473
FXUS61 KCAR 140541
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
141 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak frontal boundary will cross the area today and continue to
the east tonight. High pressure will build across the region Tuesday
into Wednesday. A cold front will approach on Thursday and cross the
area late Thursday night into Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A large area of low pressure near Hudson Bay will pull a weak
frontal occlusion across the area today. Spotty showers and isolated
thunderstorms associated with this front will continue to move
across the northwest early this morning. Meanwhile, low stratus
clouds and fog drifting north from the coast will cover much of the
area, especially from central parts of the region south, early this
morning. A few of the stray showers will push into the east,
southeast around mid morning but then dissipate before reaching
Downeast. Spotty convection associated with the frontal boundary
will likely redevelop around midday, again over mainly northwestern
areas, and then progress east from there. However, the low level
marine inversion near the surface will act to suppress surface base
CAPE to the east, especially southeast over the Downeast region. Any
convection that makes it to the east will be primarily elevated, or
will rely on heating to overcome the shallow layer of cooler marine
air near the surface.

Some stray showers may linger over eastern and southeastern areas
early tonight. Otherwise, a corridor of dry air following the
frontal boundary will bring clearing across western and northern
areas tonight while Downeast remains partly to mostly cloudy.

Weak high pressure will build over the region on Tuesday bringing a
partly to mostly sunny and warm day with inland highs in the mid to
upper 80s and very light wind.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will remain in control of the weather over
Northern and Eastern Maine for Tuesday night into Wednesday.
With clear skies and light southwest winds, lows will range from
the upper 50s to lower 60s Tuesday night. Patchy fog will be
possible Tuesday night, mainly south of Katahdin.

A very warm day is on tap for Wednesday, with 850mb
temperatures around 18C. This will allow high temperatures to
reach the upper 80s to lower 90s inland, with the warmest
readings from Millinocket southward. Dew points in the Penobscot
and Piscataquis Valleys are forecast to approach 70 degrees
Wednesday. This could lead to these locations reaching Heat
Advisory criteria Wednesday afternoon. Elsewhere, heat index
temperatures will likely fall short of criteria. Cooler
temperatures will be found in Coastal Downeast due to southwest
to south winds. Immediate coastal areas and outer islands are
expected to see highs remain in the 70s. Still expecting lower
to mid 80s closer to Route 1, however.

A cold front will begin to slowly approach from the northwest
late Wednesday into Wednesday night. This will bring the threat
of scattered showers to the Crown of Maine. Soundings show
enough instability for isolated thunderstorms before sunset
Wednesday. That said, warm temperatures aloft will keep the
threat limited. Expect a mild night Wednesday night, with lows
well into the 60s for most areas. Closer to 60 degrees in the
North Woods and at the Downeast coast for lows. Patchy fog will
be possible once again with increasing southerly flow.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The aforementioned front will move closer Thursday, before
crossing the area Thursday night into Friday. This will increase
the threat of showers and thunderstorms for more of the area.
The main threat area Thursday afternoon looks to be northern
areas due to location of the front and onshore flow ahead of it.
The thunderstorm threat is forecast to extend towards the Bangor
region and Downeast by Friday afternoon with the front moving
further southeast. Deterministic and ensemble guidance continues
to have differences regarding frontal placement, as well as with
waves tracking along the front. This will determine which areas
see more thunderstorms versus stratiform rain. Thus, leaned
on NBM guidance for this timeframe. Regardless, cooler
temperatures and lower dew points are forecast for this
weekend. Cannot rule out a few showers or thunderstorms Sunday
afternoon with a secondary front approaching from the north.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
South: IFR to LIFR conditions in low marine stratus will improve to
MVFR around midday. MVFR conditions may drop back to IFR tonight in
lower clouds. Light S winds today. Light and variable wind tonight.

North: IFR conditions this morning will improve to MVFR around
midday then VFR late this afternoon. VFR conditons are expected
tonight. Light S winds today and tonight.

SHORT TERM:
Tuesday night...Mainly VFR. IFR or lower possible late, mainly
south of GNR-MLT, in BCFG. Light SW winds.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR. Brief MVFR or lower possible late PM
north with VCSH and isolated TSRA. SW-S winds 5-10 kts.

Wednesday Night...Mainly MVFR/IFR north with VCSH. VFR trending
to IFR or lower BGR & Downeast with BCFG late. Light S winds.

Thursday...IFR/LIFR early BGR and Downeast with BCFG. Then
VFR/MVFR with VCSH and isolated TS late. Mainly MVFR/IFR north with
SHRA and scattered TSRA. S winds 5-15 kts.

Thursday Night & Friday...Mainly MVFR/IFR with SHRA. Scattered
TS possible Friday. SW-W winds 5-10 kts Thursday night. NW winds
5-15 kts Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:
Winds will be light with seas around 2 ft today and tonight.
Humid air over the colder waters will continue to result in some
fog through tonight.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will remain well below Small Craft
Advisory criteria Tuesday night through the end of the week.
Patchy fog could reduce visibility over the waters at times
Tuesday night through Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms
possible over the waters late Friday.


&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Bloomer
Short Term...Clark
Long Term...Clark
Aviation...Bloomer/Clark
Marine...Bloomer/Clark