634
FXUS61 KCAR 051756
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1256 PM EST Wed Feb 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from the west today then crest south
of the area tonight. Weak low pressure will approach from the
southwest on Thursday and cross the area Thursday evening. High
pressure will build in from the west on Friday and crest over
the area Saturday. Low pressure will track to our south on
Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
12:30 p.m. update...Updated the winds to reflect continued
gusts to 30kts over the waters. Extended the advisories
accordingly. Otherwise, skies remain mostly clear. Temps and
winds have been updated to reflect current conditions.

Previous discussion...
High pressure building in from the west today will bring a brisk
and very cold northwesterly wind. Some low to mid clouds can be
seen streaming in from the NW and this may produce a few spotty
flurries early this morning. Otherwise, today will be sunny
downeast and partly sunny, becoming mostly sunny over the north
as high pressure slowly builds in.

This evening will begin mostly clear and become calm as high
pressure crests over the area. This will allow temperatures to
quickly fall, especially in the colder valleys of the north.
Some high clouds will begin to increase late tonight ahead of
the next low pressure system.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Thursday starts with surface high pressure over Maine and extending
into the western Atlantic. The ridge quickly shifts east as low
pressure across the northern Great Lakes tracks into western
Quebec by Thursday evening and a weak secondary low south of New
England moves toward Nova Scotia by Thursday night. Snow is
expected to overspread the area by Thursday afternoon, although
probably not reaching far northern portions of the CWA until
around sunset. Right along the immediate coast and outer islands
the snow could change to mixed precipitation or even rain for a
time, but the majority of the precipitation even along the
coast should be in the form of snow. All indications are that
this will be a sub-advisory level event with 2 to 3 inches of
snow, perhaps a bit less in the far north, and with the
potential that a few spots, mainly interior Downeast and the
Central highlands could locally receive 3 to 4 inches of snow.

Low pressure moving across Quebec tracks north of the area Thursday
night and pulls away into the northern Maritimes Friday. The
northwest flow behind the departing low will likely lead to
scattered snow showers, mainly so across the north and western high
terrain later Thursday night and Friday along with a gusty wind, and
a bit of blowing and drifting snow Friday in the open areas.  The
BTV snow squall parameter is also indicating the potential for snow
squalls, and model sounding do indicate very modest Cape between 850-
700 millibars, so there is at least the potential for snow squalls,
but confidence remains low, but it is at least worthy of
scattered snow showers.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Friday night will be breezy and cold with northwest flow and a
few more snow showers, mainly across the north. High pressure
briefly builds into the area Saturday making for a tranquil, but
cold day. The next weather system quickly moves out of the Ohio
Valley and toward the New England coast Saturday night with
increasing clouds and snow likely developing after midnight,
especially across the southern half of the CWA. The low rapidly
pulls east Sunday with snow to taper off to snow showers in the
afternoon. Given the progressive nature of the system it does
not look to be a major storm, but could reach advisory levels,
especially south of the Katahdin Region. Right now it looks
mainly dry for Monday and Tuesday with the next potential system
perhaps approaching just beyond the end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are expected across the area today
and tonight. Winds NW today gusting to 20 kts, mainly across
the north, then light SW becoming calm tonight.

SHORT TERM: VFR Thursday morning will rapidly drop to IFR in snow in
the afternoon. South wind around 10 knots.

Thursday night and Friday: IFR will improve to VFR at KBGR and KBHB
with improvement to MVFR by late evening at the Aroostook terminals
as snow ends as snow showers. Wind shifting west and increasing to
15 to 20 knots and gusty Friday.

Friday night into the weekend: MVFR at the northern Taf sites will
improve to VFR by Saturday with VFR at the Downeast terminals. W/NW
wind 5 to 15 knots, becoming light Saturday night, and NE 5 to 10
knots Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SCA and a freezing spray advisory will continue
this afternoon. Winds and seas will fall below SCA this
evening.

SHORT TERM: The wind and seas will likely increase to SCA levels by
Thursday afternoon, but with ongoing headlines today will hold off
on any headlines.  SCA conditions will likely continue into Saturday
with the chance for low end gales Friday into Friday night with
conditions easing Saturday. Another SCA likely on Sunday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ050-
     051.
     Freezing Spray Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$


Near Term...Bloomer/LF
Short Term...CB
Long Term...CB
Aviation...Bloomer/LF/CB
Marine...Bloomer/LF/CB