489
FXUS62 KCHS 281859
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
259 PM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
All sections have been updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) The coastal flood risk will linger this week.

- 2) Warm and dry conditions will extend through most of the
  week.

- 3) Unsettled weather could return late week, and possibly
  persisting through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: The coastal flood risk will linger this week.

There is a continued risk for minor to near moderate coastal
flooding through much of the week, mainly centered along the
coastal portions of Charleston and Colleton Counties. Coastal
flooding will be near moderate levels both Tuesday and Wednesday
mornings with minor flooding Thursday and possibly Friday
mornings. Much of the guidance supports minor flooding during
this time, but tides have been consistently over performing,
possibly due to some slightly slowing of the Gulf Stream
offshore during the period of strong counter flow conditions
experienced several days ago. So, the forecast for the next few
mornings remain slightly above the P-ETSS 10% given recent
trends. Right now, tides are expected to remain minor flood
thresholds at Fort Pulaski. Fort Pulaski did reach minor flood
levels with this morning`s high tide (09/28), but a timely
passing ship was likely what pushed the gage just past 9.5 ft
MLLW.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Warm and dry conditions will extend through most
of the week.

A departing trough will make way for an upper ridge axis
shifting toward the Southeastern U.S. This will result in a
relatively stable, rain-free pattern. High temperatures will
climb into the mid to upper 80s daily, roughly 5 degrees above
normal for late Sept/early Oct, with parts of Southeast Georgia
reaching the lower 90s. Expect ideal radiational cooling tonight
under clear skies and light winds, bringing lows down into the
upper 50s inland and mid 60s closer to the coast. Lows will
gradually warm each night after, hovering in the mid to upper
60s inland and low to mid 70s near the beaches.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Unsettled weather could return late week, and
possibly persisting through the weekend.

The next decent chance of rain will be Friday as a cold front
approaches. Rain chances will further increase this weekend as
the front potentially stalls nearby and deep, tropical
influenced moisture from the Gulf is ushered in. PWATs could
jump to an impressive 2.25 inches (near daily record levels) or
higher across the area. This event is still several days away so
details are limited, but this could set the stage for heavy
downpours and a heightened risk of flooding.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV
through 18z Tuesday. Shallow ground fog is possible around
sunrise Tuesday, but no significant visibility reductions are
anticipated.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Saturday: Quiet marine conditions will prevail across
the local waters through the rest of the week and into the
weekend. Winds and seas will remain well below Small Craft
Advisory thresholds across all marine zones. Winds will surge a
bit each afternoon and evening, but speeds should mostly top out
in the 10-15 knot range and will be strongest along the
land/sea interface.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$