834
FXUS62 KCHS 121206
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
806 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Coastal low pressure will linger through today before shifting
northeast while high pressure remains inland.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Quick update to make some adjustments to hazards. The Lake Wind
Advisory has been extended through 11 am as our Pinopolis
observation site continues to report 30 knot wind gusts. The
Gale Warning for the Charleston County waters was also extended
through 11 am while all other Gale Warnings were replaced with
Small Craft Advisories. Also, the High Surf Advisory is now
expired for Charleston County. Finally, a Coastal Flood Advisory
has been issued for Charleston and coastal Colleton for minor
coastal flooding with the early afternoon high tide.

Today and Tonight: A mid-level Low will be over the Southeast
U.S. At the surface, Low pressure off our coast will gradually
move to the north. A decent gradient of moisture will persist
from west to east, with the lower PWATs remaining inland and the
highest PWATs offshore. All of the deterministic models and the
CAMs have another wet day across most of our area. The NBM
reflect this, with the highest POPs in these locations by the
afternoon, with POPs a bit lower into our GA counties. POPs
trend lower this evening and overnight. The highest QPF will be
across the Charleston Tri-County and far inland, with lower QPF
further south and along the GA coast. Also, expect gusty
northeast winds, especially along the coast. The combination of
cloudy skies, rainfall, and gusty northeast winds will keep
temperatures below normal. Highs will generally be in the 60s
for most of our counties, while the 70 degree mark may be
reached near the Altamaha River and vicinity. Lows will range
from the mid 50s far inland to the 60s closer to the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Coastal low continues its journey along the Atlantic coast,
allowing quiet conditions to return as we head into the new
week. Winds will also become notably lighter during this time,
with direction remaining out of the N/NW. In terms of
temperatures, only have highs rising into the mid to upper 70s
Monday due to lingering stratus. Otherwise, should see highs
moderate back into the upper 70s to lower 80s by Wednesday with
the aid of sunny skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Upper level ridging and sfc high pressure dominate in the
extended, keeping conditions dry across our area. High
temperatures in the mid 70s to lower 80s will be common, as lows
fall into the mid 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z TAFs: Radar shows stratiform precipitation over the
Charleston Tri-County this morning. It`s expected to overspread
the rest of SE SC and SE GA into this afternoon, bringing flight
restrictions. CHS and JZI should be borderline MVFR/IFR early
this morning before transitioning to IFR by noon. SAV should be
MVFR this morning, also transitioning to IFR by noon. There will
also be gusty winds at all of the TAF sites. Showers will
diminish this evening, first at SAV, then at CHS and JZI.
Though, IFR will probably persist at all of the TAF sites
through the end of the TAF time period.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions expected to prevail
heading into the new week.

&&

.MARINE...
Today and Tonight: Gale conditions will continue across most of
our marine zones early this morning, so we have Gale Warnings
in effect for these locations. Later this morning, winds and
seas will trend lower, so Small Craft Advisories will replace
the warnings. For the Charleston Harbor, a Small Craft Advisory
is in effect.

Monday Onward: While conditions will gradually improve heading
into the new week, could still see marine headlines persist as
long as Monday night for wind gusts and/or seas. Otherwise, look
for high pressure to build in from the northwest by Tuesday,
allowing conditions to fall below headline criteria. However,
still expect north-northeast winds to be 15 to 20 knots with
seas 3 to 5 feet.

Rip Currents: Strong northeast winds and steep seas will
support a High Risk of rip currents at all beaches today. With
decreasing winds, should see the risk of rip currents fall into
the Moderate category by Tuesday for all beaches.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Upcoming high tide (~1:15 pm): Even though winds have turned out
of the northwest, the Charleston Harbor tide gage continues to
reflect large tidal departures from water trapped within the
tidal system. The astronomical tide for the early afternoon high
tide is 6.46 ft MLLW and we appear to be on track to maintain
enough tidal departure to peak around 7.1-7.3 ft MLLW. A Coastal
Flood Advisory has been issued.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ117-
     119-139-141.
SC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     SCZ048>051.
     Lake Wind Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for SCZ045.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for
     SCZ049-050.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for AMZ330.
     Gale Warning until 11 AM EDT this morning for AMZ350.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Monday for AMZ350.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for AMZ352.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ354.
     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT Monday for AMZ374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...