651
FXUS61 KCAR 290620
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
220 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level low pressure will drop south from Quebec today then
slowly cross the region this weekend. High pressure will return
Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Upper level low pressure will drop south from Western Quebec toward
Western New England today. A band of showers supported by upper
level divergence east of this low and surface convergence in an
occlusion will spread into western parts of our area during the
midday today then push toward the east later this afternoon into
this evening. Cooler air pooled aloft combined with the days heating
will produce some cape up to around 200 J/KG over west central
areas. This will work with the dynamics to support some embedded
thunderstorms, mainly over central and western areas during the
midday and early afternoon.

Showers will initially weaken as they move east later today into
early tonight resulting in lighter rain over eastern areas through
this evening. Later tonight, a shortwave rounding the bottom of the
upper low will redevelop a small area of surface low pressure near
our coast. This will lift north re-enhancing the showers over
eastern areas late tonight into Saturday morning. Dynamics and cool
air aloft may result in some isolated embedded thunderstorms over
the north and east on Saturday. In all, precipitation amounts
of around 3/4 of an inch to 1 inch are likely across much of the
central and northern part of our area with closer to a third of
an inch near the coast through Saturday. Localized bands of
over 1" are possible across central and north central areas
through Saturday. Showers will taper off and lift northeast into
the Maritimes later Saturday. Partial clearing is possible over
southern areas Saturday afternoon while the north remains
mostly cloudy.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The upper level low will remain overhead Saturday night and
Sunday, with a weak cold pool aloft that could continue to
initiate showers. Any showers that form will be neither heavy
nor widespread. By Sunday night, the upper level low will move
eastward and ridging will begin to build in, ushering in calm
weather. Temperatures during this period will be slightly cooler
than normal, but only a couple degrees, so frost should not be a
concern.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The weather Monday through Thursday really has nothing notable
for Northern Maine. A somewhat weak ridge will move in, and
weather will remain dry through Wednesday, warming to slightly
above average during this period. On Tuesday, the pattern aloft
will switch from ridging to an upper level trough, with minimal
effect at the surface. Isolated showers are possible Tuesday
afternoon, but these would be very weak. By Wednesday afternoon,
the pattern aloft returns to ridging ahead of a more significant
low in the midwest. This will bring southwest flow and warm air
in the mid levels will stabilize the atmosphere. Not expecting a
big trend in temps for late in the week, still remaining
slightly above normal. This pattern continues through Thursday,
with the first chance for a cold front and significant precip
not returning until Friday, after the current forecast period
ends.&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
MVFR to IFR conditions possible over some southern areas early
today. Otherwise, VFR through midday, then becoming MVFR later today
into tonight in lower clouds. Conditions may lower to IFR across the
south again late tonight. Conditions will improve to VFR south on
Saturday and remain MVFR over the north, possibly improving to VFR
late Saturday. Winds light SE today, light and variable tonight then
becoming light SW on Saturday.


SHORT TERM:

Saturday Night: Patchy fog Saturday night could lead to local
IFR.  Light winds.

Sunday: VFR Downeast, with a period of MVFR north becoming VFR. VCSH
at northern terminals. NW winds 5-10kts.

Sunday Night to Tuesday: VFR with light winds.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:
Winds will remain below SCA today, tonight and Saturday with
seas around 2 to 3 ft.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will remain nearly calm through the
forecast period.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Bloomer
Short Term...LF
Long Term...LF
Aviation...Bloomer/LF
Marine...Bloomer/LF