702
FXUS62 KCHS 011456
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1056 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend across the area through late week. A
cold front will approach from the northwest late in the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Late this morning: No change to the forecast thinking for today.
Very quiet conditions will prevail with plenty of dry air and
below normal temperatures. The 12z KCHS RAOB came in with a
precipitable water value of 0.80" which should be a new observed
minimum for 01/12z according to the SPC sounding climatology.
High pressure will continue to ridge down the east side of the
Appalachians with an elongated trough situated well offshore.
This will drive elevated NNE to NE flow through the day,
strongest through the early to mid afternoon hours. This flow
pattern will keep seasonally dry air across the area and keep
the forecast dry. Highs will top out mostly in the low 80s with
a few mid 80s possible in southeast GA south of I_16. Such
values will be on the order of 5 degrees below normal. Breezy
conditions will impact much of the area, especially along the
coast where gusts into the 20-25 mph range can be expected.

Tonight: Very little change will occur in the overall pattern
with high pressure persisting locally. Expect all areas to
remain dry through the night. Light northeasterly winds under
mostly clear skies should support overnight lows generally in
the low-mid 60s inland to upper 60s/lower 70s near the coast
(warmest along the beaches).

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Surface high pressure to the north will gradually weaken
Tuesday through Thursday. Relatively dry PWs will persist inland
Tuesday and Wednesday before things start to moisten back up on
Thursday. Temps will return to near normal by Thursday. Little
in the way of convection is expected Tuesday and Wednesday with
isolated showers/tstms confined to coastal areas. Greater
moisture and some upper shortwave energy may allow for scattered
diurnal convection on Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Atlantic high pressure will rebuild Friday and Saturday, then a
cold front could move through Sunday morning. Above normal
temperatures expected Friday and Saturday though there will be
little forcing for convection. A few showers or tstms will be
possible Sunday as the front drops into the area.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals
through 12Z Tuesday. North/northeast wind gusts around 20 kt
are likely at all terminals starting mid morning and should
persist into late afternoon.

Extended Aviation Forecast: Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Today and Tonight: The pressure gradient will remain enhanced
across local waters between strengthening high pressure inland
and low pressure offshore. The pattern will continue to support
Small Craft Advisory level conditions across all waters outside
the Charleston Harbor through this evening, before the pressure
gradient begins to show signs of relaxing during the second half
of the night. North/northeasterly winds gusting up to 25-30 kt
will be common for a good portion of the day off the coast, but
then will weaken late day and generally range between 15-20 kt
during the night. Seas will be slower to respond once winds
weaken, but will generally range in the 5-8 ft range this
morning through the afternoon (largest across outer Georgia
waters), before subsiding to 3-5 ft across nearshore waters and
4-6 ft across outer Georgia waters overnight. For this reason,
Small Craft Advisories should eventually come down across
nearshore waters around midnight tonight, then near daybreak
across outer Georgia waters.

NE flow will continue through Thursday as surface high pressure
remains to the north, however the gradient and thus wind speeds
should remain below advisory thresholds. The flow turns
southerly late week into the weekend.

Rip Currents: Moderate swell, enhanced onshore flow, and above
average tidal range will result in a high risk for rip currents
today and a moderate risk on Tuesday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Persistent NE flow will maintain positive tidal anomalies of
+1.0 to +1.4 ft through at least Wednesday. These could push
tide levels at Charleston within a few tenths of a foot of minor
flood stage during the afternoon high tides. A slight increase
in the anomalies may result in flooding.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ117-
     119-139-141.
SC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     SCZ048>051.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ350-352-
     354.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH/DPB
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...DPB/JRL
MARINE...DPB/JRL