534
FXUS61 KCAR 160008
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
808 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
- Updated aviation discussion.
&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Chance for rain showers by later this week, though little to
no drought improvement anticipated.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Chance for rain showers by later this week,
though little to no drought improvement anticipated.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A low pressure system centered over Hudson Bay will move
eastward across Quebec on Thursday, dragging a cold front
through New England into the evening and overnight hours. Some
deterministic models indicate a weak low pressure develops along
this front in coastal Maine, though models diverge on the exact
speed and strength of this feature. Highest chance of
precipitation will be along the coast Thursday evening and night
where most moisture will be located, up to 45-75% chance, while
dry air and lack of strong forcing should win out in northern
Maine with only 5-30% chance. Any showers will be light, with
only a trace to 0.15 inches anticipated, though drizzle and mist
are also possible as a marine layer sets up along the coast. The
area remains under D0-D2 (abnormally dry to severe drought)
conditions, and the light rain showers or drizzle later this
week are not expected to improve this. However, the cold front
should result in cold air advection on Friday to usher in a
period of cooler temperatures into the weekend as the low
pressure heads into the Canadian maritimes. Friday could also be
breezy across the forecast area with gusts 25-35 mph possible,
and a few light showers are possible (10-35% chance) on Friday
morning across northern Maine as a trough moves through.
&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Overnight...Variable conditions in any patchy fog late.
Isolated showers, mostly north. Otherwise, VFR. Light and
variable winds.

Wednesday...VFR. Isolated afternoon showers possible, mostly
north. South/southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to
15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots.

Wed night...Mainly VFR, then lowering to MVFR/IFR in patchy fog
late. Light and variable winds.

Thursday-Thu night...MVFR/IFR in rain showers, especially for
southern terminals. Light and variable winds.

Friday-Saturday...VFR. NW winds 10-15 kts with gusts up to 25
kts. Decreasing Fri night to 5-10 kts through Saturday.

Sunday...Uncertainty in the track and timing of possible rain
event (20% confidence).
&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels through Sunday,
though winds are expected to be breezy Friday night with gusts
up to 20 kts. Seas 1-2 ft for intercoastal and coastal waters,
3-4 ft for outer waters.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ARL/JS
AVIATION...ARL/JS/CN