Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC
652 FXUS62 KCHS 260033 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 733 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front will sweep through late Wednesday. High pressure will usher in colder weather Thursday through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Evening Update: A mix of limited low and high clouds continues after sunset this evening. A few automated sensors are reporting fog, but webcams do to support this, with any fog that does exist being very shallow and light. Mixing increases through the rest of the evening as well, further limiting the fog threat. Tonight: Expect warm, southerly slow to persist overnight as the aforementioned cold front approaches the region and a pronounced pre- frontal low-lvl jet intensifies across the Southeastern CONUS. With plenty of moisture remaining across the region, it`s possible to see some pre-frontal showers across the interior counties a couple hours before sunrise. This will keep the boundary layer well-mixed with lows in the 58-62 range inland with lower 60s at the beaches. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Wednesday: As longwave troughing dominates aloft, an initial weaker cold front will cross the area Wednesday afternoon, with a secondary stronger cold front passing through the region late in the evening. Expect to see a couple isolated showers in the morning across the interior counties as a considerable amount of moisture remains with PWATs ranging from 1.5 to 1.75 inches. However, dry-air is expected to take- over in the afternoon and rain chances will significantly decrease across the coastal counties ahead of the boundary. Also, with the lack of dynamics present, it`ll be difficult to see much rainfall (esp. near the coastline). It`s important to note that southwesterly winds will become quite gusty out ahead of the front, and the forecast is likely underdone in this category. Temperatures will reach into the mid to upper 70s, before dropping out overnight behind the passage of the cold front with lows dipping into the upper 30s to low 40s across the interior counties and mid to low 50s at the beaches. Thursday and Friday: Expect cold, dry conditions to persist into Friday as high pressure builds into the region behind the frontal passage. Aloft, zonal flow will takeover and maintain quiet conditions across the Southeastern CONUS. A rain-free forecast has been maintained until the end of this period. However, temperatures will be noticeably cooler, with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s on Thursday and the low to mid 50s on Friday. Overnight lows will dip into the 30s across most locations Thursday night, with freezing temperatures likely across the far interior. However, the local frost/freeze program ended earlier this month with the widespread freeze, so no Freeze headlines will be issued. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Dry, cool conditions will persist throughout the weekend as zonal flow dominates the pattern aloft and high pressure remaining situated at the surface. Therefore, a rain-free forecast has been maintained with temperatures below normal. There has been some indication of a coastal low forming and impacting the region early next week in some of the deterministic guidance. However, a good amount of uncertainty remains on timing and arrival of this system. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 26/00z TAF Discussion: KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR prevails under calm conditions this evening. Fog currently reported by the JZI sensor is not supported by webcams, and VFR TAF remains in place. The gradient increases through rest of the evening, bringing a more definitive end to the already very low fog threat. SSW winds become gusty through the later morning hours Wednesday as a cold front approaches. A few showers are possible, but coverage and intensity are too low to justify even a mention in the TAF. Expect an abrupt wind shift from SW to W as an initial cold front crosses the terminals Wednesday afternoon, with a secondary cold front bringing winds NW Wednesday evening. Extended Aviation Outlook: Prevailing VFR. && .MARINE... Evening Update: Light onshore winds and RH of 90% will bring a brief window where patchy to areas of sea fog could develop, mainly along the coast near and north of Savannah. Any fog should dissipate by late evening as the gradient begins to tighten. Tonight: With the low-lvl jet intensifying and the cold front approaching from the Deep South, southerly flow will increase to 10 to 15 kts with gusts up to 20 kts possible through the early morning hours Wednesday. Seas will average 2 to 3 ft in the nearshore wasters and 3 to 4 ft offshore waters. Wednesday through Friday: A cold front is forecast to push through the region late Wednesday evening. Southwesterly winds will surge ahead of the approaching front on Wednesday. It`s possible to see wind speeds of 15 to 20 kts with some gusts to 22-23 kts possible (mainly in the Charleston nearshore waters). Post-FROPA conditions will yield a wind shift to the northeast as high pressure builds into the marine waters with speeds of 10 to 15 kts and gusts up to 20 kts. Small Craft Advisories will not be issued at this time as conditions remain below the criteria. Seas will range from 2 to 3 ft with 4 footers possible in the 20 to 60 nm offshore GA waters. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...CEB/Dennis SHORT TERM...Dennis LONG TERM...Dennis AVIATION...CEB/Dennis/JRL MARINE...Dennis