would
generally stunt convection. Fog likely each night through Sunday
night and may persist into the morning.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Tonight...Mainly VFR early, with localized MVFR. Later tonight,
patchy fog and lower ceilings are possible, but confidence is
lower than usual. Played it safe in TAFs, going with generally
MVFR, but there is about a 15-30 percent chance of IFR at any
site. Light and variable winds.

Saturday...VFR once any fog burns off. Light and variable
winds, except S 10 kts after 18-20z at BHB/BGR due to a sea
breeze.

Saturday night...VFR early, then returning marine layer will
drop terminals to IFR/LIFR later in the night. Light S winds.

Sunday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers, and slight chance of
thunderstorms, especially at northern terminals. Patchy fog
possible early at southern terminals. S winds 10 to 15 knots
with gusts up to around 20 knots.

Sunday night - Monday...MVFR, possibly IFR, with rain showers
and isolated afternoon thunderstorms. Patchy fog Sunday night
which may persist into Monday morning. S winds 5 to 10 kts with
gusts up to 20 kts.

Monday night - Tuesday...Becoming VFR Monday night. W winds
5-10 kts, increasing to 10 to 15 kts during the day with gusts
to 20 kts.

Tuesday night - Wednesday...VFR, with some isolated showers
possible. W winds 5-10 kts, shifting to S winds 5-10 kts
Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas will remain below SCA conditions tonight,
Saturday, and Saturday night. In general, light and variable
winds tonight and Saturday becoming S Saturday night. Seas 3-4
ft through Tuesday, increasing to 5 ft on
the outer waters Monday night. Winds become southerly by
Saturday afternoon, then southwesterly Monday night. Rain
possible late Sunday into Monday night. Fog likely tonight,
Saturday night, and Sunday night.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ029-
     030.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TF/ARL/JMM
AVIATION...TF/ARL/JMM