006
FXUS62 KCHS 070639
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
239 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will persist into Wednesday. A cold front will
drop south through the area Wednesday night into Thursday with
inland high pressure prevailing into early next week. Low
pressure could develop off the Southeast U.S. coast this
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Prior to Daybreak: Weak coastal troughing lingering off the coast is
anticipated to shift onshore post daybreak, bringing a few
light/moderate showers across the coastal corridor prior to its
arrival. Some lower stratus could accompany this activity along with
brief visibility reductions, but overall restrictions and shower
activity appears to be less than observed during the past few
mornings.

Today: Aloft, mid-upper lvl ridging will become stretched across the
Mid-Altlantic and Southeast United States, while at the sfc a weak,
but persistent coastal trough begins to shift onshore along the
southern periphery of high pressure extending across the Mid-
Atlantic States and the interior Carolinas. Much like the previous
morning, coastal showers will be driven onshore within a easterly
wind, producing light to moderate rains across the South Carolina
and Georgia coastal corridor into late morning before activity
becomes more focused across Southeast Georgia and shifts inland as
the coastal trough presses westward and weakens/dissipates across
land early afternoon. Showers could produce a brief downpour capable
of around 1/2 to 3/4 inch rainfall accumulation, but these instances
are likely to be quite sparsely located along coastal Georgia and
inland along the Savannah River area. A large portion of the
afternoon will see partly cloudy to mostly sunny conditions as
convection weakens or departs inland as well as light northeasterly
winds veering more easterly in wake of the trough, with wind speeds
topping out in the 10-15 mph during peak diurnal heating hours. The
pattern/trends favor high temps in the low-mid 80s away from the
beaches.

Tonight: The mid-upper lvl ridge will persist across the Southeast
while weak sfc high pressure gradually spreads into the local area
from the western Atlantic. Dry conditions are expected under mostly
clear skies for much of the night, and with the coastal trough no
longer offshore, shower activity is not anticipated late. Winds
should decouple shortly afternoon sunset, becoming light/variable
for much of the night. There are some signals for fog late night
with favorable condensation pressure deficits in place and lingering
low-lvl moisture, particularly for locations that experienced a
shower during the day. Patchy fog has been introduced across
Southeast South Carolina and Southeast Georgia away from the coast
within a few hours of daybreak late. Overnight lows should dip a
degree or two cooler than the previous night, generally ranging in
the mid 60s inland to upper 60s/lower 70s near the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Wednesday: A potent shortwave trough will pass to the north of the
region, along the southern periphery of larger scale troughing aloft
over New England. A cold front will approach the region from the
west, associated with the passing shortwave aloft. Decent moisture
ahead of the front combined with the forcing aloft will yield
showers and maybe a thunderstorm in the afternoon through the
evening hours. Temperatures will reach into the mid to upper 80s
across the region, dropping into the 60s overnight.

Thursday and Friday: After FROPA at the surface Thursday, high
pressure will build into the region, centered over New England.
Aloft the region will remain along the southern periphery of large
scale troughing over the eastern CONUS. Due to the building high
pressure at the surface, temperatures will only reach into the low
70s across SE SC and mid 70s in SE GA on Thursday and Friday.
Additionally, low temperatures will drop into the mid 50s inland and
low 60s along the coastline. A mostly dry forecast has been
maintained, however a slight chance of showers is possible along the
coastline Friday afternoon. Gusty NE winds will be present across
the region as the high pressure builds in, especially along the
beaches.

