159
FXUS61 KCAR 171049
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
649 AM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach from the west today and cross the
area Friday. High pressure returns on Saturday. Another front
approaches from the north while low pressure tracks south of the
area on Sunday. High pressure builds in from the northwest on
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through the early morning hours, fog continues to creep in from
the coast, with a Dense Fog Advisory in place across the coast
and into Bangor and the Interior Downeast region. Beyond
sunrise, fog will begin to dissipate, eroding under the increase
in solar angle. The immediate coast may be last to clear, with
some fog clinging to the coast through mid morning.

For the day today, a cold front will be approaching from the
west, leaving the forecast area in the warm sector of the
approaching open wave low. Very warm temperatures continue, with
highs lifting into the low to mid 80s throughout the forecast
area. Additionally, moisture levels remain quite high, with
dewpoints lifting into the 70s this afternoon. Given all of
these factors, and the approaching synoptic source of lift,
shower and thunderstorm development will become increasingly
more likely. As PWATs surge towards near 2 inches, any stronger
showers or thunderstorms could produce heavy downpours, and
localized flooding is possible.

For thunderstorm chances, 1000 to 1500 J/kg MUCAPE could span
across the western and northern portions of the CWA into this
afternoon as seen from the HREF mean, providing plenty of
instability to any convective initiation. That said, the 00z run
of the NAM suggests that low level lapse rates are not so
aggressive, with favorable lapse rates above 7 C/km clinging to
the Quebec border. Around 30 kts of shear could aid in storm
organization, however, so the threat for some thunderstorms
becoming strong to severe remains. With a strengthening LLJ
aloft, the greatest threat from stronger thunderstorms will be
that of gusty winds, in addition to the heavy rainfall mentioned
above. Thunderstorms could linger into the overnight hours as
the front begins to enter the area.

The cold front will finally begin to sweep through the forecast
area late Thursday night into Friday morning, quickly clearing
out any remaining showers and storms and ushering in a drier air
mass into the forecast area. Dewpoints will quickly drop,
bringing relief for the end of the week. This front will also
aid in dispersing any reduction in visibility due to fog. With a
tightened pressure gradient aloft, windy conditions will persist
through much of the day on Friday, with gusts 25 to 30 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Friday night a 1020mb surface high will slide SE over Southern
New England and then south of Cape Cod by Saturday morning.
Temperatures under clear skies and calm winds will drop back
into the low 50s north with mid 50s for the Central Highlands to
Downeast coast. A few clouds are possible after midnight
through daybreak Saturday as weak disturbance at 500mb zips
through the flow.

Saturday expecting a mainly dry day with the surface high
drifting SE of Cape Cod. There remains some weak energy at 500mb
moving through the flow. Cannot rule out a isolated shower or
thunderstorm mainly confined to the St. John Valley westward to
the Quebec border. Otherwise, partly to mostly sunny skies with
highs in the upper 70s north with around 80F for the Central
Highlands to Downeast Coast. W-SW winds 5-15mph so upper 60s to
low 70s right along the coast thanks to the seabreeze.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Saturday night into Sunday features diverging model solutions
as a low pressure tracks into New England with a warm front
lifting north. Operationally the GFS and Canadian take this low
south of the area with shortwave energy at 500mb pivoting
through Maine keeping us out of the warm and humid airmass south
of the warm front. The ECMWF last several runs have suggested a
solid low pressure system with steady stratiform rainfall. The
ECMWF AIFS has kept things generally weak and more of the
shortwave being the weather maker. ECMWF ensembles suggest the
operational isn`t an outlier per se but about 5-10 members show
a defined low pressure tracking near the coast of Maine or over
the Gulf of Maine. The GFS ensembles only show 1-2 members with
similar setup and perhaps 1 Canadian member. The NBM seems to be
a blend and keeping things mainly looking more 500mb driven and
given that there is a ton of uncertainty on how much
instability can develop. The NBM probability of thunder seems
too high at this point so will cut things back to chance of
showers and isolated thunderstorms, will need to monitor trends.
Highs top out in the low 70s north and mid to upper 70s from
the Highlands to the coast with a lot of cloud cover.

Monday decent agreement behind this departing system a strong
1020-1025mb Canadian High Pressure drifts southeast into the
Eastern Great Lakes with NW cold air advection and very dry air.
Dew points will fall back into the 40s to near 50F by Monday AM
and this will result in a nice refreshing cool morning for most
locations. Lows in the mid to upper 40s across the North, low
to mid 50s from the Central Highlands to Downeast coast. Breezy
NW winds 10-20mph on Monday with plenty of fair weather cu
developing. Highs topping out in the upper 60s to low 70s across
the north with mid 70s from S. Aroostook County to the Downeast
and the Bangor region.

Tuesday high pressure shifts over Southern New England keeping
us mainly dry with winds shifting westerly as Maine is position
north of the high. Cannot rule out an isolated afternoon shower
as weak energy at 500mb dives SE over a developing ridge to our
west. Highs in the upper 70s to near 80F across the entire CWA.

Beyond expecting a return to more humid weather as the high
drifts to our S and return flow sets up across the area.
Temperatures a few degrees either side of 80F with dew points
returning into the 60s. Showers and thunderstorm chances will go
back up again but still too far out at this time to pinpoint
specifics.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
12z Update: Though the threat for thunderstorms will be wildly
scattered, the threat for thunderstorms will be a long duration
threat, stemming from around 20z this afternoon through about
02z to 04z overnight. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains
on track.

Northern terminals: Generally VFR through this
morning, with a decreasing trend towards MVFR as showers and
storms move in from the west. Storms will be more scattered this
afternoon and evening, with steadier rain into the overnight
hours when cigs continue to fall towards MVFR/IFR overnight. VFR
conditions return for the day on Friday. S winds 5 to 15 kts
gusting to 20 kts Friday morning and increasing 10 to 15 kts
with gusts 20 to 30 kts.

Downeast terminals: IFR/LIFR early this morning in areas of fog
prior to fog gradually lifting out through mid morning, when VFR
conditions return for all except potentially the immediate
coast. Showers will approach from the west this afternoon into
overnight tonight, and conditions will once more drop to
MVFR/IFR as rain moves through, along with the potential for a
return of fog. Rain and fog will quickly clear early Friday
morning, with rapid improvement back to VFR through the day on
Friday. LLWS likely Thursday night. S winds 5 to 15 kts shifting
NW early Friday morning and increasing 10 to 15 kts with gusts
20 to 30 kts.

SHORT TERM: Sat...VFR. W-SW winds 5-15kt.

Sun...VFR. Brief MVFR/IFR vsby with -SHRA and possible TS in the
afternoon. W-SW winds 5-10kt shifting NW in the afternoon with
FROPA.

Mon...VFR. NW winds 10-20kt.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain below small craft advisory
criteria though Friday. Fog today into early tonight may reduce
visibility over all waters. Showers possible this evening.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will remain below small craft advisory
criteria though midweek. Winds generally less than 15kt and seas
1-3ft. Sea surface water temperatures are generally in the
50-55F range from the Downeast Coast out 25nm and East to the
Hague Line including Passamaquoddy and Penobscot Bays.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for MEZ015>017-
     029-030.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...AStrauser
Short Term...Sinko
Long Term...Sinko
Aviation...AStrauser/Sinko
Marine...AStrauser/Sinko