312
FXUS62 KCHS 032324
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
724 PM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend across the area through late week. A
cold front will move through from the northwest late Sunday,
stalling just offshore through the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Not much change synoptically tonight as an upper level low
pivots across the Great Lakes region, supporting a more west-
southwest flow across the Southeast. Although weakening,
surface high pressure will hold through the night supporting
mostly clear skies. Winds will decouple and remain calm away
from the beaches. Overnight min temps should range from the
low/mid 60s inland to the upper 60s/lower 70s along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Thursday through Saturday: Overall, expect dry but warming
conditions across the forecast area through the first part of the
weekend. The area will sit within a weakly forced region ahead of a
front that will approach from the northwest on Saturday. Model
soundings feature warm profiles and sufficient capping to prevent
much in the way of diurnal convection each afternoon and evening.
The most noticeable change will be warming temperatures each day. We
should see near normal highs/lows return Thursday, followed by
widespread low 90s by Friday, and even some mid 90s for Saturday.
Dewpoints will rebound as well and heat index values up around 100
will be possible Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As we move into the latter half of the weekend and into early next
week, the pattern is expected to be more active and unsettled. The
aforementioned front will drop into the area Saturday night into
Sunday, followed by high pressure wedging in early next week with a
coastal trough setting up just offshore. Sunday should bring our
first rain chances along the front, followed by rain chances each
day Monday and Tuesday thanks to precipitable water values upwards
of 2 inches and the nearby coastal trough. The best chances of rain
during the early week period should be concentrated along the
coastal corridor, but more detailed placement and coverage will
depend on the proximity and evolution of the coastal trough.
Temperatures are expected to be at or slightly above normal Sunday,
followed by well below normal temperatures early next week behind
the front.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions expected at KCHS/KJZI/KSAV through the 00Z TAF
period.

Extended Aviation Forecast: VFR conditions will prevail through
at least Friday. There is a low chance for some morning fog and
stratus Saturday morning, mostly inland. The next chance of
showers and thunderstorms will come Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: Winds will trend weaker this evening as the pressure
gradient relaxes, dropping below 10 kt tonight. Seas will also
subside tonight, becoming 1-3 ft across the nearshore waters and 3-4
ft across the outer waters.

Thursday through Monday: Conditions will be pretty quiet across the
local waters through Saturday with modest onshore flow prevailing. A
front is expected to push through the area on Sunday, with high
pressure inland and an offshore coastal trough setting up as we move
into early next week. As this setup takes shape on Monday, a surge
of northeast flow will be possible which could bring Small Craft
Advisory conditions to at least portions of the local waters.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Today`s early evening high tide along the Charleston Harbor is
expected to fall short of 7.0 ft MLLW.

Astronomical tide levels will continue to increase through the
weekend, getting as high as 6.4 ft MLLW by the Sunday evening high
tide cycle. However, winds will become less favorable for large
tidal departures during this time period but observed peak tides
could still top out around 7 ft MLLW at Charleston each evening.

Astronomical tide levels will then remain high from late in the
weekend into early next week thanks to the upcoming full moon (9/7)
and perigee (9/10). Winds are expected to become more favorable for
increased tidal departures early next week which will produce an
increasing probability of at least minor coastal flooding.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BRS
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...BSH/CPM
MARINE...BRS/BSH