Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
937 FXUS61 KCAR 221903 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 213 PM EDT Tue Sep 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Potential for frost tonight and Wednesday night across the north. 2) A coastal low could impact at least Downeast Maine late this week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Potential for frost tonight and Wednesday night across the north. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... High pressure will continue to build in throughout this afternoon and overnight tonight, resulting in favorable radiational cooling conditions as low lying valleys decouple. Patchy/areas of frost and fog are expected tonight and again Wednesday night in northern areas with temperatures dipping to near and below freezing each night in normally colder low lying and valley locations. KEY MESSAGE 2...A coastal low could impact at least Downeast Maine late this week. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... A coastal low is expected to develop across the Mid-Atlantic region later this week while high pressure remains centered over Quebec. The track of the ocean low is still uncertain with blocking high pressure to the northwest of our forecast area and ridging across the Great Lakes. Uncertainty remains regarding the northern edge of the precipitation shield and whether rain will reach Downeast Maine. Northerly to northeasterly winds could become gusty over the weekend, especially along the coast, as a tight pressure gradient forms. General trend currently is that the low pressure system will continue to move southwards due to the high pressure, with majority of the rain staying over waters and Downeast region. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... This afternoon...VFR. North/northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Tonight...Mainly VFR, though patchy fog is possible at PQI and HUL late. Light N to NE winds. Wednesday-Thursday night...Variable conditions in any patchy late night fog, otherwise VFR. North/northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Friday-Sunday...VFR north. VFR/MVFR Downeast with a chance of rain. Across northern areas, northeast/north winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming NE Sunday. Across Downeast areas, northeast/north winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20-25 knots at KBGR, and 30 knots possible at KBHB Saturday and Sunday afternoon. && .MARINE... Winds will be below SCA levels this afternoon and tonight before increasing out of the northeast with gusts 25-30kts over the outer waters early Wednesday morning into the afternoon. Seas will range from 2-3 feet over the intracoastal and coastal ocean waters today with 4-5 feet expected over the outer waters through the day on Wednesday. Gales possible over waters late week into the weekend. Building seas late week into the weekend, with outer-waters reaching up to 11ft possible this weekend, and up to 15ft over 25-60nm waters. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ASB/JS AVIATION...ASB/JS