689
FXUS62 KCHS 291123
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
723 AM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Aviation Section was updated for the 12Z TAF issuance.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) The coastal flood risk will linger this week.

- 2) Warm and dry conditions will extend through most of the
  week.

- 3) Unsettled weather could return late week, and possibly
  persisting through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: The coastal flood risk will linger this week.

The risk for minor to near moderate coastal flooding will
continue through most of this week, mainly impacting the
coastal portions of Charleston and Colleton Counties. Coastal
flooding will be near moderate levels both Tuesday and Wednesday
mornings with minor flooding Thursday and possibly Friday
mornings.

Today: While guidance guidance supports minor flooding with this
morning`s high tide around 10 AM tides have been consistently
over performing. There are a few possibilities for the over-
performance of the recent tides such as a slowing of the gulf
stream or the build up of tidal waters across inland waterways
due to the extended period of coastal flooding. The tide
forecast has been updated to a value of 7.4 ft MLLW, which would
be a 0.8 ft departure. Given the most recent high tide was still
a departure of 0.9 ft, this value is achievable. A Coastal Flood
Advisory has been issued for Charleston and Coastal Colleton
Counties.


KEY MESSAGE 2: Warm and dry conditions will extend through most
of the week.

Ridging aloft will build into the southeastern states, yielding
a rain-free pattern through most of the week. High temperatures
will climb into the mid to upper 80s daily, roughly 5 degrees
above normal for late Sept/early Oct, with parts of Southeast
Georgia reaching the lower 90s. Lows will gradually warm each
night, hovering in the mid to upper 60s inland and low to mid
70s near the beaches.


KEY MESSAGE 3: Unsettled weather could return late week, and
possibly persisting through the weekend.

Upper ridge will start to weaken late week into the weekend as a
broad trough shifts to the Northeast. At the surface, a cold front
will approach the region and possibly stall nearby, before a
stronger shortwave eventually pushes the front through early next
week. Deep moisture will overspread the area with ensembles
indicating PWats exceeding 2 inches (90-95th percentile of climo).
This pattern will support increasing rain chances with showers and
thunderstorms possible each day. Some uncertainties remain with the
evolution of this system, but it currently looks like the latter
half of the weekend could be the most active.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through 12Z Wednesday at
CHS/JZI/SAV terminals. Any lingering MIFG will quickly dissipate
with sunrise. Fog is possible again tonight/early Wednesday
morning, however confidence was too low to include mention at
this time.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Quiet marine conditions will prevail across the local waters through
the rest of the week and into the weekend. Winds and seas will
remain well below Small Craft Advisory thresholds across all marine
zones. Winds will surge a bit each afternoon and evening, but speeds
should mostly top out in the 10-15 knot range and will be strongest
along the land/sea interface. Next time period of concern looks to
be Monday into the middle of next week following a cold front.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT today for SCZ149-150.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

CPM/ETM