454
FXUS61 KCAR 301230
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
830 AM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
- Dense Fog Advisory allowed to expire.

- Updated aviation discussion.
&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) The next round of rain showers is expected for the end of
the week, though drought relief is unlikely.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...The next round of rain showers is expected for
the end of the week, though drought relief is unlikely.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
High pressure to the south will build through mid-week, bringing
dry conditions until late week. Low pressure to the northwest in
Canada tracks eastward, bringing a relatively weak cold front
over the state on Friday. Pressure gradient between the high
pressure and the approaching low could help produce some breezy
southwest winds Thursday afternoon into Friday.

Based on global models, PWATs are roughly 1.25-1.75 inches,
with higher values concentrated around the central and Downeast
regions. Models currently hint at precipitation generally moving
in late Thursday night from the northwest, and moving to the
southeast by Friday mid-morning to afternoon. There is still
some model discrepancies in the exact timing, however. Global
ensembles generally keep precipitation totals low (under a third
of an inch). Some members, though, do show a narrow band of
enhanced precipitation, near an inch, across the state, though
location is highly uncertain. Continue to monitor the forecast
for updates, as models begin to get a better handle on the
atmospheric set up.
&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Today...Variable conditions in any fog this morning. Otherwise,
VFR. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots.

Tonight...Variable conditions with any fog late. Otherwise,
VFR. Light and variable winds.

Thursday...VFR across all terminals. Light winds shift SW and
increase to 5 to 10 kts with gusts 20 to 25 kts by the
afternoon.

Thursday night-Friday night...MVFR or lower possible in rain
showers. Light and variable winds. LLWS possible Friday
afternoon/evening.

Saturday-Sunday...VFR. NW winds G15-20KT possible Saturday.
&&

.MARINE...
Winds light and variable, becoming WSW tonight and remaining
under 20 kt through Friday night. Chance for rain Friday into
Friday night, which could limit visibility. Coastal-25nm, and
25nm-60nm zones could have seas approach 5 ft late Friday night.

From Saturday-Sunday, NNW winds over the waters out to 60nm
should be 15 kt or less and seas 4 ft or less.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AES/JMM
AVIATION...AES/JMM/CN