266
FXUS61 KCAR 121228
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
828 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
- Frost Advisory allowed to expire.

- Updated aviation discussion.
&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Moderate rain showers expected Sunday afternoon into Monday
morning but should have minimal impact on drought.

2) Patchy/areas of frost possible across northern
areas Monday night.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Moderate rain showers expected Sunday afternoon
into Monday morning but should have minimal impact on drought.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A northern stream trough tracks across southeastern Canada from
Sunday afternoon into late Sunday night, then crosses Maine
from early Monday morning into early Monday evening. At the
surface a cold front will approach Sunday, then cross the area
Sunday night into Monday morning. This should bring some
scattered to possibly numerous showers to the region from late
Sunday afternoon into Monday morning. The strongest forcing will
be across the North, with that area in the left rear quadrant
of a developing 120+ kt upper jet. While surface based CAPE
below 200 J/kg is expected across this area serves as a limiting
factor, mid-level lapse rates of 6.5-7 C/km are forecast. So
some elevated convection, possibly even a rumble of thunder in
the afternoon/early evening hours is possible. The best chance
for any (elevated) thunder is across the North Woods and just
offshore.

Precipitable water values should range from 1.25 to 1.5 inches
across the North and 1.5 to 1.75 inches elsewhere. Around a
third of an inch of rain is likely along the coast and the St.
John Valley, with lower amounts elsewhere. Given the very dry
antecedent conditions, other than possibly some ponding of water
on roadways, no significant impacts are expected. As of now,
this is not expected to have any appreciable impact on ongoing
drought across the region.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Patchy/areas of frost possible across northern
areas Monday night.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
High pressure will build across the region behind the cold
front Monday, bringing clear skies and light winds. This will
result in favorable conditions for radiational cooling. Low
temperatures will range from the mid to upper 30s across much of
northern Maine. Patchy/areas of frost are possible Monday night
in the normally colder low lying locations.
&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Today...VFR. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming
south/southwest 10 to 15 knots.

Tonight...VFR early. VFR/MVFR, occasional IFR, late. South
winds 5 to 10 knots.

Sunday...VFR/MVFR, occasional IFR, early. MVFR/IFR during the
afternoon. Scattered/numerous showers. A chance of afternoon
thunderstorms, mostly north. South winds 10 to 15 knots with
gusts up to around 20 knots.

Sunday night...MVFR or lower in rain showers. Some river valley
fog is possible near KPQI and KHUL. S/SW winds 5-10 kt gusting
to 20 kt.

Monday...MVFR early, improving to VFR. NW winds 10-15 kt
gusting to 25 kt.

Monday night-Wednesday...VFR.
&&

.MARINE...
All waters should experience sustained winds less than 15 kt,
gusts less than 20 kt and seas 4 ft or less through Wednesday.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PM/JMM
AVIATION...PM/JMM/CN