417
FXUS62 KCHS 041003
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
503 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated key message 1.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Patchy dense fog this morning.

- 2) Unseasonably warm temperatures expected through late week,
  with scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two
  possible on Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Patchy dense fog this morning.

Early this morning, IR nighttime microphysics RGB indicated an
expanding area of stratus across portions of SE GA and the SC
Lowcountry. Based on web cams and sfc based observations,
patchy dense fog has developed across portions of the SC
Lowcountry, highlighted with a Special Weather Statement until 7
AM. Near-term guidance has struggled with the timing, placement,
and density of the fog this morning. We will continue to
monitor the fog, if the coverage of dense fog increases, then a
Dense Fog Advisory could be needed.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Unseasonably warm temperatures expected through late
week, with scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two
possible on Friday.

Mid level heights will lower late week as a larger scale trough
shifts into the eastern U.S. At the surface, a weak front will
slowly move towards the region, eventually getting pushed offshore
later Friday or Friday night. Rain potential looks rather
unimpressive. Despite increasing moisture, the best forcing passes
to the north. Thursday could see an isolated shower, but most of the
area will be dry. A bit higher coverage is expected on Friday with a
weakening band of precip likely moving into the area during the day.
Significant rainfall is not expected. Probabilities for rainfall
greater than 0.25" are generally less than 20%, except slightly
higher over interior South Carolina. Weak instability could support
an isolated thunderstorm or two, but severe weather is not
anticipated. Drier air returns following fropa, with a rain-free
forecast in place for the weekend and early next week.

Outside of rain chances, the other forecast item of note is the
unseasonably warm temperatures. Highs today through Friday are
mostly in the low to mid 80s. These values are around 10 degrees
above early November normals and are within a few degrees of records
(see climate section below).

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Prior to the 6Z TAFs, IR nighttime microphysics RGB indicated an
expanding area of stratus across portions of SE GA as a band of mid
and high clouds drifts north. Based on satellite trends, LIFR
ceilings is expected to develop over KSAV by 7Z. The stratus may
build down through the rest of the night, possibly leading to
periods of MVFR fog and LIFR ceilings between 8-12Z, highlighted
with a TEMPO. Lingering high clouds should limit the formation of
restrictive stratus over KCHS and KJZI, but we will continue to
monitor. However, as winds become light during the pre-dawn hours
this morning, patchy fog or ground fog may develop over KCHS between
10-12Z, highlighted with a TEMPO. By mid-morning, a weak sea breeze
should begin to push inland, resulting in winds to turn from the
southeast and increasing to 10 to 15 kts at KJZI, KCHS, and
KSAV.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers, and
possibly a thunderstorm or two, could impact the area Thursday
and Friday. Any flight restrictions should be brief.

&&

.MARINE...
Today through Tonight: The forecast pattern will support southeast
winds generally between 10 to 15 kts across the marine zones. Seas
will begin the day between 3 to 5 ft, decreasing to 3 to 4 ft
tonight. All Small Craft Advisories have been removed from the
forecast area.

Thursday through Monday: Conditions are expected to remain below
Small Craft Advisory levels late week through the weekend. A cold
front will approach the region and eventually push offshore Friday
night. No significant wind surge is expected behind it. Speeds will
generally top out at 15 knots with seas peaking 3-5 feet.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

November 4:
KSAV: 85/2012

November 5:
KCHS: 87/2003
KCXM: 81/1992
KSAV: 85/2003

November 6:
KCXM: 81/2003


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

November 4:
KCHS: 67/2015
KCXM: 69/1992
KSAV: 71/2003

November 5:
KCHS: 69/2003

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

ETM/NED