271
FXUS61 KCAR 040213
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1013 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An occluded front will cross the region tonight then exit across
the Maritimes Friday. Low pressure will approach Saturday, then
cross the region Sunday. Another low will approach Monday and
cross the area Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
10PM Update... Southerly flow has remained weaker than expected
ahead of an approaching occluded front and this has kept
temperatures cooler than forecast as warm air advection remains
weak. A few rain showers are currently present in the north and
moving quickly off to the east. Given that temperatures have
been stuck at 32 in the Frenchville area some freezing rain is
still possible in far northern Aroostook county.

Previous Discussion...
Low pressure will track north of Maine tonight drawing an
occluded front across the region from later this evening into
the early morning hours. Precipitation is now in the form of
rain across most of the forecast area with the exception of
northern Aroostook county where precipitation is in the form of
both rain and a light wintry mix. With temperatures slowly
warming through the evening, any light mixed precipitation will
also transition to rain. Rain then tapers to showers later this
evening before ending in the wake of the occluded front. Patchy
fog also possible early tonight. Skies then remain mostly
cloudy across northern areas overnight, with partly cloudy skies
Downeast. An upper level disturbance crosses northern Maine
Friday while a surface trof crosses the region. Could have
isolated rain/snow showers Friday afternoon. Otherwise, expect
mostly cloudy/partly sunny skies north with partly/mostly sunny
skies Downeast. Temperatures will slowly rise through the
evening, then slightly fall overnight in the wake of the
occlusion. Low temperatures will range from the mid 30s north,
to the upper 30s to around 40 Downeast. High temperatures Friday
will range from around 40 to the mid 40s north, to the upper
40s to around 50 Downeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Friday night...High pressure should remain over the region for
the night. Clouds should begin the clear towards the beginning
of the night, but with breezy NW winds and the 925mb temps near
-4C, surface temps are expected to drop into the upper 20s.

Saturday...The occlusion begins to move into the region. Recent
model runs show precip moving in by the afternoon. However, the
upper air models soundings indicate quite a bit of dry air on
Friday night which will be enough for the moisture to fight
against. Decided to hold back precip from moving into the west
until the late afternoon to early evening.

Saturday night...The triple point of the occlusion should move
across the waters causing winds to increase from the SE. Snow
should start to switch to mixed precip before midnight from SW
to NE. This will be the same sort of set up as the previous
storms where areas to the SE of the Central Highlands will
switch to all rain by midnight and areas to the NW of the
Central Highlands should see freezing rain and sleet. The CAD is
expected to stick around until early Sunday morning when the
warmer airmass mixes into the boundary layer the changes all
precip to rain.

Sunday...The triple point should develop into a closed low over
the waters with the occlusion moving across the region by the
afternoon. Breezy S winds should start to decrease and slowing
shift to the W. Rain is expected to continue for the rest of the
day, though most likely becoming showery by the afternoon with
the frontal passage.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As the system exits to the E by Sunday night, brief high
pressure moves in for Monday, allowing for some sun and mild
temps. By Monday night and Tuesday the trof begins to deepen
causing the next closed low to develop E of the Great Lakes.
Models have become more aggressive with the track of the low,
with the speed picking up. If the low keeps to the south, it`s
possible that the north could see plenty of snow for this late
in the season. Temps should be around normal.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR through the evening in fog and possible rain
showers. Potential still exists for freezing rain at FVE in any
showers. VFR/MVFR late tonight with precipitation ending.
VFR/MVFR north Friday with isolated afternoon rain/snow showers
possible. VFR Downeast. South/southwest winds 5 to 10 knots,
becoming west/northwest with gusts up to around 15 knots
tonight. Northwest/west winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts 20 to 25
knots Friday. Southwesterly to westerly low level wind shear
this evening through early morning.

SHORT TERM: Friday night...VFR.  Light winds.

Saturday...VFR. Chance of IFR vis late in snow and sleet. SE
winds 5 to 10 kt.

Saturday night...IFR tempo LIFR in snow/sleet/freezing rain and
IFR cigs. LIFR vis in fog possible later in the night for BGR
and BHB.  South winds 10 to 15 kt.

Sunday...IFR tempo LIFR due to cigs and vis in the morning;
improving trend in the afternoon. South winds 5 to 10 kt.

Sunday night...VFR most probable with a slight chance of fog.
Light winds.

Monday...VFR likely with a slight chance of AM fog.

Tuesday...MVFR/IFR in snow/rain. ENE winds 5-10 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all the
waters tonight through Friday morning with winds forecast to be
just above Small Craft criteria. A slight chance of rain this
evening. Patchy fog this evening through early morning.

SHORT TERM: There may a few gusts up to 25 kt from the west
Friday and Friday night. The next event occurs Saturday night
when an SCA seems probable with southeasterly winds gusting to
30 kt. These winds will gradually decrease Sunday morning as
warm and stable air moves over the waters. Another SCA is
possible Tuesday into Wednesday with a gale possible Tuesday
night into Wednesday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Friday for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$


Near Term...Melanson/Norcross
Short Term...LaFlash
Long Term...LaFlash
Aviation...Melanson/Norcross/LaFlash
Marine...Melanson/Norcross/LaFlash