648
FXUS61 KCAR 020702
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
302 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

- Slowed the onset and exit timing of the cold front today by a
  few hours based on current observations and trends

- Added slight chance for rain showers behind the front with
  weak shortwave following that primary synoptic feature

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Rain moves through the area today, though drought relief is
unlikely.

2) Widespread frost is expected for northern areas, with patchy
frost elsewhere in interior Downeast.

3) Another round of rain is possible Monday followed by gusty
westerly winds on Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Rain moves through the area today, though
drought relief is unlikely.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A cold front continues to push southeast towards our forecast
area, though remains west of the Saint Lawrence River Valley as
of 3 AM this morning. The front should push through the northern
half of the forecast area by late morning, then through the
Downeast region through this afternoon and early evening hours.
This timing has slowed down with recent model runs, and the
front may continue to slow down to a crawl through the state,
leading to a slow exit this evening off the coast. Forecast rain
totals today remain below a quarter of an inch, with many areas
receiving less than a tenth of an inch. The catch is that should
a coastal low begin to develop along the front as it approaches
the Downeast coast, this could locally enhance rainfall amounts.
Overall, there will be little if any impact on the ongoing
D1-D3 drought conditions.

Additionally, a 700 mb shortwave will follow behind this front
tonight, and could lead to lingering rain showers, particularly
in the north, through the overnight hours. However, not much
additional rainfall is anticipated from this feature.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Widespread frost is expected for northern areas,
with patchy frost elsewhere for the Bangor region and interior
Downeast.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
High pressure builds in behind the cold front Saturday, and,
with clearing clouds, will lead to temperatures falling well below
freezing overnight for northern areas. Temperatures will fall
into the low to mid 30s for central areas, with lows in the low
40s for near coastal areas. This could provide the first frost
of the season for some areas in the Bangor region and interior
Downeast. There is some uncertainty, however, of how far south
the frost could get. The exact position of the high pressure,
any coastal breezes, and any high cirrus clouds could all
influence the extent of frost. Regardless, people should be
prepared to protect any vulnerable vegetation across the area,
especially if they are in lower lying areas that typically get
colder. The frost/freeze program has ended for all counties
except Hancock and Washington counties, so frost headlines would
not be issued for Penobscot, Piscataquis, northern Somerset, or
Aroostook counties. Coastal Downeast should stay warm enough to
limit any frost, though check the forecast for updates.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Another round of rain is possible Monday followed
by gusty westerly winds on Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
Sunday night a cold surface high pressure that will have
brought widespread frost Sunday AM shifts to the east over the
Maritimes. A potent vertically stacked low pressure system
tracks into north-central Quebec with a trailing potent cold
front. That front will swing across the CWA on Monday at the
same time as a low pressure exits off the Mid-Atlantic coast.
The interaction between the high pressure and the two lows
provides significant uncertainty about rainfall. A few scenarios
are currently playing out in the ensemble models. 1. The high
pressure could dominate forcing the lows to stay to the north
and south, limiting precip. 2. The Canadian low could enhance
the coastal low as it rides the coast north, bringing more
substantial precip to coastal areas. 3. The Canadian low could
dominate, bringing enhanced precipitation along its cold front
from the moisture over the southeast low. At this time,
uncertainty from the models is high, so forecast confidence is
low, with a wide range of precipitation values.

Increasing confidence that Tuesday, as the low pressure system
deepens in the Northern Maritimes, we can expect strong surface
high pressure to dive over the eastern Great Lakes. This will lead to a
strong pressure gradient between the low and high resulting in
gusty W-WNW winds developing in the morning and peaking midday.
Probabilities for 35+ mph wind gusts have increased to 70-90%
with 40+ mph probabilities now 40-60%, mainly for Millinocket
and areas north. There is ensemble guidance suggesting a
potential of wind headlines but still uncertainty exists on
exact expected wind speeds/gusts. However, it is likely that
significant leaf loss may be possible in areas of Northern Maine
where peak foliage has been reached. Additional leaf loss
possible in the Central Highlands to Downeast Maine where the
foliage is moderate to high. Continue to monitor the forecast
for updates, as models begin to get a better handle on the
atmospheric set up.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Rest of tonight...MVFR across northern terminals while VFR
continues south of KHUL through the night. Improving conditions
for Washington county terminals as fog exits the area. SW winds
5 to 10 kts.

Today...MVFR conditions continue at northern terminals as rain
enters the area, with Downeast terminals beginning VFR then
lowering to MVFR as rain moves in this afternoon. Winds SW 5 to
10 kts shift NW behind a cold front, with gusts 20 to 25 kts
possible this afternoon.

Tonight...Improvement to VFR across all terminals, though
lingering MVFR possible at KFVE through KPQI with scattered rain
showers through around 06z. Winds N to NW at around 5 kts.

Saturday-Saturday night...VFR. Light and variable winds.

Sunday...VFR. S winds G15KT possible Sunday.

Sunday night-Monday...MVFR or lower possible in rain. S winds
Sunday night shift to W Monday with gusts to 20 knots.

Monday night-Tuesday. VFR/MVFR north. VFR Downeast.
Northwest/west winds 15 to 25 knots with gusts up to around 30
knots Monday night. Northwest/west winds 20 to 30 knots with
gusts up to 35 to 40 knots Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Today, SW winds remain under 20 kts and seas generally under 5
ft within 25 nm. Seas could briefly reach 5 ft around 25 nm
offshore this afternoon, but should quickly subside this
evening. Rain tonight could limit visibility. Winds shift NW
overnight tonight.

From Saturday into Sunday, N/NW winds over the waters out to
60nm should be 20 kt or less and seas 4 ft or less. Sub-SCA
conditions expected on the coastal waters Monday, with gusts to
around 25 kt and seas around 5 ft possible on the waters from
25-60nm.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     MEZ017-030.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AES/JMM
AVIATION...AES/JMM