Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
933 FXUS61 KCAR 292337 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 737 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level low pressure will drop south from Quebec tonight then slowly cross the region this weekend. High pressure will return Monday through the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... 7:35 PM Update...Updated the Aviation section to reflect the 00z TAFs. Otherwise, no changes with this update. Forecast remains on track at this time. Previous Discussion... Sfc low located north of Quebec City and slowly deepening will gradually be captured by upr low this evening. Sfc warm front (aka dwpt front) along the coast has moved northward with line of convection heading twd Houlton-Millinocket area this afternoon. Plenty of positive CGs occurring with this line but very little in the way of development with marginal instability and lapse rates. Will continue to keep an eye on radar for an isolated strong-severe cell. occluded front back to our west will continue to slowly push east into CWA this afternoon and evening. Low becomes vertically stacked late this evening and overnight with showers and isolated storms continuing after sunset. Patchy fog sets up along the coast tonight and moves in, though likely not as far north as this morning as winds will begin to back around to the southeast ahead of approaching occluded front late tonight. Occluded front will move thru ern zones shortly after 12z Saturday. Most of the showers and storms will be confined to eastern zones, especially over nern areas where convection pivots and takes advantage of the cold pool aloft. As a result temps will remain in the m-u 60s acrs the north and east with swrn zones creeping up into the 70s in the wake of fropa. Sunday night will upr low shifting east into NB late with showers continuing over the north on the backside. Lower H8 temps will drop mins into the 40s most locations by Sunday morning. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Low pressure pushes northeast into New Brunswick, as an upper level trough moves through Sunday into Monday, bringing a slight chance of some light rain showers in Northern Maine. Daytime highs generally in the upper-60s and low-70s. Showers taper off by nighttime and skies begin to clear out overnight. Winds become light and relative humidity increases, so there is a chance for some overnight fog to develop in valleys. Low temperatures in the upper-40s to low-50s. Ridging then moves in by Monday with a high pressure system, bringing another period of dry and calm conditions. Clear skies. Highs in the mid-70s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Ridging lingers around New England through the middle of the week. Upper level trough moves in again from the south, which could bring some light precipitation to northern Maine. Next chance for wetting rain could be late next week, as a deep trough moves east from the central US, with an associated cold front. Too early to tell of a severe potential, but there could be some rumbles of thunder. High temperatures in the 70s mid- week, before going down into the 60s post-front. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: Mainly MVFR from KGNR southward through 03-04z. Mainly VFR north of KGNR through 03-04z. VCSH at all terminals. Overnight, only expecting MVFR showers. Restrictions look to diminish to IFR or lower cigs after 04z at BHB and after 06-08z further north, along with patchy MVFR/IFR fog. Improvement to low MVFR toward end of TAF valid time with another round of showers and storms Saturday afternoon and evening. Patchy fog will reduce vsbys most terminals late Saturday night. S winds 5-10 kts through Saturday AM. Becoming W-NW in the PM. SHORT TERM: Sunday...VFR Downeast, with a period of MVFR north, becoming VFR from lingering overnight fog. VCSH at northern terminals during the day. NW winds 5-10kts. Sunday night - Monday night...VFR. May be some patchy valley fog Sunday night into Monday morning, which could reduce visibility. Winds from the NW at 5-10 kts Sunday night, before becoming light and variable by Monday. Tuesday - Wednesday...VFR with light winds. Could be a period of MVFR at northern terminals during the day on Tuesday and Wednesday due to light rain showers. Winds become S by Wednesday afternoon. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Seas below small craft levels through Saturday night with all waters dropping below 3 ft late tonight. Winds remain under 15 kts with winds out of the south thru tonight, becoming sw on Saturday then becoming nw through Sunday morning. SHORT TERM: Winds and seas below Small Craft criteria through early next week. Seas generally 3 ft or below over all waters. Winds from the NW Sunday morning, before shifting W/SW Sunday evening. Winds then shift clockwise throughout the day on Monday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Buster/Clark Short Term...Brennan Long Term...Brennan Aviation...Buster/Clark/Brennan Marine...Buster/Clark/Brennan