926
FXUS62 KCHS 290703
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
303 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
All sections have been updated

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) A multi-day coastal flooding event will slowly diminish
  through the remainder of this week.

- 2) Sustained northeast winds will maintain a High Risk of rip
  currents along our South Carolina and Georgia beaches today.

- 3) Dry and warming conditions will continue through the week
  before rain chances increase late weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A multi-day coastal flooding event will slowly
diminish through the remainder of this week.

Astronomical tides have begun to trend lower and will continue
to slowly decrease into the weekend. Minor to moderate coastal
flooding will likely continue through the weekend at Charleston
for the morning/early afternoon high tides. Minor flooding will
likely occur at Fort Pulaski this morning and tomorrow morning
before diminishing for the weekend. Additional coastal flood
advisories will be needed for Charleston and Colleton counties
likely through Saturday.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Sustained northeast winds will maintain a High Risk
of rip currents along our South Carolina and Georgia beaches
today.

The combination of elevated northeast winds and tides, and
persistent long-period swell will support dangerous rip currents
along our beaches. A High Risk of rip currents is in place for all
area beaches today, driven by 5+ ft swells every 9 seconds. As winds
and tidal influences back off Friday, the rip current risk for the
South Carolina beaches will shift to moderate, while a high risk
remains for the Georgia beaches. An enhanced risk will likely
continue through Saturday (Oct 31), which marks the end of the 2026
surf season and the final routine issuance of the Surf Zone Forecast.


KEY MESSAGE 3: Dry and warming conditions will continue through
the week before rain chances increase late weekend.

High pressure will begin to slowly breakdown by Friday as upper
ridging aloft deamplifies. Conditions should remain dry through
Friday night, although a few marine-based showers could impact
the Georgia and far southern South Carolina coast Saturday as a
weak coastal trough forms just offshore. Temperatures will
steadily warm into the weekend, with highs pushing 80 away from
the coastline by Friday. Overnight lows initially in the 50s
will warm into the 60s.

A rather drastic shift in the pattern is expected this Sunday
and Monday as a southern stream shortwave pivots across the Deep
South and Southeast States. There remains uncertainty on how
strong this trough and any corresponding surface reflection will
be and as a result the overall amounts of rainfall and timing is
less than certain for being a few days out. This uncertainty is
best reflected in the LREF QPF fields which show large 6-hour
interquartile ranges during this time. While the specifics are
yet to be determined (degree of forcing aloft, amount available
instability, etc), it does appear conditions will become
increasingly unsettled this weekend into early next week with
higher rain chances. A brief break in the action likely comes
Tuesday and Wednesday with shortwave ridging building over the
deep south ahead of our next system. By Thursday, a rather deep
upper trough is expected to push across the central US and into
the east. While this trough is rather far out, it certainly is
one to keep an eye on as it brings a cold front from the west.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions prevail across the area with light northeasterly
winds. The only forecast issue is the potential for lowered ceilings
to impact the terminals again late this morning. Overall, the
setup is the same as it was for yesterday; however, model
guidance is mixed and not particularly aggressive with lowering
ceilings too much. Favoring a bit of a persistence forecast, we
have maintained a period of MVFR ceilings at all 3 TAF sites
starting around or just after sunrise and continuing through
about mid morning. Otherwise, northeast winds will remain
elevated and could produce some gusts into the 15-20 knot range
in Thursday afternoon as ceilings return to VFR by early
afternoon at the latest.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Gusty northeast winds are possible at the
terminals this weekend into early next week, primarily during the
afternoon hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Today and Tonight: A persistent inland wedge of high pressure will
maintain elevated northeast winds and seas through tonight. Small
Craft Advisories remain in effect for all nearshore waters out 20 nm
(excluding the Charleston Harbor) and the offshore GA waters out 60
nm. For today, expect northeast wind gusts of 25 to 30 kt, nearshore
seas of 4 to 7 ft, and offshore seas of 7 to 9 ft. After midnight,
conditions will gradually improve with some Small Craft Advisories
beginning to drop Friday morning.

Friday through Tuesday: Conditions will improve markedly on Friday
as the pressure gradient relaxes, bringing an end to the prolonged
Small Craft Advisories for the nearshore waters (out 20 nm).
However, improvement will be short-lived. Restrengthening of the
inland wedge to the north this weekend and then the development of a
weak coastal trough afterwards will drive northeast gusts back up to
25-30 kt and building seas above 6 ft. Another round of Small Craft
Advisories for the nearshore waters could be needed Saturday
afternoon potentially into Tuesday. A Small Craft Advisory for the
outer Georgia waters (from 20-60 nm) will likely continue through
the entire period as 6 ft seas or greater will remain.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for GAZ217-219-239-
     241.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 AM this morning to noon EDT
     today for GAZ217-219-239-241.
SC...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for SCZ148>151.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 AM this morning to noon EDT
     today for SCZ148>151.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for AMZ360-362.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for AMZ364.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ384.

&&

$$

Black/BRS