093
FXUS62 KCHS 132326
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
726 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Atlantic high pressure will build across the Southeast U.S.
through the weekend into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Through Sunset: Radar continues to indicate convection persisting
across our area, especially along and near the inland moving
sea breeze. SPC Mesoscale Analysis still indicates minimal bulk
shear, and effective shear below 20 kt. DCAPE values are
generally less than 600 J/kg, while MLCAPE is in the
2,000-2,500 J/kg range. The overall severe threat is low. But
we could still have a strong to marginally severe storm where
boundary interactions can work to enhance updrafts. Storms are
moving at a decent speed, which is limiting rainfall. But expect a
brief heavy downpour. Any minor flooding should remain limited
to the low-lying and poorly drained areas, or locations where
there is some storm training.

Tonight: The mid-levels will consist of us being on the western
periphery of sub-tropical ridging. At the surface, High pressure
will remain over the western Atlantic, with it`s periphery
extending into our area. Any remaining convection should
dissipate after sunset, followed by a mainly dry overnight for
most areas. Though, we can`t rule out a lone shower or two
closer to the coast. Lows will remain mild, mainly in the low
to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
The synoptic pattern will favor a somewhat elevated risk for
showers/tstms through Monday with the region pinned between
subtropical high pressure centered offshore of the Southeast
U.S. and a mid-level weakness near the lower Mississippi Valley.
Scattered to numerous showers/tstms will be at their greatest
coverage and intensity during the afternoon and early evening
hours with a potential for some activity to linger into the
overnights given the warm and humid airmass that is in place.
Moderate to locally strong instability will support a risk for a
few strong to marginally severe tstms each afternoon with
damaging winds, small hail, locally heavy rainfall and frequent
cloud-to-ground lightning being the primary hazards. The risk
for an isolated severe tstm will be highest where updrafts can
become locally enhanced near mesoscale boundary collisions.
Highs will warm into the 90s each afternoon with early morning
lows cooling in the 70s. It will certainly be hot and humid with
afternoon heat indices peaking 100-107, which is below the 108
criteria for a Heat Advisory.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The subtropical ridge off the Southeast U.S. coast will build
west and intensify through much of next week as a hot and humid
airmass remains in place. The ridge could limit the convective
coverage for much of the period, although it remains to be seen
this far out if the capping inversion noted on some guidance
will be sufficient to completely curtail convection. Pops were
held closely to the 13/13z NBM (mainly chance category) until
confidence on how the building ridge will impact the daily
thermodynamic profile increases. Afternoon highs will warm into
the lower-mid 90s each afternoon with overnight lows only
cooling into the 70s. Localized heat indices could get close to
the 108 Heat Advisory thresholds at times, so Heat Advisories
could be needed at some point if advisory conditions become a
bit more widespread.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
00Z TAFs: While the sea breeze has cleared most the region,
still have a bit of lingering convection out there. Should see
this diminish quickly near/after sunset, with winds becoming
fairly light throughout the overnight period. Otherwise, look
for another round of showers and storms to be possible late
tomorrow morning through afternoon. Brief reductions in
cigs/vsbys may occur under any storm.

Extended Aviation Forecast: Brief restrictions are possible
each afternoon and evening with typical summertime thunderstorms
into early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: Atlantic High pressure will yield SSE winds this
evening, veering to the SSW overnight. Sustained winds should be
10-15 kt. Though, there could be higher gusts along the
land/sea interface, especially if nocturnal jetting sets up.
Seas should average 2-3 ft within 20 nm and 3-4 ft for the GA
waters beyond 20 nm.

Saturday through Wednesday: Typical summertime conditions will
prevail over the waters with high pressure centered just
offshore of the Southeast States. A broad, southerly wind regime
can be expected with winds generally averaging 15 kt or less,
except a bit higher along the land/sea interface and Charleston
Harbor each afternoon with the sea breeze. Seas will remain 4 ft
or less through the period.

Rip Currents: An easterly swell surge will arrive along the
Charleston County beaches Saturday and all remaining beaches for
Sunday. This coupled with locally breezy conditions near the
afternoon sea breeze will support a moderate rip current risk
for the Charleston County beaches Saturday and for all beaches
Sunday.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SST
MARINE...