846
FXUS61 KCAR 171907
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
207 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will remain over Labrador through Wednesday as high
pressure builds in from the west. High pressure will be over the
area Thursday. An occluded front will approach on Friday and
continue to our east Friday night. High pressure will build to our
southwest on Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
We will continue to be in the circulation of low pressure tracking
from the Gulf of St. Lawrence north into Labrador tonight. A tight
gradient south of this low will result in continued gusty westerly
winds overnight. Some snow showers will be possible over the far
north and west tonight. Otherwise, tonight will be mostly
cloudy north to mostly clear Downeast.

Strong low pressure will remain stalled over Labrador on Tuesday as
we remain in a tight gradient across our region. Moisture continuing
to circulate over the area will bring a mostly cloudy sky north and
a mostly sunny sky south. A few snow showers will still be possible
over the far north early. The afternoon should be dry.

Low pressure will weaken well to our north Tuesday night allowing
winds to gradually diminish. The north will remain partly to mostly
cloudy in some lingering moisture while Downeast is mostly
clear.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Messages:
*High pressure Wednesday Night into Thursday
*Below normal temperatures expected

Upper trof will pass thru the area on Wednesday bringing mocldy
skies to the north. Cannot rule out an isolated snow shower over the
area but dry airmass likely to preclude much in the way of precip.
West winds may be gusty along the higher terrain.

Sfc high will begin to build in Wednesday night with mostly clear to
partly cloudy skies. With light winds and clearing skies temps
should be able to drop into the upr teens over the north and into
the lwr 20s Downeast.

High pressure builds offshore Thursday morning with return flow
kicking in during the afternoon. Shortwave digging thru the mid-
Atlantic will eject off of the Delmarva and move south of our waters
Wednesday night.

High temps on Thursday will continue below normal with mid 30s acrs
the north and around 40 south. Upper level trof will approach from
the west and bring an increase in clouds in the afternoon but little
in the way of precip.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Messages...
*Weakening system brings rain/snow mix north Friday/Friday night
*Gusty winds possible Saturday

H5 system will be moving thru nrn Ontario into nrn Quebec Friday
into Friday night. Upr ridging will build briefly over the area
Thursday night into Friday morning before flow begins to flatten.
Precipitation will move in ahead of occluding system by afternoon.

Precipitation should be all rain for southern areas with snow and/or
mix of rain and snow over the north Friday afternoon and Friday
evening. System will be a fast-mover with precip exiting into NB
Saturday morning.

Sfc high looks to be building in from the Great Lakes as ow is still
deepening over the Canadian Maritimes, leading to gusty winds once
again on Saturday afternoon.

Temperatures will moderate to near normal at the start of the period
before dropping into the weekend in wake of departing low.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
MVFR conditions are expected across the north tonight, gradually
improving to VFR but likely remaining MVFR over the far north. VFR
conditions are expected over the south. Some westerly wind shear
late tonight. W wind 10 to 15 kt gusting to 25 kt.

VFR conditions are expected Tuesday, possibly briefly lowering to
MVFR at times over the far north. W wind 10 to 15 gusting to 25.

VFR conditions Tuesday night. Winds 5 to 10 gusting to 15,
diminishing overnight.

SHORT TERM:
Wednesday through Thursday night...VFR. W 5-10kts becoming S 5ks
Thursday morning.

Friday through Friday night...VFR early, dropping to MVFR/IFR and
occasional LIFR Friday. Rain/snow mix over Aroostook terminals with
rain Downeast terminals. S 5-10kts, becoming W late.

Saturday...MVFR/IFR early, improving throughout the day. W 5-15kts
with gusts 20-25kts in the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:
A gale warning for the offshore waters and SCA for the
intracoastal waters will continue into Tuesday morning. Seas
will average 6 to 8 ft overnight. Winds will diminish to SCA on
Tuesday and drop below SCA Tuesday night. Seas subsiding to 4 to
6 ft late Tuesday then 3 to 4 ft Tuesday night.

SHORT TERM: Seas and winds will remain below small craft levels
through Friday. Conditions increase aoa SCA Friday night, before
diminishing very late on Saturday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 1 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ050-051.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ052.

&&

$$


Near Term...MB
Short Term...21
Long Term...21
Aviation...MB/21
Marine...MB/21