Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
839 FXUS61 KCAR 121058 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 558 AM EST Wed Nov 12 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure moves north of the area today. A series of upper level disturbances will cross the region into Saturday. Low pressure will approach the region Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... 6 AM Update... Update to aviation section only. See below. Current radar shows light snow has moved out of the area as the trough axis exits Maine and moves off to the northeast. Winds will be elevated behind the departing trough as weak high pressure building in from the west combined with strengthening low pressure over the maritimes contributes to a strong pressure gradient over the area. Expect winds to gust 20 to 30 mph with the greatest winds over the north and higher terrain. Beginning early this morning winds will begin a downward trend throughout the day today, eventually becoming light and variable tonight. Weakening surface high pressure moving into the area today should mostly keep precipitation out of the area. However, a shortwave moving along the coast should result in a few showers over the waters and coastal regions. Expect precipitation to fall as rain as temperatures there will be in the low 40s. Tonight, a shortwave trough approaches the North Woods from the west and passes through the state. This should bring some isolated snow showers through northern and central Maine. On Thursday, a closed upper-low develops over the area. Upper- level shortwave energy is expected to wrap around the low through Maine during the day resulting in scattered snow showers in the north and rain showers in the south. Greater precipitation coverage will be in the south where a more pronounced shortwave disturbance is expected. Snow showers may be convective in nature as a cold pool from the upper low in combination with modest surface heating contributes to steep low-level lapse rates and a weak instability profile. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Upper level trof remain across the region Thursday night through Friday night as upper level low pressure closes off across the Canadian Maritimes. Expect mainly cloudy skies across the region Thursday night. An isolated snow shower is possible across northern areas and an isolated snow or rain shower is possible across the Bangor region and Downeast areas. Expect mainly to partly cloudy skies Friday through Friday night. Lows Thursday and Friday nights will be in the upper teens to lower 30s north and mid to upper 20s for the Bangor region and Downeast. Highs on Friday will range from the low to mid 30s north and upper 30s to lower 40s across the Bangor region and Downeast areas. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Low pressure at the surface and aloft will begin to retrograde to our north across Quebec province from the New Foundland Labrador region Saturday through Saturday night. Expect dry conditions on Saturday with mainly sunny skies expected. Increasing clouds are expected Saturday evening as low pressure approaches from the Great Lakes region with a chance of snow later Saturday night. Uncertainty exits with regard to where the approaching low redevelops during Sunday as upper level energy dives southeast from central Canada. The latest EC redevelops the low across the Gulf of Maine and then takes it east across central Nova Scotia during Sunday night. The GFS develops a low along the Downeast coast and then takes it quickly through the Canadian Maritimes Sunday night. The CMC is similar to the operational GFS. Based on ensemble data, there is a rather high degree of certainty that the area will receive precipitation Sunday into Sunday night. Snow is favored across the north and rain or snow across central and downeast areas. Again, the exact track of the low will ultimately determine precipitation type. The low will move to our northeast Monday and Monday night with mainly cloudy skies and the chance of snow showers along with a gusty northwest wind. Tuesday looks dry with westerly flow expected both at the surface and aloft. Afternoon highs will generally average near normal levels for this time of year. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: All terminals have improved to VFR and are expected to remain VFR with occasional MVFR through early Wednesday night. The exception is BHB which will likely become MVFR this afternoon in light rain showers. Winds 10 to 20 kts with gusts up to 25 and possibly 30 kts expected through early this morning but should be on a downward trend throughout the day today, becoming light and variable this evening. Conditions deteriorate to MVFR in the north late tonight with a few isolated snow showers possible. VFR south. Light and variable winds. On Thursday, VFR north/MVFR south. VCSH for northern terminals and -SHRA for southern terminals. N wind around 5 kts. SHORT TERM: Thursday night through Saturday night...VFR/MVFR. N to NW wind. Sunday...IFR. Snow north and rain snow south. E to SE wind. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A Gale Warning is in effect through 7 AM this morning. Gusts up to 35 kt will subside today with winds decreasing to below SCA criteria by mid-afternoon. Winds remain below SCA criteria through Thursday. Seas will be slower to subside and will still be at 4 to 6 ft this evening. Seas remain near SCA criteria Thursday. SHORT TERM: Winds/seas will remain below SCA levels Thursday night, then possibly increase to SCA levels Friday and Friday night. Winds are then expected to remain below SCA levels Saturday and Saturday night, then increase to SCA levels Sunday and Sunday night. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...SM Short Term...TWD Long Term...TWD Aviation...SM/TWD Marine...SM/TWD