


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
990 FXUS62 KCHS 152245 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 645 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will extend into the region this week. A dry cold front will drop south through the area tonight. Another cold front could impact the area late in the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Early this evening: No change to the forecast through the overnight. Very quiet conditions will prevail as dry high pressure centered across the Great Lake region remains in control. Temperatures should be similar to last night, perhaps a degree or two cooler with mid to upper 50s away from the immediate coast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... Aloft, a large ridge will extend across the Central United States while a trough digs across the Northeast and shifts offshore. The trough will help push a dry cold front through the area early Thursday, followed by high pressure becoming centered across the Carolinas heading into the weekend. A quiet/dry forecast is expected with a light/cooler north- northeast wind persisting through the weekend. In general, highs should range in the mid 70s north to around 80 south on Thursday, then low 70s north to mid 70s south on Friday as cold air advection persists. Overnight lows could dip into the mid- upper 40s across areas well inland and north across the Francis Marion Thursday night and Friday night. By Saturday, conditions start to warm back into the upper 70s/lower 80s under a full sun and dry high pressure centered nearby. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A large mid level trough will swing towards the East Coast on Sunday, helping push a cold front through the local area Sunday night into early Monday. Few to scattered showers are possible during fropa, but overall rainfall amounts do not appear significant given the lack of stronger instability, deeper moisture and faster progression of the front. Dry high pressure should then build across the region early next week, leading to precip-free conditions and a gradual warmup into the upper 70s/lower 80s for highs and upper 40s/lower 50s inland to upper 50s/lower 60s across coastal areas for lows next week. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions will prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV through 00z Friday. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions are expected at the CHS, JZI, and SAV terminals through Saturday. Brief flight restrictions are possible at all terminals due to showers associated with a passing cold front Sunday. && .MARINE... Tonight: As high pressure continues to build down from the northwest, northerly winds will prevail at 10 to 15 kts, with gusts up to 20 kts through the rest of the evening. Overnight, winds will veer northerly at 10 to 15 kts with gusts up to 20 kts across the nearshore waters and 15 to 20 kts with 21-22 kts across the outer Georgia waters. As east-north-easterly swell tapers back through tonight, seas will range 2 to 4 ft across the nearshore waters and 4 to 6 ft across outer Georgia waters. A Small Craft Advisory for the outer Georgia water remains in effect until Friday night for elevated seas and winds. Thursday through Monday: Cold air advection in wake of a passing cold front will favor north-northeast winds gusting to the 15-20 kt range Thursday into Thursday night, suggesting conditions to fall short of Small Craft Advisory criteria for all nearshore waters as seas are slow to build to 3-5 ft. Further offshore, a Small Craft Advisory will continue across outer Georgia waters into Friday night for 6 ft seas, before the pressure gradient weakens in response to high pressure becoming more centered across the Carolinas and far western Atlantic. The next cold front will approach the area Sunday, likely passing across the waters Sunday night. Southerly winds will increase ahead of the front, with some gusts approaching 20-25 kt and seas approaching 4-6 ft (mainly across outer Georgia waters) Sunday night into early Monday. Additional Small Craft Advisories could eventually be needed early next week. Rip Currents: With northeast winds and elevated wave heights, a Moderate Risk of rip currents remains across the southeast Georgia beaches through the evening. Also, north-northeasterly winds developing in wake of a passing front along with 3 ft swell every 10 seconds supports a Moderate Risk of rip currents along all beaches tomorrow (Thursday), and again for Georgia beaches on Friday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... There is a threat for minor coastal flooding with the late afternoon high tide cycles through Friday along the Charleston and Colleton county coasts, as gusty northeast winds are expected to drive up tidal departures. Current forecast keeps tide levels on the lower end of minor flooding thresholds. The risk should lower heading into the weekend as high pressure shifts overhead and eventually offshore, leading to a less favorable wind direction locally. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Friday night for AMZ374. && $$ NEAR TERM...BSH SHORT TERM...DPB LONG TERM...DPB AVIATION...BSH/DPB MARINE...Dennis/DPB