927
FXUS61 KCAR 161822
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
222 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build into the area tonight. A cold front
will cross the region Thursday into Friday. High pressure
returns on Saturday. Another front approaches from the north on
Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The warm front across the north will keep clear skies and calm
S winds in the region tonight. Upper air model soundings
indicate a shallow inversion with an unmixed boundary layer.
This will keep temps fairly mild in the mid 60s with higher RH
values. Patchy fog is expected across the region tonight.

For Thursday, the large low pressure system center will track
NE across the St Lawrence as the cold front approaches the
region. High res models are in good agreement with morning
showers developing across the North Woods. As the prefrontal
boundary moves into the area, rain showers chances increase,
especially across the north. The concern for Thursday is the
amount of instability increasing in the north during the
afternoon. The prefrontal boundary and the morning sunshine will
provide the lift for the convection. As convection increases,
CAPE values reach above 1000 J/kg, low and mid level lapse rates
steepen, and bulk shear values increase. In addition, PWATs
will increase well above normal values to also 2 inches at
certain times. Due to the concern for strong thunderstorms and
possible flooding, decided to include the heavy rain and gusty
winds for any thunderstorms that develop.

For Thursday night, showers and isolated thunderstorms will
continue in the evening and early night as the cold front
advances. Models indicate the system intensifying before
midnight, thus increasing the speed of the front. After
midnight, the front will exit to the SE which should clear out
the rain showers and any patchy fog left from the night. The
region should see temps cooling with the W flow during the early
morning hours on Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Cold front will be well offshore Friday morning with possible wrap-
around showers lingering across the north for a few hours until
upper trof passes into Canada. Skies clear and become sunny around
lunchtime. Northwest winds appear to be strongest in the morning
under tight pressure gradient, weakening by afternoon as sfc low
heads into the Maritimes. Dewpoints will drop into the 40s/50s acrs
the north in the morning and over Downeast mid-late afternoon
making for a much more comfortable day.

For Friday night clear skies and light winds will promote optimal
cooling conditions with mins in the 50s area-wide. Saturday will see
temps warm into the 70s all areas, possibly into the lower 80s
over interior Downeast. Dewpoints remain comfortable in the 50s
with sfc winds out of the southwest. Cold front dropping south
out of Canada looks to remain north of the St. Lawrence Seaway
thru Saturday evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Cold front will drop into CWA late Saturday night and should move
thru during the afternoon. Showers, and storms in the afternoon,
will be possible per latest guidance for Sunday afternoon. High
pressure will be building in Monday into Tuesday before sfc high
builds offshore late Tuesday night. Temps will moderate early in
the week before climbing back above normal on Wednesday ahead of
the next system.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Aroostook Terminals: VFR conditions tonight and the
majority of Thursday. Conditions should decrease to MVFR/IFR in
rain showers and TS for Thursday afternoon and Thursday night.
Light S winds tonight becoming 5-10 kts Thursday.

BGR: VFR conditions this evening and early tonight. Conditions
quickly decrease to IFR/LIFR cig/vsby in patchy fog after
midnight. Conditions improve Thursday morning to VFR/MVFR and
remain for the rest of the day. Light S winds tonight becoming
5-10 kts Thursday.

BHB: VFR conditions this evening. Conditions quickly decrease to
IFR/LIFR cig/vsby in patchy fog by sunset. Conditions improve
Thursday morning to MVFR/IFR and remain for the rest of the day.
Light S winds tonight becoming 5-10 kts Thursday.

SHORT TERM:
Friday-Saturday...VFR. NW 5-15kts Fri becoming WSW 5-10kts Sat
morning.

Saturday night-Sunday night...VFR decreasing to MVFR late Sat
night from north to south as showers move in. Possible tstms
Sunday afternoon bringing brief IFR. SW 5-10kts becoming NW
5-10kts Sunday evening.

Monday...VFR. NW 5-15kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain below SCA conditions
tonight through Thursday night.

SHORT TERM: No headlines expected through the weekend. Seas
generally range from 1 to 3 feet over all waters.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for MEZ001>006-
     010-011-031-032.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...LaFlash
Short Term...Buster
Long Term...Buster
Aviation...LaFlash/Buster
Marine...LaFlash/Buster