575
FXUS62 KCHS 262252
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
652 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
All sections have been updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Locally heavy rainfall is possible this evening.

- 2) Hot and humid conditions return to the South Carolina
  Lowcountry and Southeast Georgia during the middle of this
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Locally heavy rainfall is possible this evening.

The atmosphere cross the Charleston Tri-County into much of
Colleton County has been pretty well worked over in the wake of
flooding rains earlier in the afternoon. No additional flooding
is expected in this region for the remainder of the night,
although a low-end flood risk will linger for a bit across
western Colleton County through 8-9 PM or so. The Flood Watch
will likely be cancelled prior to 8 PM as a result.

A well defined outflow boundary moving southwest across the
Lowcountry will continue to zipper-line down the sea breeze and
intersect a number of lingering mesoscale boundaries across
Southeast Georgia over the next few hours. There is a continued
risk for locally heavy rainfall and possibly a strong tstm or
two, possibly even a marginal severe tstms given the amount of
lingering instability in these areas.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Hot and humid conditions return to the South Carolina
Lowcountry and Southeast Georgia in the middle of this week.

A strong mid-lvl ridge will continue to situate itself over the
Rockies and the Plains through the mid-week, while a troughing will
be apparent along the Eastern Seaboard. At the surface, weak high
pressure will also prevail through the mid-week. This will yield hot
and humid conditions throughout the week, with Tuesday and Wednesday
being the hottest days of the week. Expect daytime highs to reach
into the mid to upper 90s. There is a chance that some spots could
reach the 100 degree mark across far inland Georgia. Dewpoints are
expected to be in the low 70s far inland, and then increasing into
the mid to upper 70s at the coastline with the afternoon sea breeze.
This will equate to afternoon heat indices ranging from 100-105F
inland, and 108-114F across the coastal counties on Tuesday and
Wednesday. If this forecast trend continues, we`ll likely need to
issue a heat headlines for both days. Thereafter, the heat and
humidity will drop near normal values on Thursday with the arrival
of another front.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
27/00z TAF Discussion:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: The risk for tstms has ended at KCHS and KJZI,
but will linger through about 03z at KSAV as boundary
interactions to the north of that terminal may drive convection
south to within 10 NM. Expect VFR to prevail otherwise and
prevail through the remainder of the 00z TAF cycle at all three
sites. Isolated convection may fire near KCHS during the
afternoon Monday, so PROB30s were introduced 20-00z to account
for this. Chances look too low to include a mention at KJZI or
KSAV at this time.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Brief flight restrictions are possible
Wednesday and Thursday due to showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Through tonight: A quasi-stationary front will linger nearby as
light southwesterly flow persists across the local waters. This set-
up will likely yield isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
into the afternoon/evening hours. As southeasterly swell continues
to surge into the local waters, expect seas to range from from 2 to
3 ft.

Monday though Friday: Light to moderate winds should continue across
the local waters on Monday, before a cold front approaches from the
region. As this front inches closer, expect wind speeds to increase
on Tuesday afternoon with gusts reaching up to 25-27 kts. Therefore,
Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed for a portion of the
waters on Tuesday and Wednesday. Thereafter, marine conditions will
remain rather benign on Thursday and Friday. Seas will range from 2-
3 ft through most of period, except for briefly surging to 3-5 ft
(possible 6 footers in the offshore waters) on Tuesday evening
through Thursday morning.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

July 28:
KCHS: 101/1949
KCXM: 100/1936
KSAV: 102/1949

July 29:
KCHS: 100/1993
KCXM: 99/1999
KSAV: 103/1993

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

July 29:
KCHS: 80/2016
KCXM: 85/1999
KSAV: 82/1878

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$