923
FXUS61 KCAR 021108
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
608 AM EST Sun Nov 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from the west today and slide
southeast of the area Monday. An occluded front will cross the
area Monday night. High pressure will build to our south Tuesday
into Wednesday. A series of upper level disturbances will
approach through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
610 am update...
Updated sky cover this morning over the northeast this morning.
No other chgs needed with this update.

Prev discussion blo...
Low has pulled into the Maritimes with sfc high slowly building
in fm the west. Pressure gradient will likely remain over the
area until later this afternoon as high pressure builds
offshore. NW flow should keep partly-mostly cloudy conditions
across the north in stratocu with downsloping winds leading to
mostly sunny skies Downeast. Cold air advection will keep temps
slightly below normal.

Winds back around to the southwest late tonight with clouds
beginning to increase twd daybreak on Monday ahead of occluding
system. Given moisture increasing over the area cannot rule out some
patchy river valley fog overnight.

Guidance continues to advertise showers moving into the northwest
very late in the afternoon and have reduced pops until closer to
21z. CAMs guidance is showing signs of a fine line coming through
with the boundary, right at the end of the period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Monday Night...
Cold front moves through from west to east Monday evening.
Enough instability for a line of locally heavy convective
showers along the front. Can`t rule out some thunder Downeast
and over the waters. Airmass ahead of the approaching cold front
is not as stable as is usually the case this time of year. The
period of showers will be pretty brief, with conditions drying
out fast later Monday night as cooler air moves back in from the
west.

Tuesday...
Main concern with the forecast is for the gusty westerly winds on
Tuesday. They could be close to as gusty as winds were on
Saturday, probably just a hair shy of Saturday, but close. Gusts
over 30 mph appear likely for most places, and could reach 40
mph in some spots. Opted to highlight winds in HWO. Airmass
appears unstable enough for a few showers in the northern half
of the area, mainly falling as rain, but Downeast should be dry.
Highs ranging from the mid to upper 40s north to the low to mid
50s Downeast.

Tuesday Night...
Winds gradually ease through the night, though probably don`t
totally quiet down. Any remaining showers in the north should
taper off early in the evening. Lows in the 30s.

Targets of Opportunity...
Slowed down onset of showers just a bit from NBM. Went a bit
warmer than NBM Monday night and Tuesday night since these
nights should be well mixed. Went a bit cooler than NBM in the
north during the day Tuesday thanks to mostly cloudy skies and a
few showers. Also went cloudier and higher on PoPs than NBM
during the day Tuesday. And finally, went a bit stronger than
NBM for winds/gusts during the day Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Active weather pattern mid to late week with fast westerly flow
aloft and systems about every 36-48 hours. The strength and
timing of these systems will be rather difficult however.

The first concern is for a system Wednesday night/early
Thursday. Models/ensembles disagree wildly on the amplitude and
strength of the system. Some pass the system just to our south
as a weak shortwave trough, while others with more amplitude
spin up a rather strong surface low that moves from west to east
through southern portions of our area. The stronger solutions,
which include many of the EC ensembles, give at least northern
portions of the area a few inches of snow early Thursday as rain
changes to snow behind a strengthening surface low. Of note,
some more of the 0z GEFS ensemble members came on board with
this solution. All this said, we are only going with chance PoPs
for now for most of the area, as still the most likely outcome
is only a weak system with no impactful snow. That said, a
notable minority of solutions are pointing at the first
measurable snow over roughly the northern half of the area.

Next weather system looks to come roughly late Friday or early
Saturday. Most models do have some precipitation, but there is a
wide range in temperatures, with a notable minority having us
cold enough for snow especially in the north, but a majority of
solutions favoring rain.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Brief MVFR cigs over northern Aroostook terminals
this morning but will gradually scatter out over the next hour
or two. VFR remainder of the day today. WNW winds will
gradually diminish during the day today.

Winds become more southerly very late tonight with some gusts to
near 20kts Monday afternoon. MVFR cigs and rain showers moving in
toward very end of TAF valid time.

LLWS possible on Monday.

SHORT TERM:
Mon night...MVFR/IFR in rain showers and low cigs. Conditions
improve to VFR late Mon night at Downeast terminals. SW wind
10-15 kts becoming W. Gusts to 20 kts. Possible LLWS.

Tue...MVFR/VFR north, and VFR from BGR south. W winds 15-20 kts
gusting to 25-35 kts.

Tue night - Wed...Mainly VFR. W wind 10 kts gusting to 20 kts.

Wed night - Thurs: Low confidence in aviation category and in
winds depending on the strength of a weather system Wed night to
early Thu. If the system pans out on the stronger side, IFR is
possible with snow north and rain Downeast, with SW winds
switching to NW 10-20 kts. If the system pans out on the weaker
side, MVFR/VFR would occur with just a chance of rain, and winds
would be closer to 5-15 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Small craft advisory has been dropped for the
intracoastal zone with remaining waters dropping off shortly
after daybreak. Conditions should remain below SCA levels into
Monday morning before winds increase out of the southwest with
marginal gales possible very late on Monday. Seas look to
increase to aoa 5ft late Monday afternoon.

SHORT TERM: Gale force SW winds possible Monday night (about a
50 percent chance), and very likely W gales Tuesday (about an
80 percent chance). Seas up to around 7 ft. Winds/seas ease a
bit into Wednesday, perhaps just below small craft. Wednesday
night/Thursday, forecast confidence is low, but small craft
appears likely, with gales possible.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ050-
     051.

&&

$$


Near Term...21
Short Term...TF
Long Term...TF
Aviation...21/TF
Marine...21/TF