322
FXUS62 KCHS 020538
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
138 AM EDT Sun Nov 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A coastal trough will reside offshore today, before lifting
north and into the area this evening and tonight. High pressure
will return Tuesday and prevail thereafter.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Today: Aloft, the upper low will continue to dive to the
southeast from the Mid MS Valley and into the Deep South. At the
surface, high pressure will set up across an area from the Mid
Atlantic to New England and ridge down into the Carolinas with a
coastal trough taking shape just offshore. The coastal trough
will likely be the most impactful feature today. First, we
expect to see stratocumulus within the trough begin to spread
onshore this morning across the counties of southeast SC and
especially the Charleston Tri-County region. Then as we head
into the afternoon there is excellent model support for isolated
to scattered showers forced by the coastal trough lifting
northward and onshore across primarily the Tri-County region.
There are some differences depending on the model solution of
choice regarding the timing of showers, but generally favors the
afternoon. Rainfall amounts will be light, with no more than a
few hundredths of an inch expected in any one location.
Temperatures are could be tricky thanks to increasing cloud
cover and shower potential across portions of southeast SC, and
then increasing cloud cover across southeast GA late. Overall,
upper 60s to low 70s expected in most areas.

Tonight: The upper low will steadily shift eastward through the
night and should be centered over the Savannah River by sunrise
Monday. Available moisture will increase across the area with
precipitable water values rising into the 1-1.25" range in the
evening, coincident with forcing from the upper low aloft and
isentropic ascent in the low levels. Model guidance (hi-res as
well as global models) support increasing precipitation coverage
across the forecast area. Rainfall amounts should be on the
light side, with peak amounts mostly in the 0.10-0.20" range.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A closed mid level low will be overhead at the start of the
period/Monday morning. This low will progress east and offshore
during the day. Isolated to scattered light showers could linger
in the morning, then coverage should decrease through the
afternoon as the best forcing and moisture exits to the east.
Highs will stay cooler, peaking in the mid to upper 60s. Lows
Monday night will range from the low 40s inland to around
50/lows at the immediate coast.

Surface high pressure will expand across the area for Tuesday
and Wednesday. Broad ridging aloft extending from the Gulf coast
on Tuesday will flatten, leading to more zonal flow for
Wednesday. Quiet and dry weather expected as PWats fall below
0.50 inches. Temperatures will return to normal with highs in
the low to mid 70s by Wednesday. Favorable radiational cooling
conditions Tuesday night will bring lows down to around 40
inland, with some spots dropping into the upper 30s. Mid/upper
40s are expected closer to the coast, and even more mild at the
beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A weak front will pass through on Thursday, but moisture is
lacking so it should come through dry. High pressure will then
briefly return, before another front possibly approaches the
area early next weekend. Forecast is currently rain-free through
the period. Temperatures will trend on the warmer side of early
November normals.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The 06z TAF period begins with VFR conditions at KCHS, KJZI,
and KSAV. For today, the main concern will be increasing clouds
in the VFR level at KCHS and KJZI, as well as the potential for
isolated to scattered showers nearby. Conditions should remain
VFR until very late in the TAF period when light rain is
expected to break out with ceilings lowering into the MVFR and
possibly even the IFR range. This would likely occur as early as
03-04z and then extend beyond the 06z TAF period. The best
chance for rain and restricted ceilings will be at KCHS and
KJZI.

Extended Aviation Forecast: Flight restrictions could linger
into Monday morning, then VFR will return later Monday into mid
week.

&&

.MARINE...
Today through tonight: Overall, no significant concerns for the
local waters. Northeast winds in the 10-15 knot range are
expected today, turning more northerly overnight. A few gusts up
to 20 knots will be possible in the Charleston County waters
where the gradient is expected to be tightest. Seas aren`t
expected to be higher than 2-3 feet.

Tuesday through Saturday: High pressure will build in from the
west Monday into Tuesday, with a tight pressure gradient
maintaining elevated north winds. Gusts could approach 25 knots
with seas of 6 feet Monday night into Tuesday over portions of
the waters, particularly the nearshore Charleston County and
outer Georgia waters. A Small Craft Advisory could be needed.
Winds and seas should subside Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Conditions should stay below advisory criteria the remainder of
the period as high pressure largely dominates.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Elevated tide cycles are expected this week due to the upcoming
full moon and perigee. Coastal flooding will be possible with
the morning high tides along the entire southeast South Carolina
and Georgia coast, especially as we head towards the middle of
the week when base astronomical levels are already at or near
minor flooding thresholds. Coastal Flood Advisories will be
likely. However, there is still considerable uncertainty with
how high the tides will reach since levels will greatly depend
on the wind direction. Most models, including the national
blended solution, are largely showing more northerly, even
somewhat north- northwest/offshore winds, through at least
Thursday. These wind directions would be less conducive to
pushing tide levels much higher than the base astronomical
levels. We will continue to monitor the latest model trends.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...ETM
LONG TERM...ETM
AVIATION...BSH/ETM
MARINE...BSH/ETM