216
FXUS62 KCHS 171448
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1048 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front will dissipate across the area today, as
high pressure builds from the northeast. High pressure will
then continue to ridge in from offshore mid to late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Today: Aloft, a large ridge will be centered across the Southeast
and Mid-Atlantic states, favoring large scale subsidence across the
local area. At the sfc, high pressure centered across the western
Atlantic off the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast Coast will extend south
across the local area, providing an onshore flow throughout the day.
Despite the onshore flow, large scale subsidence and dry air
depicted on water vapor imagery favor rain-free conditions across
all areas today, although a brief shower can not be ruled out with
an inland moving seabreeze this afternoon. 1000-850mb thicknesses
along with ample sunshine favor high temps in the upper 80s closer
to the coast to lower 90s inland.

Tonight: There is very little change in the pattern, both
surface and aloft, with deep high pressure firmly in control.
With the dew points generally down in the 60s, winds slackening
off through the night, and no worse than mostly clear or partly
cloudy skies, minimum temperatures look to drop to 65-70F well
inland, lower and middle 70s closer to the Atlantic.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure both aloft and at the surface will be centered over
New England, extending into the local forecast area from the NE on
Tuesday. This pattern will persist into Wednesday, when the centers
of high pressure begin to shift eastward, taking up residence closer
to Bermuda. Subsidence aloft will begin to break down as the high
pressure moves further offshore. A weak coastal trough is expected
to form along the southern periphery of the ridging aloft, leading
to isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and
Wednesday afternoons. Precipitation will likely be confined to the
coastal zones of extreme southern SE SC and SE GA. Precipitation
chances will gradually increase through the week, as well as an
increase in areal coverage, as persistent onshore flow brings an
influx of moisture into the region. Temperatures are expected to be
around normal, to maybe even slightly below normal. The forecast
features highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and overnight lows in the
upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Subsidence will continue to diminish aloft with the retreating high
pressure at the surface and aloft. The forecast will trend back
towards a more typical summertime pattern, with isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon hours. Moisture
is forecast to begin streaming into the region late week as a
possible low pressure lingers off the east coast of Florida. This
additional moisture will help to enhance afternoon showers and
thunderstorms, especially across southeast GA later in the week.
Temperatures are expected to remain near normal.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: Strong subsidence and considerably dry air between
about 10K and 40K feet will result in little or no convection at any
of the sites through 12Z Tuesday. Thus, prevailing VFR conditions
are expected at all terminals. However, a brief period of MVFR
ceilings is possible at the SAV terminal this morning due to the
onshore flow. Gusty easterly winds will peak around 15-20 kt
for all terminals this afternoon, before dropping off with
sunset.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Prevailing VFR. Brief flight restrictions
are possible in afternoon showers/thunderstorms Tuesday and
Wednesday, especially at KSAV. Chances of flight restrictions
increase at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals later in the week with showers and
thunderstorms moving onshore.

&&

.MARINE...
Today and Tonight: High pressure will remain the dominant weather
feature, extending across the region from the north and enhancing
the pressure gradient across local waters. The gradient along with
an afternoon seabreeze circulation and nocturnal low-lvl jetting
will favor easterly winds around 10-15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt
at times. Seas will also slowly build during the period due to a
favorable/prolonged onshore fetch. In general, seas should build to
3-4 ft across nearshore waters and 4-5 ft across offshore Georgia
waters, largest overnight.

Tuesday through Friday: Generally, high pressure will prevail over
the local waters through the period. With high pressure extending
into the region from the northeast and a developing low pressure off
the east coast of FL the pressure gradient is expected to pinch
Tuesday into late week. This pinched gradient will likely result in
E winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts to 25 knots and seas building to
as high as 5 to 6 ft across the nearshore waters and 8 to 9  ft
across the 20-60 nm offshore GA waters. Small Craft Advisories will
likely be needed for most, if not all, marine waters beginning as
early as Tuesday night for the 20-60 nm offshore GA waters.

Rip Currents: A continued onshore wind that averages around 15
mph, plus a small swell will produce a Moderate Risk of rip
currents at the area beaches today.

A Moderate Risk for rip currents will remain in place through
Tuesday with increasing swells. At least a Moderate Risk for
rip currents will likely continue for all beaches through the
middle of the week as swell energy continues to increase ahead
of a low pressure approaching the Southeast United States late
week.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
Our office phones are down, with the telephone company working
on correcting the problem.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DPB
MARINE...DPB