085
FXUS61 KCAR 080007
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
807 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front slowly crosses the area tonight through early
Wednesday. High pressure will build in Wednesday night through
Friday. A weather disturbance will cross northern areas Friday
night followed by a return of high pressure on Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Update...
Cold front currently just to the west of the St. Lawrence River.
The front will continue to push southeast this evening and
tonight then slowly cross the region overnight as weak waves
of low pressure track northeast along the front. A steady rain
will overspread the region from northwest to southeast through
the overnight. The rain may be locally heavy at times later
tonight into early Wednesday morning. Lows by morning will range
from the upper 40s to around 50 north and the mid to upper 50s
for Bangor and Downeast.

The current forecast still appears in good shape no changes
needed at this hour.

See updated aviation section below.

previous discussion
Tomorrow, after the front passes, high pressure from the mid-
west builds into New England, with cold and dry air settling
over the area. Overcast skies,. With high temperatures expected
to be in the 50s in the north, and low 60s Downeast. Northwest
winds behind the front. Skies begin to clear out Wednesday
night, with some lower temperatures in the low 30s in the north,
and upper-30s Downeast. Potential for some frost and freeze
throughout northern and eastern Maine Wednesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure begins to build into the area behind the previous
frontal passage, leading to clearing skies and the return of dry
weather. As the high pressure begins to move in, a tightened
pressure gradient will lead to breezy conditions through the day
on Thursday. The associated cold air advection will lead to
temperatures only lifting into the lower 50s, to mid 50s along
the coast. The north could even struggle to escape the 40s
through Thursday afternoon.

For Thursday night, temperatures will continue to drop, this
time due to radiational cooling as winds diminish and skies
remain clear. Temperatures will likely fall below freezing
across the majority of the forecast area, with widespread frost
development expected.

As high pressure remains over the area on Friday, temperatures
will slowly rebound, lifting into the mid to upper 50s
throughout the region. Skies will remain mostly clear due to the
robust high pressure and dry air mass.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The ridge of high pressure will dominate the synoptic pattern
over northern and eastern Maine through the weekend and into
early next week. Pressure could top out at around 1030 mb and
maintain mostly clear skies and dry weather for the region.
Temperatures may slowly climb each day, reaching back into the
lower 60s by early next week. A low pressure system may approach
from the south, but current consensus across ensemble members
suggests that the ridge of high pressure will be strong enough
to keep any disturbances away from the area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL: VFR will give way to MVFR/IFR from NW to SE
across the terminals 03z to 08Z in developing rain. MVFR/IFR
through mid day Wednesday, then improving to VFR through the
afternoon. S to SW wind 10 to 15 kt, becoming N to NW overnight
from NW to SE. LLWS expected through 05Z Wed. N to NW wind 10
to 20 kt with G25 kt Wed afternoon.

Wednesday night outlook...VFR/MVFR N wind.

KBGR/KBHB: VFR will give way to MVFR/IFR 03z to 06z Wed.
MVFR/IFR aft 06z and continuing through mid afternoon Wed in
rain. Conditions improve to VFR Wed afternoon. S wind 10 to 20
kt tonight with LLWS possible, becoming N to NW by daybreak
Wed.

Wednesday night outlook...VFR N wind.

Thurs: VFR across all terminals. NW winds 10 to 15 kts with
gusts 25 to 30 kts.

Thurs night-Sun: VFR across all terminals. Light WSW winds
becoming 5 to 10 kts on Fri, then W 5 to 10 kts on Sat, and N
around 5 kts on Sun. Winds light and variable each night.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Small Craft Advisory tomorrow morning for the intra-
coastals, and through tomorrow afternoon for the outer waters.
Wind gusts up to 30 kts expected, and seas 4-7 ft. Visibility
will be reduced to 1 to 3 NM at times in rain later tonight
through Wednesday.

SHORT TERM: Winds will continue to gust 25 to 30 kts Thursday
morning, but gradually improve through the day on Thursday,
while seas remain below 5 ft. Winds and seas will then remain
below small craft advisory levels through the end of the week
and into the weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...
New record high temperatures for this date were established at
the following locations earlier today.

High today in Caribou was 81 degrees previous was 76 in 2016
High today in Houlton was 82 degrees previous was 79 in 1946.
High today in Millinocket was 82 degrees previous was 81 in 1946.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ050-051.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ052.

&&

$$


Near Term...ASB/TWD
Short Term...AES
Long Term...AES
Aviation...ASB/TWD/AES
Marine...ASB/TWD/AES
Climate...TWD