816
FXUS62 KCHS 160103
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
903 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Atlantic high pressure will continue to build across the
Southeast through the week. A cold front could move through
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Tonight: Latest radar imagery indicates light to moderate showers
with a few instances of thunder occurring along coastal areas this
evening, a bulk of which is drifting offshore across the nearby
Atlantic during the past hour. The bulk of hires guidance favors a
waning trend in convection through midnight, following a typical
outcome for convection within an environment lacking strong shear
and a loss of diurnal heating. Most areas are expected to become
precip-free by around midnight, then remain dry through the
remainder of the night. Convective debris clouds should thin with
time once activity dissipates and sfc winds will become light/calm
for a bulk of the night. Another mild night is expected with lows
generally ranging in the low-mid 70s inland to around 80 degrees at
the beaches and Downtown Charleston.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A deep layered ridge will expand from the western Atlantic into
the Southeast United States early next week, bringing a pretty
typical summertime pattern to the area. High temps will increase
a degree or two each day with values in the low to mid 90s.
Dewpoints solidly in the 70s will combine to produce 100-105F
heat indices each day. Increasing mid-level subsidence should
limit diurnal convective coverage, though with 1500-2000 J/kg
CAPEs each day, isolated to scattered coverage expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The deep layered ridge will persist through late week, though a
cold front could sag into the area or pass through on Friday,
bringing a slight increase in shower and thunderstorm coverage.
Highs each day will be in the low to mid 90s with heat indices
topping out 100-105F.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Early evening showers are expected to wane and/or shift offshore by
around 02-03Z, which could lead to TEMPO MVFR conditions at JZI or
SAV terminals during the next 1-2 hours. Otherwise, expect VFR
conditions to prevail at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals through at least 15Z
Monday, and likely into early afternoon Monday, before showers and
thunderstorms develop across the region mid-late afternoon. At this
time, VCSH has been introduced at CHS/JZI terminals and VCTS at SAV
between 20-23Z Monday. Future TAF issuances could need to include
TEMPO flight restrictions should shower and/or thunderstorm
probabilities increase and timing becomes more clear.

Extended Aviation Forecast: Brief flight restrictions are
possible in showers and thunderstorms each day, mainly in the
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: Expect marine conditions to remain well below Small Craft
Advisory levels outside convection (which is waning during the next
hour or two). A typical southwest flow regime will prevail along the
northwest edge of high pressure extending across the western
Atlantic with wind speeds generally averaging between 10-15 kt
across most waters while occasional gusts up to 20 kt also being
possible during the evening. Seas will range between 2-4 ft.

Monday through Friday: A decent SW gradient will exist along
the coast Monday through Friday with a robust afternoon sea
breeze each day. Wind gusts in Charleston Harbor could top 20 kt
for a few hours each afternoon. We could be close to Small
Craft Advisory criteria Tuesday afternoon.

Rip Currents: A moderate risk for rip currents remains in place
through Monday for a 9 second swell impacting the beaches.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DPB
MARINE...DPB