148
FXUS62 KCHS 041816
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
116 PM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated Key Messages and Aviation Section.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Unseasonably warm temperatures expected through the late
  week, with scattered showers and a thunderstorm, or two
  possible on Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Unseasonably warm temperatures expected through
the late week, with scattered showers and a thunderstorm, or two
possible on Friday.

As a weak cold front continues to track towards the
southeastern CONUS, mid-level heights will continue to fall as
the front approaches. This front will eventually push offshore
on late Friday night. The chances for rain continue to look
rather unimpressive as the best forcing remains to the north of
the region. There`s a chance for the interior counties to
witness some isolated showers later this evening and again on
Thursday, but most of the region will remain dry. The best
chance for some rainfall will be on Friday as the models hint at
a weakening band of precipitation moving through the region as
the cold front tracks towards the coastline. It`s possible to
see a couple of isolated thunderstorms as this passes through,
however severe weather does not seem to be in the cards on
Friday as instability remains rather weak. Following the passage
of the cold front, drier air will return into the region with a
rain-free forecast in place through early next week.

On another note, temperatures will continue to be unseasonably
warm tomorrow and Friday before the cold front passes through
the region. Similar to today, afternoon temperatures will reach
into the low to mid 80s over the next couple days. These values
are around 10 degrees above early November normals and are
within a few degrees of records (see climate section below).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
04/18Z TAFs:
Expect VFR conditions to continue into the overnight. As weak
seabreeze passed through the region this morning, southeasterly
flow has become rather breezy over the last couple hours, and
gusts up to 20-22 kts have been mentioned at each terminal site
between 18-21/22Z. Model guidance continues to display a
scattered to broken cloud deck through the overnight, before
becoming overcast as another round of fog and/or low ceilings
develop across the terminals ~10/11Z. Therefore, a mention of BR
has been added around this time at all terminal sites.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers, and
possibly a couple isolated thunderstorms, could impact the area
tomorrow evening and again on Friday. Any flight restrictions
should be brief.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight: Southeasterly flow should generally remain
between 10 to 15 kts across the waters through the overnight.
Seas will range from 3 to 5 ft, before decreasing to 3 to 4 ft
tonight. Therefore, conditions will remain quite tranquil for
mariners through the forecast period.

Thursday through Monday: As a weak cold front approaches the
waters, conditions will remain below Small Craft Advisory
conditions through the period. The front will eventually pass
offshore on Friday night and no significant wind surge is
expected behind it. Expect wind speeds to generally top out ~15
kts with seas peaking 3 to 5 ft.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures:

November 4:
KSAV: 85/2012

November 5:
KCXM: 81/1992
KSAV: 85/2003

November 6:
KCXM: 81/2003

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

November 4:
KCHS: 67/2015
KCXM: 69/1992
KSAV: 71/2003

November 5:
KCHS: 69/2003
KCXM: 71/2024
KSAV: 70/2003

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Dennis