Lake Winds: Winds on Lake Moultrie will become elevated early
Thursday morning and into the weekend as a strong, pinched gradient
develops in response to building high pressure across the region.
Winds could approach Lake Wind Advisory level criteria (sustained 20
kt or frequent gusts to 25 kt) during this time and a Lake Wind
Advisory may be required.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Generally the weekend and into early next week will be dominated by
high pressure at the surface. A low pressure system could develop
off the SE coastline this weekend, however the strength and track of
that system is still unknown. A dry forecast has been maintained,
with dry high pressure holding strong. Gusty NE winds will begin to
diminish through the weekend across the region as the center of high
pressure over New England weakens. Temperatures through the period
will slowly warm, although highs will remaining a couple of degrees
below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Coastal shower coverage is less than the previous couple nights,
suggesting the potential for MVFR/IFR conditions to be lower at
CHS/JZI/SAV terminals through 12Z Tuesday. However, recent radar
imagery suggests a few showers to impact the coastal corridor,
reaching the JZI/SAV terminals with TEMPO MVFR conditions between
the 08-12Z Tuesday time frame. The risk for additional flight
restrictions is possible with late morning showers at all terminals,
but confidence in timing/arrival is too low to include in the 06Z
TAF issuance. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to prevail at all
terminals from 18Z Tuesday through 06Z Wednesday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Gusty N to NE winds will impact
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV Thursday and Friday, possibly lingering into the
weekend as high pressure builds over the region.

&&

.MARINE...
Early Morning: Recent buoy observations indicate sea conditions
improving across nearshore waters, but still supporting seas near
the 6 ft mark out 20 NM from the coast. For this reason, Small Craft
Advisories are in place until 8 AM for all nearshore SC/GA waters.

Today and Tonight: Easterly winds in the 10-15 kt range will prevail
across all waters late morning through the evening while weak
coastal troughing shifts onshore during the day. During the night,
the pressure gradient is anticipated to weaken as high pressure
settles across local waters, indicating winds to improve even more
so after midnight. The main issue will continue to be seas with
Small Craft Advisories starting out across all waters outside the
Charleston Harbor, but quickly coming to an end across nearshore
waters shortly after daybreak. Further offshore, 5-7 ft seas across
outer Georgia waters will support a Small Craft Advisory for the day
and night.

Wednesday through Sunday: High pressure well offshore will dominate
on Wednesday, yielding NE winds generally 10 to 15 knots and seas
averaging 3 to 4 ft. A cold front will sweep through the region
Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing deteriorating marine
conditions. NE winds will increase to 20 to 25 knots on Thursday,
with gusts to around 30 knots. Seas will also increase Thursday to 5
to 7 ft. The marine zones will become pinched through the weekend
between high pressure inland and a developing low pressure system
off the SE coast. This will yield persistent NE winds around 25
knots with gusts as high as 35 knots. Gale Watches and Warnings may
be required later this week for all waters outside of the Charleston
Harbor. Within the Charleston Harbor winds are forecast to be
slightly lower, however still within Small Craft Advisory criteria.
These conditions will continue through Saturday, diminishing
slightly on Sunday.

Rip Currents: The risk for rip currents will be highest along
the Georgia beaches today while a moderate risk occurs along
South Carolina beaches. A blend of the latest rip current MOS
with local rip current calculations support a moderate risk of
rip currents at all area beaches on Wednesday. An enhanced risk
of rip currents will persist into the weekend due to building
surf and increasing winds associated with the building high
pressure.

High Surf: The risk for high surf will increase Thursday night into
the start of the weekend as wave heights increase across the local
waters. A High Surf Advisory may be required for some area
beaches

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Latest tide observations and guidance support moderate coastal
flooding for Charleston and Coastal Colleton Counties and minor
coastal flooding from Beaufort, SC and south across Southeast
Georgia coastal communities during the morning high tide cycle. A
Coastal Flood Advisory is effect from 6 AM to 10 AM this morning.
High tide today is at 8:23 AM at Charleston Harbor, SC and 8:33 AM
at Fort Pulaski, GA. Additional coastal flooding is possible with
the evening high tide cycle and could necessitate another Coastal
Flood Advisory for Charleston and Coastal Colleton Counties.

Astronomical tides will continue to increase this week due to the
full moon today (Oct 7) and perigee (Oct 8). Additionally, tidal
departure values will begin to increase again late week and into the
weekend due to strong NE winds. As a result, the threat for minor to
moderate coastal flooding continues through mid-week. Late week the
threat for major coastal flooding arrives for the late morning high
tides.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for GAZ117-119-139-
     141.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM to 10 AM EDT this morning for
     GAZ117-119-139-141.
SC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM to 10 AM EDT this morning for
     SCZ048>051.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for AMZ350-
     352-354.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...CPM
LONG TERM...CPM
AVIATION...CPM/DPB
MARINE...CPM/DPB