820
FXUS62 KCHS 140710
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
310 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Atlantic high pressure will build across the Southeast U.S.
through the weekend into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Today: The region will remain between deep layer ridging to the
southeast and broad mid/upper level troughing to the west.
Ample moisture, CAPE values of 1000-2000 J/Kg, and weak upper
level short waves are expected to again produce scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms, mainly centered around peak
afternoon heating. The potential for severe storms is again too
low to mention. However, can never rule out an isolated strong
to low end severe storm this time of year, especially if
outflow boundaries collide with each other or with the late
afternoon seabreeze. With PWs of 2+ inches, along with the
potential for some training of storms, locally heavy rainfall
will be possible again today, especially closer to the coast
from roughly Beaufort, SC to south of Savannah, GA. High
temperatures near to slightly above normal in the upper 80s to
lower 90s.

Tonight: Convection should reduce in coverage after sunset, but
still could see isolated showers hanging around through the
night. Lows in the lower to mid 70s inland, and the mid to upper
70s closer to the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms continue as the surface
Atlantic high pressure remains off to our east, and an upper level
high is parked off to our south-southeast. While this won`t lead to
constant rain, highest probabilities and spatial coverage for rain
are expected through the late morning and into the afternoon hours
as instability builds, with chances decreasing into the overnight
hours as instability wanes. While severe weather can`t be entirely
ruled out given 1-2 J of MUCAPE, the lack of strong forcing and
weak mid-upper level flow will keep such activity isolated at
best. This is further validated by various AI/ML models, as well
as the SPC keeping chances for severe weather below 5%. With
precipitable water remaining above 1.75", locally heavy rainfall
can`t be ruled out.

As for temperatures, they are expected to slowly increase into the
beginning of the week given the persistent pattern underneath the
aforementioned upper level high. Both the NAEFs and ECMWF ensemble
situational awareness tables (ESATs) continue to show the region
remaining near/above the 90th percentile of climatology with respect
to geopotential heights from 850mb up to 200 mb per the NAEFS and
ECMWF, resulting in afternoon highs on Sunday in the upper 80s to
lower 90s and lower to mid 90s on Monday and Tuesday, while those
near the coast remain in the mid/upper 80s. Heat index values in the
mid 90s to lower 100s are also expected, possibly as high as mid
100s on Monday and Tuesday if dewpoints rise into the upper 70s.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The aforementioned pattern continues while the upper level ridge
begins to slowly build westward as a weak trough moves into the
northeast Thursday into Friday. Daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms continue, with temperatures remaining in the lower to
mid 90s. Currently have heat indices largely remaining below Heat
Advisory criteria of 108 degrees F, but that will need to be
closely monitored.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
06Z TAFs: Expect VFR conditions all sites through this morning.
By afternoon, scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms will
bring the chance for MVFR CIGS. Guidance indicating winds could
gust to around 20 knots from late morning into mid afternoon.
Convection is expected to decrease in coverage after sunset this
evening, with generally VFR conditions.

Extended Aviation Forecast: Brief flight restrictions are possible
in showers and thunderstorms each day, mainly in the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Today through Tonight:No highlights are expected for this
period. Deep layer high pressure will remain southeast of the
waters with deep layer troughing well inland/west of the waters.
This will keep south-southwest winds of 10-15 knots in place,
gusting to near 20 knots during the afternoon as the seabreeze
develops, but likely stays close to the coast. Seas generally
2-3 feet within 10 nm of the coast, and 3 to 4 feet beyond 10
nm.

Sunday through Thursday: Typical summertime conditions will prevail
over the waters with high pressure centered offshore of the
Southeast States. A broad, southerly wind regime can be expected
with winds generally averaging 15 kt or less, except a bit higher
along the land/sea interface and Charleston Harbor each afternoon
with the sea breeze. Seas will remain 4 ft or less through the
period.

Rip Currents: An easterly swell surge will arrive along the
Charleston County beaches today and all remaining beaches for
Sunday. This coupled with locally breezy conditions near the
afternoon sea breeze will support a moderate rip current risk for
the Charleston County beaches Saturday and for all beaches
Sunday.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RFM
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...RFM
MARINE...