840
FXUS62 KCHS 021753
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
153 PM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend across the area through late week. A
cold front will approach from the northwest late in the weekend.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Tonight: Little change to the pattern overnight as the forecast
area continues to sit between high pressure inland and an area
of low pressure offshore. We should see another quiet night with
lows dipping into the low to mid 60s. Land areas are expected
to remain dry, and we should again see some shower activity
across portions of the coastal waters through the night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Surface high pressure to the north will remain the dominant
surface feature through Friday, as broad troughing continues
aloft. Mostly dry conditions are expected for the region, though
an isolated showers/storm can`t be ruled out along our
southeastern Georgia coastline Wednesday and Thursday afternoon.
Rain chances of around 15% on Wednesday look to be driven by a
weak sea-breeze, with the rain chances on Thursday a touch
higher near 20% as a weak shortwave rounds the base of the
trough. The deterministic and ensemble Euro would suggest higher
chances closer to 40% chances, with clustering analysis not
very helpful as the Euro dominates the clusters that it is
sorted into. Regardless, 90th percentile QPF amounts are all
below a quarter of an inch, so any rain will likely be non-
impactful. Temperatures will be slowly rising throughout the
period, peaking in the 80s on Wednesday, mid 80s to lower 90s on
Thursday, and upper 80s to mid 90s on Friday. Overnight lows in
the 60s inland to lower 70s along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Weak surface high pressure builds across the southeast into the
weekend, keeping temperatures on the warmer side of normal in
the lower to mid 90s. Overnight into Sunday, a weak cold and dry
front will be sliding through the area before stalling just
offshore, possibly turning into a coastal trough, leading to a
period of unsettled conditions next week. As a result, max
temperatures on Monday begin to lower into the mid 80s to lower
90s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV
through 18z Wednesday.

Extended Aviation Forecast: Largely VFR conditions expected to
continue, with next chance for lowered flight categories
returning Thursday afternoon with scattered showers/storms.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: The local waters will continue to sit between high
pressure inland and an area of low pressure to the east. This
setup will maintain elevated northeast flow across the waters,
though the gradient should diminish a bit overnight. Speeds will
be highest through the evening hours, with gusts to around 25
knots. Gusts should then come down to around 20 knots by sunrise
Wednesday. Observations from 41004 and 41008 show that 6+ ft
seas persist across much of the local waters. Therefore, we have
extended the ongoing Small Craft Advisories for the nearshore
waters through 8pm this evening and through 6am Wednesday
morning for the outer GA waters.

Rip Currents: Moderate swell and enhanced northeast flow will
continue to support a Moderate Risk of rip currents at all
beaches through this evening.

Wednesday through Saturday: High pressure will prevail
Wednesday through Saturday, keeping marine conditions below
advisory levels. Chances for scattered showers and storms are
low, starting to increase again on Friday afternoon in offshore
waters near the Gulf.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tide levels steadily increase through the week
though the positive anomalies should start to come down by Wed
or Thu as the NE flow turns to the SE and weakens. We could come
close to 7.0 ft MLLW at Charleston for the late afternoon/early
evening high tides Wednesday through Saturday, remaining well
below action stage at Fort Pulaski.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ350-
     352-354.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...APT
LONG TERM...APT
AVIATION...BSH/APT
MARINE...BSH/APT