667
FXUS61 KCAR 290432
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1132 PM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure moves into the northern Canadian Maritimes overnight.
High pressure builds in Saturday and Saturday night, then exits
to the east on Sunday, as low pressure approaches from the
west. A warm front crosses Sunday evening, followed by a cold
front crossing Maine late Sunday night and Monday morning. High
pressure then moves in from the west through Monday night. A
coastal low approaches from the south on Tuesday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Update...
A vertically stacked system exits across Labrador overnight,
with a surface trof extending back across northern Maine. A
disturbance rotating around the exiting system will move towards
northern Maine late tonight. Expect mostly/partly cloudy skies
along with scattered flurries across the north and mountains
overnight, with partly cloudy skies Downeast. Low temperatures
will range from the lower to mid 20s north, to the mid to upper
20s Downeast. Have updated to adjust for current conditions
along with expected overnight temperatures and clouds.

Previous Discussion...
Saturday is a mainly dry day with increasing sunshine expected
by afternoon. Afternoon highs will range from the upper 20s to
lower 30s north and mid to upper 30s for the Bangor region and
Downeast. High pressure builds in Saturday night with mainly
clear to partly cloudy skies. Lows will range from the mid to
upper teens north and low to mid 20s for the Bangor region and
Downeast.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key message...Light snow expected across the north Sunday
through Sunday night with possible travel impacts.

On Sunday, low pressure will cross southern Ontario and move
northward through Quebec, bringing a frontal system across
Maine. The warm front will cross Maine from the south during the
day on Sunday, accompanied by light precipitation. Cold air
will linger in northern Maine through early afternoon, and the
precip should fall as snow through most of the day. Blocking
from the mountains will keep the precip as snow across the west,
but rain will mix in in the evening across the eastern side of
the forecast area. This will bringing some light snow
accumulation to the north through early afternoon. Chances are
low, around 20%) that advisory level snow will fall, and the
general expectation is 2 to 4 inches across the north.
Accumulation will be limited by rain mixing in and then melting
previously fallen snow. South of Millinocket, the period of all
frozen precipitation will be very brief, so fewer impacts to
travel are expected with mostly rain.

Behind the front, air will dry and cool quickly as a strong
cold air mass moves in. Fortunately, moderate winds should dry
out the roads ahead of the rapid drop in temperature, so the
risk of ice forming on hard surfaces is fairly low.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key message...Another accumulating snow event expected Tuesday
into Wednesday, impacting travel. Moderate likelihood that an
advisory or warning will be needed.

Monday night will be quite a bit colder with the colder thermal
profile and the potential for decoupling, and this may bring
the coldest air so far this season. Lows will be in the single
digits across the north, and in the teens across the rest of
Maine. This cold air will stick around through mid week, greatly
impacting the storm system moving up on Tuesday and Tuesday
night. Forecast models are still disagreeing on the exact track,
but are mostly keeping the low center just offshore, which
would bring northerly flow and keep the precipitation as all
snow for most of the forecast area. The Downeast coast may mix
with rain, but NBM temperatures may be a little warm given the
northerly flow, so there is a possibility precip will stay snow
all the way to the coast. There is a moderate to high chance
(35 to 40%) that more than 6 inches of snow will fall somewhere
in the forecast area, with the most likely area falling south of
the I-95 corridor and east of Bangor. The location is highly
dependent on how close to the coast the main low center tracks,
so there is still some uncertainty on where it will likely line
up.

After this low moves through, colder air will return again, and
temps are expected to remain below freezing through the end of
the week. Some chance exists for snow showers across the north
Thursday into Friday, but this does not look like a significant
event.
&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Expect VFR/MVFR conditions across northern areas
overnight into Saturday, with VFR conditions Saturday night.
Across Downeast areas, VFR overnight through Saturday night.
West/southwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots
overnight. West/northwest winds 10 to 20 knots with gusts 25 to
30 knots Saturday. Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming
variable 5 to 10 knots Saturday night.

SHORT TERM:
Sunday and Sunday night...VFR early Sunday, becoming
IFR/MVFR in the afternoon and into Sunday night. Some potential
for LIFR in snow for northern TAF sites Sunday evening. Snow
and rain, with rain more favored for BGR/BHB. S winds 10-20 kts
with gusts 20-30 kts, strongest winds BHB/BGR. LLWS likely.

Mon...VFR, except possible MVFR north. NW wind gusting 20-30
kts.

Tue...MVFR or lower possible in snow, especially south.
Confidence is increasing, but confidence in the details of this
event, including location, is still low.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A Gale Warning remains in effect for much of the
waters, with the exception of the intra-coastal waters,
overnight through Saturday afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory
remains in effect for the intra-coastal waters overnight
through Saturday afternoon.

SHORT TERM: South gales expected (greater than 75 percent
chance) late Sunday and Sunday night, with seas to around 10 ft.
Winds switch to the west Monday but remain near the border of
small craft and gale. Much improved winds/seas Monday
night/early Tuesday, but about a 50 percent chance of gales
around Tuesday night from a possible Nor`easter. Seas could also
build back up to around 10 ft, depending on the track of the
Nor`easter.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 PM EST Saturday for ANZ050-051.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Saturday for ANZ052.

&&

$$


Near Term...CN/TWD
Short Term...LF
Long Term...LF
Aviation...CN/LF
Marine...CN/LF