665
FXUS62 KCHS 161821
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
221 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Atlantic high pressure will continue to build across the
Southeast through the week. A cold front could approach the
region late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A fairly strong cap is in place today as the upper ridge
continues to build west from the Atlantic. Visible satellite
shows cumulus with relatively little vertical development.
Mesoanalysis shows in excess of 3000 J/kg SBCAPE so we could
still see scattered showers or isolated thunderstorms through
late afternoon. A bit of activity could continue into early this
evening across far south GA as outflow boundaries from Gulf
Coast convection drift north. Dry conditions expected overnight
with lows in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mid level ridge will extend across the Southeast through much of the
period, with a trough approaching late. At the surface, the forecast
area will remain on the western periphery of high pressure. Large
scale forcing for ascent is lacking so convection will largely be
driven by daytime heating and mesoscale boundaries such as the sea
breeze. Coverage will remain fairly limited with PoPs generally 20-
30% for Tuesday and Wednesday, and 30-40% for Thursday. High
temperatures will peak in the low to mid 90s away from the coast,
with humidity making it feel even hotter. Heat indices stay below
Heat Advisory criteria.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mid level ridge weakens Thursday night into Friday as a shortwave
passes across the mid-Atlantic states. A weak front will approach
the region, but it will likely stall in the vicinity and eventually
wash out. Ridging is expected to build over the eastern US over the
weekend and early next week. Isolated to scattered diurnally-driven
showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day. High
temperatures in the low to mid 90s away from the immediate coast
will combine with elevated humidity to yield heat indices mainly in
the 100-105 range most afternoons. As it stands now, conditions
remain shy of Heat Advisory criteria, but it will be something to
watch.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Conditions are considerably less favorable for convection this
afternoon due to a building ridge of high pressure. Scattered
showers could develop near any terminal through late this
afternoon but total coverage should be limited. VFR otherwise.

Extended Aviation Forecast: Brief flight restrictions are possible
in showers and thunderstorms each day, mainly in the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
A robust sea breeze will continue this afternoon along the
coast. We could see a few gusts above 20 kt in Charleston Harbor
later this afternoon. Relatively quiet conditions expected
overnight.

Tuesday through Saturday: Marine conditions are expected to stay
below Small Craft Advisory criteria through the period. Southerly
flow will persist with speeds generally 15 knots or less, except a
bit higher along the land/sea interface and Charleston Harbor each
afternoon with the sea breeze. Seas will average 2-3 feet, with some
occasional 4 footers in the outer portions of the waters.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...ETM
LONG TERM...ETM
AVIATION...JRL/ETM
MARINE...JRL/ETM