285
FXUS61 KCAR 021927
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
327 PM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain over the area today, and then move
east of the region Thursday. An upper level trough moves
through on Wednesday. A series of fronts will cross the region
Friday through Saturday, then exit across the Maritimes Sunday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure over New England through tonight, leading
to dry and calm conditions for the rest of the day. Skies are
partially cloudy this afternoon. Relatively clear Downeast early
this evening, before low stratus and fog is expected to develop
overnight. Winds are light and variable tonight. Similar to the
past few nights, high relative humidity along with potential
surface inversion could lead to some patchy river valley fog
development again tonight, predominantly in the north and
immediate coast. Overnight lows in the 50s throughout the
region.

On Wednesday, upper-level trough moves through ahead of deep
trough. There is a potential for some rain and thunder storms
tomorrow, primarily in the north and western portions of Maine.
There is some instability throughout the region during the
daylight hours. Daytime highs in the mid-70s. There are some
areas that could see between 800-1,200 J/kg of CAPE, minimal
CIN, and very favorable low level lapse rates. That being said,
the shear is very minimal. Daytime heating could help storms to
fire up, but lack of shear, average mid-level lapse rates, and
PWATS being below an inch, not expecting much in terms of severe
potential. A few thunderstorms, with an isolated strong one, are
most likely. Southerly marine flow will keep Downeast relatively
stable, dry, and cloudy. With high relatively humidity and
light winds, river valley fog may develop again. Overnight low
temperatures in the 50s.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure surface/aloft will begin to exit across the Maritimes
Thursday. At the same time, a vertically stacked system remains
north of the Great Lakes while an initial cold/occluded front
crosses the eastern Great Lakes and approaches western New England
late. Expect mostly sunny skies across the region Thursday. The
front then begins to approach western portions of the forecast area
late Thursday night. Clouds will increase across the forecast area
in advance of the front Thursday night. Showers could also begin to
expand across the forecast areas later Thursday night, dependent on
the timing of the front. The initial cold/occluded front appears to
weaken across the region Friday with showers, along with a slight
chance of thunderstorms. A secondary cold/occluded front should
then begin to cross the region Friday night keeping the risk of
showers across the forecast area. Slightly above normal level
temperatures are expected Thursday, with near normal level
temperatures Friday.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An upper level trof approaches Saturday, possibly helping support
the development of a weak low along the secondary front crossing the
region. This should lead to a steadier rain developing Saturday. The
front should begin to exit Saturday night allowing rain to taper to
showers. A disturbance moving through the approaching upper trof
should cross the region Sunday. Expect partly sunny skies along with
a slight chance/chance of showers Sunday. The upper level trof
should cross the region Monday, while high pressure builds toward
the region at the surface. Generally expect mostly/partly sunny
skies across the region Monday, though could also have the slight
chance of a shower across the north and mountains. The upper level
trof exits across the Maritimes Tuesday, while surface high pressure
builds across the region. Expect mostly/partly sunny skies across
the region Tuesday. Expect near normal level temperatures Saturday.
Expect slightly below normal level temperatures Sunday through
Tuesday.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL: VFR conditions today. Skies partially
cloudy. Winds light and variable into today, before slowly
becoming S at 5-10kts tomorrow. Potential for some overnight
valley fog tonight in river valley terminals. Rain begins to
move in from the west tomorrow, with a potential for some
thunderstorms in northern terminals during the afternoon.

KBGR/KBHB: VFR conditions today. Skies partially
cloudy. Winds light and variable into today, before slowly
becoming S at 5-10kts tomorrow. Expecting S flow to bring in
some low stratus and or fog to KBHB overnight, which could
reduce ceilings.

SHORT TERM:

Thursday...VFR. South winds 10 to 15 knots.

Thursday night...VFR early. MVFR/IFR late. Slight chance/chance of
showers late. South/southeast winds 10 to 15 knots.

Friday...VFR/MVFR. Occasional IFR/LIFR early. Increasing shower
chances. Slight chance of an afternoon thunderstorm. South/southeast
winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots.

Friday night...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR. A chance of showers.
South/southwest winds 10 to 15 knots.

Saturday...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR. Rain. South/southwest winds 10
to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots.

Saturday night...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR. Rain. Variable
winds 5 to 10 knots.

Sunday...VFR/MVFR. A slight chance/chance of showers. West/northwest
winds 10 to 15 knots.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas below Small Craft criteria tonight
into tomorrow. Seas generally 3 ft or below over all waters.
Winds from the S/SW tonight around around 5 -10 kts, and shift
to the S tomorrow. Potential for some patchy fog over the waters
tonight and Wednesday night.

SHORT TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels Thursday
through Friday. Wind gusts could approach small craft advisory
levels Friday night. A slight chance of showers Friday/Friday
night.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Brennan
Short Term...Norcross
Long Term...Norcross
Aviation...Brennan/Norcross
Marine...Brennan/Norcross