Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
782 FXUS61 KCAR 292343 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 743 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated aviation discussion for 00Z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) The next round of rain showers is expected for the end of next week, though drought relief is unlikely. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...The next round of rain showers is expected for the end of next week, though drought relief is unlikely. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... High pressure to the south will build through mid-week, bringing dry conditions until late week. Low pressure to the northwest in Canada tracks eastward, bringing a relatively weak cold front over the state on Friday. Pressure gradient between high pressure the approaching low, help produce some breezy southwest conditions Thursday afternoon into Friday. Not anticipating heavy rain or high rain totals at this time. Based on global models, PWATs are roughly 1.25-1.75 inches, with higher values concentrated around the central and Downeast regions. Models currently hint at precipitation generally moving in late Thursday night from the northwest, and moving through the southeast by Friday mid-morning to afternoon. There is still some model discrepancies in the exact timing, however. Some models do show moist soundings, but currently not anticipating totals over an inch. Continue to monitor the forecast for updates, as models begin to get a better handle on the atmospheric set up. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Conditions gradually improve to VFR throughout by late Wednesday morning. Confidence in timing indicated in TAFs for improvement is low to moderate. Winds become light and variable throughout this evening. For now only confident enough in winds greater than 5KT Wednesday, to show a sea breeze in KBHB Wednesday afternoon. Wednesday night-Thursday: VFR. SW winds G15-20KT possible Thursday afternoon. Thursday night-Friday night...MVFR or lower possible. LLWS possible Friday afternoon/evening. Saturday-Sunday...VFR. NW winds G15-20KT possible Saturday. && .MARINE... Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels tonight through Friday. Isolated/scattered showers this evening. Chance for rain Friday into Friday night, which could limit visibility. Coastal - 25nm, and 25nm-60nm zones could have seas approach 5 ft late Friday night. From Saturday-Sunday, winds over the waters out to 60nm should be 15 kt or less and seas 4 ft or less. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ASB/PM/CN AVIATION...ASB/PM/CN