500
FXUS62 KCHS 170607
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
207 AM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Atlantic high pressure will prevail through the weekend. A cold
front may sag into the area early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Today: Aloft, the ridge centered across the western Atlantic
will stretch further back to the west and extend inland across
GA and the Carolinas, all the way to the Southern Plains. At the
surface, a classic summertime setup with the subtropical high
solidly in control driving generally southerly flow across the
area. Model consensus is good, favoring very little diurnal
convection across the area. Soundings feature very warm
profiles, weak lapse rates, and MLCAPE values struggling to
reach 1,000 J/kg. All this, with the influence of the ridge
aloft should result is very little coverage this afternoon.
There are some DCAPE values of 1,000 J/kg or higher, so if a
storm can get going there could be a gusty wind threat. But
overall, the expectation is for nothing more than isolated
coverage likely not until the mid to late afternoon. Another
consequence of the ridge aloft will be warming temperatures.
Highs are expected to reach the low to mid 90s for the area away
from the immediate coast. These temperatures combined with
dewpoints in the low to mid 70s should yield heat index values
mostly in the 100-105 degree range.

Tonight: If there are any showers or storms lingering from the
afternoon, they will dissipate quickly with the loss of diurnal
heating. The rest of the overnight should be quiet with lows in
the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A deep layered ridge will prevail through the weekend,
maintaining fairly typical conditions for summer in the South.
Temperatures will slowly climb through the period, with highs
reaching the mid to upper 90s in most areas away from the coast
on Sunday. Heat indices could top 108 degrees in parts of the
area Saturday and Sunday, so we may end up needing Heat
Advisories. Fairly strong mid-level subsidence will limit the
convection potential so we are carrying 20-30% PoPs.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A more active pattern is on tap for early to mid next week as
the upper ridge axis shifts west and a series of shortwaves
rotates into the area from the north. Additionally, a weak
surface front is progged to sag into the area Monday afternoon,
then linger in the area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The 06z TAF period begins with VFR conditions at KCHS, KJZI,
and KSAV. There are no significant concerns for fog or stratus
through sunrise, though KJZI has reported some SCT to BKN
cumulus around 2 kft. Current thinking is that this will be
mostly SCT and not cause any flight restrictions. Very little
thunderstorm activity is expected this afternoon so we have no
mention of anything at the terminals. Southerly flow will become
breezy this afternoon, with gusts into the 15-20 knot range
possible.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR will mainly prevail throughout
the period, however brief flight restrictions are possible
within showers and thunderstorms that develop in the afternoon
and/or evening hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Today and tonight: The subtropical high will be the primary
feature through the period and will continue to drive elevated
south to southwest flow. Wind speeds will top out in the 15-20
knot range at times, especially along the land/sea interface
this afternoon and through the evening. Seas should average
around 3 feet through the period. Isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms could impact portions of the waters early this
morning, but for the most part conditions should be quiet.

Typical summertime weather pattern with moderate southerly flow
will prevail Friday through Monday. Headlines not expected.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...BSH/JRL
MARINE...BSH/JRL