689
FXUS61 KCAR 272212
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
612 PM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will exit across the Maritimes tonight. High
pressure will build across the region Saturday then remain over
the area Sunday into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
6:12 PM Update: Area radars show that showers across northern
Maine are dissipating with the loss of daytime heating. Moisture
will continue to rotate around low pressure in the Maritimes
tonight with a partly to mostly cloudy sky across the north
with more breaks in the clouds toward the coast. Only minor
adjustments for the first forecast period (tonight) based on the
latest radar, satellite, and observations. Overall, the
forecast remains in great shape.

Previous discussion:
Surface/upper level low pressure move east across the Maritimes
tonight. with surface high pressure building south across the region
overnight. Will still have isolated/scattered evening showers
across mostly northern and eastern portions of the forecast
area. Otherwise, expect mostly/partly cloudy skies across
northern areas tonight. Across Downeast areas, expect partly
cloudy skies early tonight with clouds then decreasing
overnight. Lingering low level moisture from the recent rain
could also help support patchy fog regionwide later tonight into
Saturday morning. Surface high pressure builds across the
region Saturday. However, aloft a disturbance rotating around
the exiting Maritimes upper low will also cross the forecast
area. Moisture wrapping around the exiting Maritimes system,
along with diurnal cloud development, will keep partly
sunny/mostly cloudy skies across the north and mountains
Saturday. Could also have the risk of isolated showers across
mostly northern and eastern areas. Generally expect partly
sunny skies Downeast Saturday. Low temperatures tonight will
range from the mid to upper 40s north, to the upper 40s to
around 50 Downeast. High temperatures Saturday will range from
the lower to mid 60s north, to the mid to upper 60s Downeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Saturday night will be mainly clear as high pressure settles
across the region with light winds. Lows will fall into the low
to mid 40s across the north upper 40s to near 50 for Bangor and
Downeast. The high drifts southeast during Sunday as a weak cold
front approaches. Expect partly to mostly sunny skies with
warmer afternoon highs in the mid 60s to near 70 in spots. The
cold front sags downs across the area Sunday night with partly
cloudy skies and lows ranging front the upper 40s to near 50.
High pressure builds to our north on Monday with mainly sunny
skies. The airmass behind the front is similar to Sundays, thus
highs on Monday once again could approach the 70 degree mark in
a few spots.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A mid/upper level ridge builds in for Monday night and Tuesday. At
the surface, high pressure centered to the northeast of the state
continues to drift east across New Foundland/Labrador. The light
east to southeast flow around the high will likley bring some patchy
clouds from the Maritimes into the region, with some upslope
enhancement in the higher terrain. With this in mind, not ideal
radiational cooling conditions, thus stayed close to NBM numbers for
lows Monday night. The dry weather pattern continues Tuesday
with the high continuing to drift well east of the Canadian
Maritimes. Uncertainty continues regarding the mid week
forecast. A cold front will be approaching later Wednesday as an
area of low pressure develops to the east of the mid atlantic.
The question remains as to how much interaction occurs between
the approaching frontal boundary and the developing low to our
south. Its several days away but the overall model consensus and
GEFS/EPS ensemble mean QPF forecast supports the NBM likely
pops for later Wednesday into Wednesday night. The system exits
later Thursday and Thursday night with higher pressure for late
week. Afternoon highs through mid week will be near normal.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Variable conditions with any showers early tonight,
then with any patchy fog later tonight. Otherwise, VFR early
tonight then VFR/MVFR overnight. Variable conditions with any
fog early Saturday. Otherwise, VFR/MVFR in the morning then VFR
in the afternoon. Isolated showers across mostly northern and
eastern areas. North/northwest winds 5 to 10 knots tonight, then
north/northeast Saturday.

SHORT TERM: Sat night through Mon...VFR. Light wind.

Mon Night through Wed ..VFR/MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels
tonight through Saturday.

SHORT TERM: Winds/seas will remain below SCA levels
through early next week and then possibly increase to SCA
levels by mid week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
0.93" of rain has been observed so far this month in Caribou,
Maine. If no additional rain falls this month it will end up as
the 2nd driest September on record behind only 1968 when 0.86"
of rain was observed. Weather records in Caribou began in 1939.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...CB/Norcross
Short Term...TWD
Long Term...TWD
Aviation...CB/Norcross/TWD
Marine...CB/Norcross/TWD
Climate...CB