294
FXUS61 KCAR 311802
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
202 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains over the area through Tuesday. An upper
level disturbance will cross the region Wednesday. High
pressure will cross the region Thursday. An occluded front will
begin to cross the region Friday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure over New England through early next week,
leading to dry and calm conditions for the near term period.
Skies will have a few cumulus clouds moving through this
afternoon into evening. Looking at mostly clear skies
overnight, with light and variable winds. High relative humidity
along with potential surface inversion could lead to some
patchy river valley fog tonight. Overnight lows in the upper-40s
to low-50s.

On Monday, high pressure remains. Clouds move in from the
morning through the evening, keeping daytime high temperatures
in the upper-70s to low-80s. Another potential for some river
valley fog to develop Monday night. Overnight lows in the
upper-40s to low-50s. Some of the models do have a low pressure
system over the Atlantic making its way northeast towards the
Gulf of Maine Monday night, but does not bring precipitation
chances overnight.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
An upper low lifts from New England to Quebec province Tuesday, with
high pressure at the surface. Generally expect partly sunny skies
across the region Tuesday. However, with diurnal heating along the
edge of the cold pool aloft could also have a slight chance of
afternoon showers across northwest portions of the forecast area.
The upper trof will begin to cross the region Tuesday night. Any
showers will end Tuesday evening with the loss of diurnal heating,
leaving partly cloudy skies across northern portions of the forecast
area. Expect partly cloudy/mostly clear skies Downeast Tuesday
night. The upper trof will cross the region Wednesday. Expect partly
sunny skies, along with a slight chance/chance of afternoon showers,
across mostly northern areas Wednesday. Mostly/partly sunny skies
are expected Downeast. The upper trof exits across the Maritimes
Wednesday night, while surface high pressure builds across the
region. Expect partly cloudy/mostly clear skies across northern
areas Wednesday night, with mostly clear skies Downeast. Near
normal, to slightly above normal, level temperatures are
expected Tuesday/Wednesday.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Surface high pressure exits across the Maritimes Thursday. A
vertically stacked system will remain north of the Great Lakes
Thursday, while a slow moving occluded front crosses the Great Lakes
and approaches western New England late. Expect mostly sunny skies
Thursday, with clouds then increasing Thursday night. Dependent on
the timing of the occluded front, could also have the slight
chance of showers starting to approach northwest areas later
Thursday night. The occlusion slowly crosses the forecast area
Friday through Saturday, though timing differences still exist
regarding how rapidly this occurs. An area of rain will occur
across the forecast area in advance of the front
Friday/Saturday. The front should begin to exit across the
Maritimes Saturday night allowing the rain to taper to showers.
An upper level trof could approach from the west Sunday, while a
disturbance moving through the trof lifts across the forecast
area. Generally expect partly cloudy skies Sunday, along with
only a slight chance of showers. Expect slightly above normal
level temperatures Thursday. Near normal, to slightly below
normal, level temperatures are expected Friday/Saturday.
Slightly below normal level temperatures are expected Sunday.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL: VFR conditions today. Few-to-scattered
cumulus clouds moving through northern Maine. Winds from the NW
today around 5kt, before becoming generally light and variable
tonight. Potential for some overnight valley fog tonight in
river valley terminals.

KBGR/KBHB: VFR conditions today. Few cumulus clouds moving
through Downeast Maine. Winds from the NW today around 5kt,
before becoming generally light and variable tonight. Potential
for some overnight valley fog in the vicinity tonight, but
confidence is low in fog being over terminals.

SHORT TERM:

Tuesday through Tuesday night...Variable conditions with any patchy
fog later Tuesday night. Otherwise, VFR. Slight chance of an
afternoon shower northwest. South/southeast winds 5 to 10 knots
Tuesday, then variable 5 to 10 knots Tuesday night.

Wednesday through Wednesday night...Variable conditions with any
patchy fog later Wednesday night. Otherwise, generally VFR. Slight
chance/chance of an afternoon shower. West/southwest winds 5 to
10 knots Wednesday, becoming south/southwest Wednesday night.

Thursday...VFR. South/southwest winds 10 to 15 knots.

Thursday night...VFR early. MVFR/IFR late. Slight chance of showers
late northwest. South/southeast winds 10 to 15 knots.

Friday...MVFR/IFR. Increasing shower chances. South/southeast winds
10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas below Small Craft criteria tonight
into tomorrow. Seas generally 3 ft or below over all waters.
Winds from the W/SW tonight around around 5 -10 kts, and shift
clockwise throughout the day on Monday. Become NE Monday night.

SHORT TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels Tuesday
through Wednesday night.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Brennan
Short Term...Norcross
Long Term...Norcross
Aviation...Brennan/Norcross
Marine...Brennan/Norcross