Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC
002 FXUS62 KCHS 261745 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 1245 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front will sweep through late today, with high pressure building into the region Thursday and into the weekend. A low pressure system could impact the area early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A cold front will push off the coast this afternoon. Recent runs of the HRRR and HREF indicates that isolated showers may pass across extreme SE GA and the adjacent GA waters along and ahead of the cold front. In the wake of the front, a dry and cool air mass will spread across the forecast area. NAM indicates that H85 temps are expected to fall from 12C over Lake Moultrie at 0Z to 8C by 12Z Thanksgiving morning. Low temperatures are forecast to range from the upper 30s inland to the mid 40s along coast. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Aloft, a large mid-upper trough will extend across much of the East CONUS with the local area placed along the base Thursday and Friday, prior to the trough shifting across the western Atlantic Saturday. At the sfc, a cold front will be departing well east of the area across the western Atlantic with high pressure spreading across the Southeast in its wake this weekend. This airmass will usher in noticeably colder air across the region, with highs in the upper 50s/lower 60s Thursday only peaking in the low-mid 50s Friday and Saturday during the peak of cold cold air advection to the region. The main concern addresses overnight temperatures Thursday night and Friday night, with temps easily reaching the freezing mark for most locations along the I-95 corridor and well inland. Low temps should dip into the upper 20s/lower 30s Thursday night, then mid-upper 20s Friday night, but remain in the mid-upper 30s near the coast each night. The airmass should then modify on Saturday under another full day of sun while the mid-upper trough exits offshore. As a reminder, the growing season ended earlier this season, thus Freeze Watch/Warning products will not be issued for this event. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Dry high pressure will remain centered across the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast through Sunday under zonal flow aloft. This should continue to modify the airmass locally, with high temps generally in the upper 60s/lower 70s Sunday afternoon. Latest guidance continues to suggest the potential for a decent rain event early next week, beginning as early as Monday with a front extending/developing across the region as low pressure takes shape across the northern Gulf. The highest potential for rainfall should come Tuesday as the low pressure system advances across the Southeast, producing some much needed rainfall with amounts generally in the 0.5 to 1.5 inch range locally. Increasing clouds and showers could also limit afternoon highs, generally to the mid-upper 60s. Overnight lows will also remain warmer, generally in the mid-upper 40s inland to low-mid 50s closer to the coast. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Prior to the 18Z TAFs, a cold front was sweeping east from the Fall Line of the Carolinas and GA. Patches of MVFR ceilings and gusty southwest winds will continue across the terminal until FROPA between 19-20Z. In the wake of the front, winds should shift from the northwest and clouds should clear by midnight. During the early daylight hours Thanksgiving morning, winds should shift from the north between 5 to 10 kts. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions are expected at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals Thursday afternoon through Sunday. Flight restrictions are possible at all terminals due to showers associated with a low pressure system early next week. && .MARINE... Tonight: A cold front will push off the coast this afternoon. Recent runs of the HRRR and HREF indicates that isolated showers may pass across extreme SE GA and the adjacent GA waters along and ahead of the cold front. In the wake of the front, a dry and cool air mass will spread across the marine zones. Northwest winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 kts, with gusts into the low 20s after midnight. Seas should build to 2 to 4 ft. Thursday through Sunday: High pressure will build across local waters behind a cold front late week, with strong cold air advection and 1000mb geostrophic winds of 25-30 kts suggesting northwest/north winds gusting upwards to 20-25 kt Thursday night, then upwards to 20 kt Friday night. Seas should also build upwards to 3-5 ft during the peak of the event (largest across outer Georgia waters). Conditions could become marginally favorable for a Small Craft Advisory across outer Georgia waters Thursday night into Friday morning, but confidence in a more impactful event is still too low for a Small Craft Advisory issuance at this time. The pressure gradient will then become considerably weaker Friday afternoon and persist through the weekend as high pressure becomes more centered across the Southeast. There should be no issues across local waters through a bulk of the weekend. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...NED SHORT TERM...DPB LONG TERM...DPB AVIATION...DPB/NED MARINE...DPB/NED