950
FXUS62 KCHS 032333
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
633 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation section has been updated to reflect 00z aviation
forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Patchy fog possible tonight into early Wednesday morning,
  mainly across locations west of I-95.

- 2) Scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two will
  be possible Thursday and Friday as a front approaches and
  moves through the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Patchy fog possible tonight into early Wednesday
morning, mainly across locations west of I-95.

High pressure will maintain its hold over the local forecast
area through tonight and into Wednesday morning. Dew points this
afternoon are generally in the upper 60s to around 70 across the
region. Cross over temperatures will likely be able to be
reached overnight tonight across inland locations as low
temperatures drop into the low 60s. The 12Z REFS shows
probabilities of <0.5 mi visibilities in the 30-40% range west
of I-95. A Dense Fog Advisory may be required for portions of
the forecast area.


KEY MESSAGE 2: Scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two
will be possible Thursday and Friday as a front approaches and moves
through the region.

Aloft, ridging in place on Wednesday will get pushed off the coast
as an upper low moves into the Great Lakes region. A trough will
then shift through the Upper Midwest and mid MS Valley into Friday,
pushing a front towards the forecast area. For Thursday, model
consensus is that the bulk of the forcing and low level convergence
will remain displaced inland, likely keeping most of the forecast
area dry. So any showers and thunderstorms will be mainly a concern
for the interior of the forecast area and likely even moreso still
further inland than that. It will be quite warm, with low to mid
80s, and this could result in enough surface-based instability to
produce a few thunderstorms. Still, we anticipate most of the area
(if not all) to remain dry).

For Friday, the forecast area will be in an area of cyclonic flow
aloft on the far southern periphery of an upper low across the Great
Lakes. The best shortwave energy rotating around the upper low will
pass by to the north and northwest of the forecast area. The surface
front should start getting into the area in the morning, pushing
offshore into the evening and early morning hours. The front should
bring a broken band of mostly scattered coverage of showers with a
thunderstorm or two possible.

Overall, the lack of notable forcing and coverage will keep the
rainfall potential on the low end. In fact, most probabilistic
guidance keeps the chances of 0.25" or more of rainfall at less than
20% for most of the forecast area. Also, while a few thunderstorms
will be possible, the strong/severe risk is very low.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions prevail at KCHS and KJZI with MVFR ceilings at
KSAV. VFR conditions should return over the next couple of
hours across the entire area. Fog is expected to develop after
midnight and closer to daybreak (10-12Z) mainly across the I-95
corridor. Fog coverage is expected to be lower along the
closer to the coast. LIFR to IFR conditions will be expected
where fog does develop with IFR to MVFR vsbys at the three
terminals before returning to VFR conditions tomorrow. Winds
will remain light out of the east becoming more southeasterly
tomorrow.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers, and
possibly a thunderstorm or two, could impact the area Thursday
and Friday. Any resulting flight restrictions are expected to be
brief.

&&

.MARINE...
Rest of Today through Tonight: Surface high pressure will
continue to dominate over the marine waters, yielding NE winds
between 15 to 20 knots. Seas will generally be 3 to 5 ft across
the nearshore waters, with 4 to 6 ft in the 20 to 60 nm
offshore GA waters where a Small Craft Advisory remains in place
through Wednesday morning.

Wednesday through Sunday: Conditions across the local water will
continue to improve Wednesday as the gradient relaxes and allow for
onshore easterly flow no more than 10-15 knots. Light southeasterly
to southerly flow is expected Thursday before turning southwesterly
ahead of an approaching front. The front will pass to the east
Friday night, though there a significant surge is not expected in
its wake. Seas will steadily improve as well. Seas up to around 5
feet will continue in the outer GA waters on Wednesday, with 2-4
feet expected for the most part across all waters through the
weekend.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ384.

&&

$$

Black/BSH/CPM