288
FXUS62 KCHS 151751
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
151 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Atlantic high pressure will continue to build across the
Southeast through the week. A cold front could move through
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Through This Evening: Weak subsidence left in the wake of a
vortmax that propagated into North Carolina earlier today
persists. Despite MLCAPE running 1500-2000 J/kg within a warm
and moist airmass, convection that has initiated so far has
struggled a bit with weak updrafts noted. There should be some
intensification and growth to the convection that occurs over
the next few hours as the subsidence aloft weakens and mixed-
layer instability builds. There are still signals that
convection could concentrate in the Reidsville-Walterboro
corridor as well as in the counties bordering the Altamaha
River coincident with a ribbon of higher 850 hPa theat-e. The
resultant sea breeze may also come into play late, especially
along the I-95 corridor. A few strong to marginally severe tstms
could occur into early this evening. The primary hazards will
be gusty winds, locally heavy rainfall resulting in minor
flooding of low-lying and poor drainage areas, and frequent
cloud-to-ground lightning.

Overnight: Convection should end by mid/late evening with dry
conditions dominating overnight. Debris clouds should thin with
time once convection dissipates. Lows will range from the
lower-mid 70s inland to around 80 at the beaches and Downtown
Charleston.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A deep layered ridge will expand from the western Atlantic into
the Southeast United States early next week, bringing a pretty
typical summertime pattern to the area. High temps will increase
a degree or two each day with values in the low to mid 90s.
Dewpoints solidly in the 70s will combine to produce 100-105F
heat indices each day. Increasing mid-level subsidence should
limit diurnal convective coverage, though with 1500-2000 J/kg
CAPEs each day, isolated to scattered coverage expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The deep layered ridge will persist through late week, though a
cold front could sag into the area or pass through on Friday,
bringing a slight increase in shower and thunderstorm coverage.
Highs each day will be in the low to mid 90s with heat indices
topping out 100-105F.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
15/18z Aviation Discussion:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR will prevail for much of the period.
Scattered showers/tstms are expected again this afternoon, but
current data suggest the bulk of the activity will remain just
west of all terminals. It could get close to KSAV and possibly
KCHS later in the afternoon. VCTS was highlighted to reflect
this. Convection will wane this evening.

Extended Aviation Forecast: Brief flight restrictions are
possible in showers and thunderstorms each day, mainly in the
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: A typical southwest flow regime will prevail tonight
with high pressure centered offshore. Speeds will average 10-15
kt with seas 2-4 ft.

Monday through Friday: A decent SW gradient will exist along
the coast Monday through Friday with a robust afternoon sea
breeze each day. Wind gusts in Charleston Harbor could top 20 kt
for a few hours each afternoon. We could be close to Small
Craft Advisory criteria Tuesday afternoon.

Rip Currents: A moderate risk for rip currents remains in place
through Monday for a 9 second swell impacting the beaches.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$