990
FXUS62 KCHS 152245
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
645 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend into the region this week. A dry cold
front will drop south through the area tonight. Another cold
front could impact the area late in the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Early this evening: No change to the forecast through the
overnight. Very quiet conditions will prevail as dry high
pressure centered across the Great Lake region remains in
control. Temperatures should be similar to last night, perhaps a
degree or two cooler with mid to upper 50s away from the
immediate coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Aloft, a large ridge will extend across the Central United
States while a trough digs across the Northeast and shifts
offshore. The trough will help push a dry cold front through the
area early Thursday, followed by high pressure becoming
centered across the Carolinas heading into the weekend. A
quiet/dry forecast is expected with a light/cooler north-
northeast wind persisting through the weekend. In general, highs
should range in the mid 70s north to around 80 south on
Thursday, then low 70s north to mid 70s south on Friday as cold
air advection persists. Overnight lows could dip into the mid-
upper 40s across areas well inland and north across the Francis
Marion Thursday night and Friday night. By Saturday, conditions
start to warm back into the upper 70s/lower 80s under a full sun
and dry high pressure centered nearby.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A large mid level trough will swing towards the East Coast on
Sunday, helping push a cold front through the local area Sunday
night into early Monday. Few to scattered showers are possible
during fropa, but overall rainfall amounts do not appear
significant given the lack of stronger instability, deeper
moisture and faster progression of the front. Dry high pressure
should then build across the region early next week, leading to
precip-free conditions and a gradual warmup into the upper
70s/lower 80s for highs and upper 40s/lower 50s inland to upper
50s/lower 60s across coastal areas for lows next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV through 00z
Friday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions are expected at the
CHS, JZI, and SAV terminals through Saturday. Brief flight
restrictions are possible at all terminals due to showers
associated with a passing cold front Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: As high pressure continues to build down from the
northwest, northerly winds will prevail at 10 to 15 kts, with
gusts up to 20 kts through the rest of the evening. Overnight,
winds will veer northerly at 10 to 15 kts with gusts up to 20
kts across the nearshore waters and 15 to 20 kts with 21-22 kts
across the outer Georgia waters. As east-north-easterly swell
tapers back through tonight, seas will range 2 to 4 ft across
the nearshore waters and 4 to 6 ft across outer Georgia waters.
A Small Craft Advisory for the outer Georgia water remains in
effect until Friday night for elevated seas and winds.

Thursday through Monday: Cold air advection in wake of a
passing cold front will favor north-northeast winds gusting to
the 15-20 kt range Thursday into Thursday night, suggesting
conditions to fall short of Small Craft Advisory criteria for
all nearshore waters as seas are slow to build to 3-5 ft.
Further offshore, a Small Craft Advisory will continue across
outer Georgia waters into Friday night for 6 ft seas, before the
pressure gradient weakens in response to high pressure becoming
more centered across the Carolinas and far western Atlantic.
The next cold front will approach the area Sunday, likely
passing across the waters Sunday night. Southerly winds will
increase ahead of the front, with some gusts approaching 20-25
kt and seas approaching 4-6 ft (mainly across outer Georgia
waters) Sunday night into early Monday. Additional Small Craft
Advisories could eventually be needed early next week.

Rip Currents: With northeast winds and elevated wave heights, a
Moderate Risk of rip currents remains across the southeast
Georgia beaches through the evening. Also, north-northeasterly
winds developing in wake of a passing front along with 3 ft
swell every 10 seconds supports a Moderate Risk of rip currents
along all beaches tomorrow (Thursday), and again for Georgia
beaches on Friday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a threat for minor coastal flooding with the late
afternoon high tide cycles through Friday along the Charleston
and Colleton county coasts, as gusty northeast winds are
expected to drive up tidal departures. Current forecast keeps
tide levels on the lower end of minor flooding thresholds. The
risk should lower heading into the weekend as high pressure
shifts overhead and eventually offshore, leading to a less
favorable wind direction locally.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Friday night for
     AMZ374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...BSH/DPB
MARINE...Dennis/DPB